A bumper program has been assembled for Rosehill this Saturday, where a crack bunch of three year olds will contest the $400,000 Group ll Hobartville Stakes (1400m), featuring the return to racing of crack colt Press Statement. The weather is overcast, the track is good (3) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.
Race One (12:40) : Spark Of Life Handicap 1100m:
Back Me: 5 To Be Sure (Best Odds: $2.50) resumes here for Bjorn Baker and I am keen on this daughter of Not A Single Doubt. She had one run back in October under the lights at Canterbury and was dominant in winning. Recent trial here win was great, on the minimum and meets a thin field…ticks all the boxes.
Big Danger: 2 Redzel (Best Odds: $3.00) resumed last Wednesday at Warwick Farm where he was a short priced favourite and she let punters down badly when running second to Floral Insight, who started bolters odds. Bowman sticks and the blinkers are back on, which could spark improvement.
Roughie: 1 Zoutenant (Best Odds: $8.00) was specked at odds when resuming in the Eskimo Prince and just failed badly behind Spill The Beans, but he didn’t pull up 100% afterwards, so perhaps there were excuses. I will respect the market push he had there, and as stated earlier, this quite a thin race.
Race Two (13:20) : Ranvet Handicap (92) 1500m:
Back Me: 1 Timeless Prince (Best Odds: $6.50) lapped up the heavy 10 surface to win the Sunshine Coast Cup (1400m) before backing up six days later and running a very unlucky second to Jopa at Doomben. Returns to Sydney full of confidence and with the claim for Andrew Adkins, as well as gate one, he is a definite winning chance.Roughie:
Big Danger: 4 Marenostro (Best Odds: $3.80) ran over this track/distance last time out and ran well but was no match for his stablemate Start Wondering. The dry track and big weight are the two negatives, but he is hard fit and rarely runs a bad race.
Roughie: 3 Great Esteem (Best Odds: $5.50) beat home Start Wondering here two back before going to the Randwick mile behind Snippets Land, and was disappointing in running last of the quintet. I think he is better when he has something to chase, not leading, so he can improve.
Race Three (13:55) : TAB Highway Plate (Class 3) 1100m:
Back Me: Horses with genuine city form generally perform well here, so I’ll go with 6 Rose Of Man (Best Odds: $2.20), who ran well two back behind Felines before going to a Highway a fortnight back and ran a game third to All Summer Long. Tommy Berry remains on and despite drawing a tricky gate, I think she is the one to beat in a tough race.
Roughie: 4 Beau Tirage (Best Odds: $2.30) resumes here for Keith Dryden. This talented gelding had four runs last prep, with the last two resulting with city places, the second one behind subsequent Group l performer Mogador. No trials, but well weighted, has the city form, and trainers based south of Sydney have dominated the Highway races.
Roughie: 11 Still Missing (Best Odds: $51.00) ran over 1000m at Canberra last time out and tried hard but had to settle for second to Lot Three Four One, who ran well at Newcastle on Thursday. Looks the leader here and she will only carry 54kg after the claim for Winona Costin.
Race Four (14:30) : Uvex Silver Slipper Stakes 1100m:
Back Me: 2 Astern (Best Odds: $1.50) looks the one to beat. This Godolphin colt created a big impression in winning on debut at Randwick in December, winning by a space and running smart time. Recent Warwick Farm trial win was great, and he should stamp his Golden Slipper credentials here.
Big Danger: 3 Defcon (Best Odds: $3.70) made his long awaited debut here in the Canonbury where he cruised up to win the race, but couldn’t quite finish the race off and had to settle for second to impressive all the way winner Tessera. Looked good in a trial here on Monday, so that’s alright. The worry I have is that he is a 1000m horse. We will find out here.
Roughie: 5 Mount Panorama (Best Odds: $9.00) looks the knockout horse. He ran third in the Canonbury and was game in defeat considering he was stuck three wide no cover for the entire trip yet kept coming on the line. Draws barrier one here, hard fit…$9 looks tremendous overs.
Race Five (15:05) : Galmet Millie Fox Stakes 1300m:
Back Me: 2 Catkins (Best Odds: $2.20) just picks herself here. Her Group l credentials are suspect, but any other lower below and she is near unbeatable. Didn’t set the world on fire in her first trial, but the second and latest trial was much, much better. Should get the gun run and take a power of beating.
Big Danger: 1 First Seal (Best Odds: $3.10) returns to the track after nearly a year off the scene. Class mare that resumes for John Thompson who has trialled twice for her return to racing, the latest at Warwick Farm when cruising to the line behind Terravista. Wonderful effort if she is to win off the layoff, which I doubt she can do, but class will carry her a long way.
Roughie: 4 Telepathic (Best Odds: $11.00) has residual fitness as she raced through the latter part of the Spring and Summer. Trialled behind Arcadian at Warwick Farm and worked home well without being pressured. Best form is over further, and this is a tough race, but she could fill a first four spot.
Race Six (15:45) : Hyland Sportsyear Handicap (82) 1350m:
Back Me: 5 Sweet Fire (Best Odds: $3.70) was given a lovely ride from Rory Hutchings to win over the Randwick mile last time out, which was on January 23. Trialled really well here on Monday, back to 1350m is no issue and Hutchings remains on, so she ticks plenty of boxes.
Roughie: 10 Man Of Choice (Best Odds: $7.00) creates plenty of interest here. He is a very good three year old who resumes here for Luke Price. He hasn’t raced since failing in the Victoria Derby behind Tarzino where he was a tired horse. No trials leading in, but he has class and a stack of upside.
Big Danger: 3 Religify (Best Odds: $11.00) is on the back up from last Saturday at Randwick where he sat on speed and stuck on alright late in the piece when running fourth to Supreme Effort, beaten three lengths. Returns to his home track and Tommy Berry is back on, and he does get on well with the horse.
Race Seven (16:25) : CRC Hobartville Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: 1 Press Statement (Best Odds: $2.35) picks himself here. The star colt resumes for Chris Waller after a pretty good Spring, which ended with a painless victory in the Caulfield Guineas. Race and Stud career defining campaign for this horse and I am confident he can start 2016 on a winning note.
Big Danger: 8 Spill The Beans (Best Odds: $6.00) was well backed when resuming in the Eskimo Prince and that support was justified as he led all the way and beat his rivals with a bit of ease. He has fitness on his side and is now back on his home track.
Roughie: 13 Balmain Boy (Best Odds: $51.00) at $81? Please…wrong odds. He resumed against the older horses over 1400m at Randwick a fortnight back and worked home strongly late to run fourth to Heavens Above. Concede this is much harder, but at the price, I think he is worth a place ticket for sure.
Race Eight (17:05) : Pacific Hoists Parramatta Cup 1900m:
Back Me: Best bet of the day looks to be here in the shape of 8 Allergic (Best Odds: $2.60), who has really found his best since coming to Sydney, winning two races very impressively in the space of seven days. Bit harder here, but he is the best horse in the race and should take a power of beating.
Big Danger: 7 Libran (Best Odds: $5.00) looks the perfect Sydney Cup horse. He kicked off his 2016 over the mile at Randwick and closed off strongly late behind all the way winner Bull Point. He’ll improve fitness wise, home track and will love the step up to 1900m.
Roughie: The value looks to lie with 9 Alpha Beat (Best Odds: $9.00). He was a super first up winner before stepping up to 1400m at Randwick when running third to Heavens Above despite lumping 61.5kg. Drops 7.5kg in weight and will love the extra trip.
Race Nine (17:45) : Get Well Kerrie Wilson Sprint (93) 1100m:
Back Me: 8 Happy Galaxy (Best Odds: $34.00) looks a great value bet on an each way basis. He resumed over 1000m at Randwick and just didn’t let down on the wet track behind Felines. Back onto a firmer track here, draws well and gets the claim for Andrew Adkins. Could be a blowout in the get out stakes.
Big Danger: 3 Got The Goss (Best Odds: $11.00) ran in that same Felines race and ran a very game third, but he arguably could have won had the track been firmer. It will be here, but the negative is that he draws wide. If he can get cover and a drag into the straight, he’ll go close to knocking this field off.
Roughie: 2 Territory (Best Odds: $34.00) has been given a six week freshen up since failing at Canterbury where he had his chance. Another that draws awkwardly, but he has class and will love the dry track.
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 8 Allergic
NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 1 Press Statement
VALUE: Race Nine Number 8 Happy Galaxy
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 3, 4, 5, 7, 10
Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 5, 8, 12, 13
Leg Three: 7, 8, 9
Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 8, 10
$50 Investment= 9.52% of the dividend if successful.
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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