20/3/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Mornington, Mornington Cup day

Nine races have been set down for Mornington on Saturday where it is Mornington Cup Day, with the winner getting ballot exemption for the Caulfield Cup. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

Mornington Cup 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Mornington Cup

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Bludger of a race to start the meeting. On top is 6 Swamp Vixen (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) for the McEvoy camp. Debuted over 1200m at Ballarat when on speed and looked to travel well. When clicked up by Currie, the response was there and she was strong in winning. 1500m should be fine and this race is very thin.

1 Micro (Bet Now: $2.00 TOP ODDS) has had a few chances to win a race but has been thereabouts this time in. Somewhat overachieved I thought in the VRC Sires. Was helped by barrier one and a soft tempo, but he stuck on pretty to run third. The depth overall isn’t strong and only has to hold his form to be around the mark.

4 Draconian (Bet Now: $41.00 TOP ODDS) has home track advantage and that should hold him in good stead for this. Debuts for Patrick Caboche and interesting to note he had a prep in the Spring without racing. Tipped out and has had two jumpouts this time in. He could sneak a first four with the right run in transit.

Bludger of a race as well. Majority of these can’t be trusted. Few weeks ago, you’d be mad to suggest you can trust 7 Snoano (Bet Now: $10.00 TOP ODDS), but after a couple of impressive wins, I think you can in a race like this. Broke his Australian duck at the Valley two back then proved that was no fluke with a spanking last Wednesday at Sandown. Back to 2000m is the little query, but holds a good spot from the draw and I think can win again.

4 Grand Promenade (Bet Now: $2.30 TOP ODDS) has the Maher/Eustace factor and we know that stable in 2000m+ races is going at around 25-26%, so they can be trusted at this distance range despite this horse being first up. Interesting to see what path they head towards, but the race is thin and has less convictions than most.

1 Norway (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS) is an interesting runner. Formerly with Chris Waller, had his first run for Peter Moody in the Stony Creek Cup when heavily backed and I thought he had his chance in a plain effort behind Skelm. Any hint of his best and he’d spank these. Just hasn’t produced it since coming to Australia.

1 Garvoc (Bet Now: $3.80 TOP ODDS) looks a safe option in a tricky race for the females. Three runs for the Price/Kent team have been pretty good. Resumed with a strong win at Geelong before being luckless at the Valley. She then raced at Sandown last Wednesday and again was luckless. Should have won when a close up second to Boom Boom Becker. Soft draw, senior jock on, looks her race.

10 Diamondesque (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS) is a Team Snowden filly that takes on the Mares but I feel she is racing well. Far from disgraced two back in the Typhoon Tracy before going to Sandown when close up in a good race I think behind Redeel. Racing well and is a leading chance against this lot.

Always have to respect Mornington runners on their home track and that does apply to the in form 3 Arigato (Bet Now: $14.00 TOP ODDS). Put together a couple of wins on the bounce prior to racing at Sandown her past two where she has been okay and far from disgraced. Drawn wide, but has early toe to navigate that.

I am hoping for an aggressive ride from Froggy aboard 4 Music Addition (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS). This horse does tend to race best when either leading or on the fence, so hoping that eventuates here. Just did too much work on speed on the Parks track last time in a total forgive behind Taken Off. If he can find the front and get control, he’ll take catching.

3 Maritana (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) is unbeaten at Mornington, winning 3/3, and I dare say this would be a target race for his kick off. Did a pretty good job last prep, which ended with a solid third in the Donald Cup behind the then flying Vungers. Liked his recent trial and Carleen Hefel rides him better than anyone.

1 Design Rouge (Bet Now: $8.50 TOP ODDS) has home track advantage and comes here as a last start winner after taking out the VOBIS Gold El Dorado at Echuca. Sat back off the speed before Billy Egan presented him clear air and he surged hard late for a strong win. Can get the cart across via Music Addition and run a bold race.

I’m with 7 Sapphire Crown (Bet Now: $4.80) for Colin Little. Resumed with a win down the straight at Flemington on Rapid Racing Day before going to Rosehill where he was helped by a slow tempo but stuck on pretty well when third to a smart one in Andermatt. Runner up Vulpine came out to win a Group lll so that clearly reads well for a race like this.

1 Sartorial Splendor (Bet Now: $4.60) has speed to burn and will look the winner for a long way. He resumed in a 955m race and just went way too hard in front. There was a 200m split he went under ten seconds, which is just low flying. Did a good job to stick on like he did. Hard to beat with a more conservative time near the speed.

2 Humzz (Bet Now: $7.50) is racing very well this time in for Jamie Edwards. 1100m was a query with him last start at Ballarat but once he got control in front, it was race over and he was strong to the line in getting the job done. Back to 1000m I see as a positive and should get a lovely run from the draw.

I’m keen to see 8 Abreed (Bet Now: $12.00) resume. Andrew Noblet trained three year old that I dare say has eyes towards the SA Derby. Created a good impression in his first prep during the Summer. Won like a really good horse on debut at Geelong before going to Sandown where the race shape was against but was still great in defeat when third. Closed off strongly in a recent jumpout and 1600m fresh I like.

Have to respect the Australian Guineas form that 2 Dom To Shoot (Bet Now: $2.90) brings. He was good fresh in the CS Hayes, then in the Guineas, thought he was entitled to do a bit more. Lunar Fox won the Guineas and he came out to run a blinder in the All Star Mile, so the form does look stronger than what it probably first looked.

7 Black Penn (Bet Now: $7.00) is progressive and is a leading contender. Greg Eurell trains this gelding, who resumed over 1400m at Pakenham. Lobbed into a lovely spot under Thornton and despite being urged on the turn, he picked up and really put them away late to win well. Harder here, but a knockout chance.

7 Mount Popa (Bet Now: $2.60) should book his Caulfield Cup spot with a win here. Bob of the head stopped him beating Shared Ambition fresh. Had a few weeks off and ran in the Randwick City Stakes where he looked a good thing on paper and duly saluted. He handles all conditions and I can only see upside with him.

4 Irish Flame (Bet Now: $7.00) is on the quick back up for Brett Scott after racing last Saturday at the Valley where he sat back off a very fast speed and worked to the line with real purpose late in the piece, just getting edged out by a class horse in Persan. This has been a target race for him and comes here with the right platform.

2 Chapada (Bet Now: $7.00) looks hard to beat. He was specked at a price in the Australian Cup and under Stackhouse, who gave him a peach steer, he tried his heart out. Just couldn’t quite get there when close up behind Homesman. Fitter and up to 2400m, he clearly appeals against this lot I’d suggest.

I think you just have to be with 1 Ancestry (Bet Now: $1.95). Had conditions to suit last Saturday at the Valley, but he was still so dominant and went 0.6 seconds off the track record, and did it being eased up late. Dry track, control from the front…give him those two things and he is quite a hard horse to run down.

11 Laverrod (Bet Now: $6.00) certainly has the engine under the hood to give this a shake. Just a matter of where he is at. First two runs back suggested he was ready to win third up, but thought he had his chance at Echuca and was disappointing. His best is clearly good enough, so giving him one more chance.

12 I’m Telling Ya (Bet Now: $16.00) is racing really well for the Yargi camp. Ran down the Flemington straight, a track he generally saves his best for. He got back off a moderate speed and worked to the line pretty well late. Form out of that has been strong. He then went to Echuca and was good in defeat once again, this time behind Design Rouge. On his home track here, has to be respected.

6 Wyclif (Bet Now: $7.50) for me in the get out in what looks a very even race. He resumed over 1400m at Sandown where he was back near last in the run and though he was never a winning threat, liked the way he finished his race off behind Fighting Harada. Think that reads well for a race like this and the extra ground appeals.

14 Flandersrain (Bet Now: $7.00) can bounce back. Led throughout and spanked them two back at Sandown before attempting to repeat the dose at Ballarat. She tried hard but couldn’t quite finish it off and tired late to run fourth to Intellective. Think with a bunny to chase, she’ll be more effective.

2 Miyake (Bet Now: $31.00) will have eyes on races over further, but he does have a touch of quality. Resumes for Chris Waller and returns to racing as a gelding. Did a good job last prep, winning a couple in town. Interesting he has been gelded, and while he is better suited over a longer trip, wouldn’t shock to see him run well.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 7 Mount Popa

NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 1 Garvoc

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 6 Wyclif

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 4, 7, 8

Leg Two: 7

Leg Three: 1, 8, 11, 12

Leg Four: 2, 5, 6, 10, 14

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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