Adam Page gives us his runner by runner preview for tomorrow’s Australian Cup at Flemington racecourse, view his analysis, tips and selections.
1. Shocking
2009 Melbourne Cup winner who looks ready to rumble in this. Was solid in the Orr then chimed in well at Caulfield but fitness found him out late. Corey Brown said after the race the horse didn’t handle the firm track so the rain forecast brings him right into contention on his home track. Out of all of these horses, he is the clear top pick at WFA over 2000m.
2. Scenic Shot
Had no hope behind Vesper last start after that horse crawled in front then sprinted home. He has been ok this time in but he’d need to improve to feature.
3. Heart Of Dreams
Was a tough ride by Olly but the horse was good enough to win the St George last start. He isn’t a 2000m horse, but this is a weak race bar one or two horses so if ever he was going to win a 2000m Group one, it’s this race.
4. C’est La Guerre
Did nothing in the Futurity when resuming. He can bob up near the finish once in a while and if he puts his best foot forward, he can fill a placing.
5. Precedence
Very good run behind Heart Of Dreams when finishing second. He’ll be a lot better for that run and is back to his home track. Bart is looking for his 14th Australian Cup and he has the right horse here. Big chance.
6. Ginga Dude
If he jumps well he’ll lead very easily here. Bombed the start in the St George and didn’t lead yet he kept grinding away late to finish fourth. That was his first run in two months so he’ll be fitter and rates as a chance.
7. Mourayan
Was sent forward last Saturday and battled away well behind Laristan. Not sure he is up to these though.
8. Alcopop
Finally won again when taking out the Kilmore Cup. Can he go on with it here? I don’t think so but stranger things have happened.
9. Moudre
Hailed by many as a genuine 2011 Melbourne Cup contender. Was ordinary in the Orr then ran his race in patches behind Heart Of Dreams. He is back at Flemington, stepping up to 2000m and is a definite chance.
10. Linton
Another handy type from Team Williams. Was ok in the Orr before running an eye catcher in the St George when making up good ground late. A hope at odds.
11. Cedaberg
Good type from the Pat Carey stable. Looked to have won the Mornington Cup but was grabbed by Guyno late. Back to 2000m which will help, he’ll be on the speed and he might just give some cheek. First four contender.
12. Lord Pyrus
Was given the run of the race by Jimmy Cassidy behind Heart Of Dreams, stalking that horse before weakening to finish fifth. Has talent, and will get the same run here, but WFA conditions may find him out.
13. Mr Charlie
Looks a nice horse to follow as the distances get longer. Look for him to run on but I don’t think he can win here.
14. Laristan
He filled my wallet last Saturday thanks to a good win at Flemington. He is a very good horse, all he needs a dryish track to feature. I think he is the knockout horse.
15. Playing God
Was most unlucky last Saturday in the Guineas when failing to get a clear run until the final 300m when flashing home for third. A star from Western Australia, can he beat the big boys here? With the right run, he can.
Selections (Not in order): 1 Shocking, 5 Precedence, 14 Laristan, 15 Playing God
Written by Adam Page
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