The Melbourne Spring Carnival wraps up this Saturday with the stand alone program at Ballarat for Ballarat Cup Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out two metres from the 450m-Winning Post; True for the remainder.
Race One (12:25) : Sam Miranda Handicap (78) 1200m:
Back Me: 2 Cheeky Babe (Bet Now: $2.40), on face value, was disappointing when defeated two back at Warrnambool, but she was beaten by Another Diamond and of course that mare has gone on to bigger and better things. Cheeky Babe then went to the Valley and was given a lovely ride from Mick Dee to get the job done over an in form mare in Entrancing. See no reason to jump off her here. Happy to be with her.
Big Danger: 5 Diamond Baroness (Bet Now: $4.80) resumed on Kyneton Cup Day where she seemingly had the race won but she just had no answer to the brilliant finish of Moonlites Choice, who failed with excuses at Sandown. This mare gets really good weight relief here and she does race very well when produced second up. Perhaps looking for slightly further but I think she’ll go close here.
Long Shot: 7 Jacqui’s Joy (Bet Now: $11.00) resumed behind Cheeky Babe in that Valley race mentioned above where she had late market support at a price and though those punters weren’t rewarded, she finished off well late in the piece. She’ll be better suited on the bigger track, which she gets here, and she does race well second up. Massive chance if she gets a drag up and ambushes late.
Race Two (13:00) : City Of Ballarat Tonks Plate 1200m:
Back Me: I think 8 Aurelius Hero (Bet Now: $31.00) is a great each way bet in a tough race. He worked home hard from the back when racing on Bendigo Cup Day two back before going to Ararat Cup Day where he got back on a leaders track yet still finished off with purpose to run fourth to Chapel Road. He has a really good record at Bendigo, gets decent weight relief and the small field will ensure he isn’t far away.
Big Danger: 3 Believe Yourself (Bet Now: $3.50) is such an interesting runner. Formerly with Gerald Ryan and he took the filly towards a very good fourth in the 2014 Slipper. She was then sent to Singapore and though she didn’t quite go on with it, she still ran encouraging races. Back down under and is with the Waterhouse/Bott stable, and though her trial win wasn’t flash, she did win and was solid through the line. She has the class edge but market will be the guide.
Long Shot: 2 It Is Written (Bet Now: $6.00) ran in a 55 Second heat at the Valley last Friday night and pretty much just put a pen through that run given that night saw backmarkers have pretty much no hope of winning. The run prior behind Sir Bacchus was an absolute beauty (Redkirk Warrior has come out and won) and on that run, he’ll take a stack of beating.
Race Three (13:35) : VOBIS Gold Eureka Stockade 1400m:
Back Me: 3 Urban Ruler (Bet Now: $2.60) hasn’t raced since September 24 when leading all the way at Morphettville Parks, where Holder gave him a lovely time of it on speed and despite winning narrowly the form looks okay. Freshen up should do him good and prior to that he ran well behind Detective at Flemington. That reads well for this.
Big Danger: 4 Gratwick (Bet Now: $7.50) proved too good for them in the maiden win at the Bool before going to Echuca where he beat bar an above average type in Ashlor, who was close up on Cup Day. He then ran last Saturday in the Hilton and really the run was inconclusive behind Souchez. Didn’t have the best of luck in the straight and perhaps was galloped on at the start when bumping with Tessera. He is better than that and if you take out a couple of these runners, this is a thin race.
Long Shot: 9 Toffatin (Bet Now: $5.00) debuted on his home track at Warrnambool and I’m not sure about how strong the maiden was, but he did produce a lovely turn of foot when asked for the effort by Jarrod Fry and won with a bit of class and authority. He should only have upside from that and he gets the services of in form hoop Blake Shinn.
Race Four (14:10) : Magic Millions 2YO Clockwise Classic 1000m:
Back Me: 8 Sima Yi (Bet Now: $9.50) is a colt that debuts for the Gary Moore off the back of two trials in Sydney, the latest resulting in a narrow but impressive win to the eye. Bred to come to hand early and importantly, he does have decent experience racing clockwise. If he handles the trip south and does everything right, I think he will take some beating.
Big Danger: 10 Garrard (Bet Now: $5.00) is a Sepoy filly that debuts for the Busuttin/Young stable. Yet to make a public appearance but is well bred given the mare did look sharp in her lone appearance, albeit a trial from yesteryear. Market watch for sure.
Long Shot: 5 Despatch (Bet Now: $9.00) is a Written Tycoon that debuts for the low flying Tony McEvoy yard. He comes here off the back of a sharp trial win back home at Morphettville on October 24, winning narrowly but impressively and running decent time compared to the rest of the trials that morning. Stable have had a fab start to the season juveniles wise and this bloke looks handy himself.
Race Five (14:45) : SUEZ Mckellar Mile (70) 1600m:
Back Me: 5 Galaxy Raider (Bet Now: $2.40) had gone off the boil a bit after such a promising start to his career, but the punters knew what they were doing with him last start at Sale where he started around $1.50 and absolutely bolted in, showing a lovely turn of foot when asked by Nolen to win quite easily. That would have done his confidence the world of good and I think he can right on with it here.
Big Danger: 9 Dollar For Dollar (Bet Now: $3.50) is the interesting runner here. He is a High Chaparral four year old that is first up for Tony McEvoy after quite a promising start to his career, winning one of his two starts. He did trial in Mid August but was freshened up and trialled well last week at Cranbourne. He was strong on debut at 1500m, so 1600m here fresh is no issue.
Long Shot: 11 Quedoutes (Bet Now: $21.00) doesn’t have the greatest record beside his name, but he has always shown good ability and his two runs back this time in have been super, starting off on a bottomless track when a close up fifth to Light ‘N’ Fire before racing under the lights at Pakenham and making up a stack of ground when fourth to Lola Lu. He has enormous upside and the Ballarat mile with Froggy steering looks an ideal recipe for him to run a beauty.
Race Six (15:25) : Thomas Jewellers Handicap (70) 1100m:
Back Me: 4 Chapel Road (Bet Now: $11.00) was a drifter when racing on Ararat Cup Day last time out and aided by a peach on speed steer from Jake Noonan, the four year old gelding clung on for a narrow but impressive victory. Gets map favours once again here I suspect from the gate, he’s getting fitter and he is starting to build up a tidy record. Hard to beat.
Long Shot: 10 Punt Club (Bet Now: $6.50) is racing on his home track for the first time but has to be regarded here as a chance at odds. He performed very well last time in, ending the prep with a strong win on the Geelong Synthetic. Looked to trial really well at Cranbourne behind Weather The Storm and Popovich, both well above average gallopers. Performs well fresh and is down in the weights.
Long Shot: 7 Make A Mark (Bet Now: $10.00) is a talented Team Hawkes galloper who should be given another chance. He resumed under the lights at Canterbury and was a big flop when last to Grunderzeit but he did appear to pull hard in front and rightfully faded out of it. Trials leading in were too good to ignore off one run and Shinn steers. Sharp improver on his best form.
Race Seven (16:00) : Magic Millions 3YO & 4YO Classic 1100m:
Back Me: 1 Golden Spin (Bet Now: $5.00) was first up after a near nine month break over the 955m at the Valley and he was a real eye catcher late behind Another Diamond, sitting back in the ruck and finishing off with real purpose. Was down to run in a hot sprint race on Oaks Day but instead was scratched and instead runs here, which seems a more likely winning assignment. Great chance.
Big Danger: 3 Secret Agenda (Bet Now: $3.00) is a classy mare that will love returning to a track with give in it. That can be used as an excuse for her two failures since a dominant fresh win in the How Now at Caulfield. In saying that, last start on Cup Day, she did make up ground late behind Flippant. Massive threat if she brings her best form.
Long Shot: 8 Oak Door (Bet Now: $12.00) might have only come through a maiden win on Kyneton Cup Day but there was a bit to like about the effort. He did appear to be somewhat struggling on the turn but once he balanced up and put his mind to it, he drew clear late and won well. Runner up won last week at Dunkeld so the form stacks up and though poorly weighted, and that I doubt he can win, I give him a sneaky place chance.
Race Eight (16:40) : Sportsbet.com.au Ballarat Cup 2200m:
Back Me: 18 Cool Chap (Bet Now: $6.50) for me here in what looks a pretty solid edition of the Ballarat Cup. He is on the seven day back up after racing in the Eclipse last Saturday where he just couldn’t let down nearer the inside and on the firm track, something that McEvoy stated post race. He’ll get good cushion in the track here, and last time he raced beyond 2000m was in the SA Derby when running third. That reads well for this.
Big Danger: 14 Nozomi (Bet Now: $9.50) ran over 2000m on Stakes Day at Flemington and tried hard all the way but was just simply no match for the awesome performance of Little White Cloud. Stable have been very patient with him and he is now getting out to his ideal trip. Two starts beyond 2000m have seen him win a Geelong Classic and run third in a Victoria Derby. Class is there and now the fitness is.
Long Shot: 11 Lady Le Fay (Bet Now: $10.00) is the clear knockout runner and can easily blow this field away. A combination of bias and poor rides have cost her at her last two starts. She has run well, but on face value it may not seem so. It will be interesting to see what Newitt does because there is no designated leader here and she does have tactical early speed if required and she does appear very well weighted.
Race Nine (17:20) : Hertz Handicap (78) 2300m:
Back Me: 9 I’ll Fly Away (Bet Now: $6.00) is a really promising mare that comes here for Darren Weir after really attacking the line to win last Friday night at the Valley over 2040m, chasing hard from around the 600m mark when she came off the bit but she kept finding to get the job done. She’ll eat up the 2300m here, there’s upside and I think the bigger track will only suit her better.
Big Danger: 14 Otherwise Okay (Bet Now: $15.00) ran over 1800m on Cup Day at Morphettville and really, given where he was on the turn, he really had no right to win the race but he just savaged the line to grab Le Grand Clu right on the peg. That horse turned it up last week after bolting in the run, so the strength of the form isn’t great, but it’s hard to ignore what he did and stable is flying.
Long Shot: 11 Rakti Roulette (Bet Now: $17.00) had the charmed run and rightfully bolted up two back at Cranbourne before going to Cranbourne where he just looked to do a bit too much work on speed and just felt the pinch the final 100m when third to Racing Writer. I think he is better when he gets cover and is allowed time to relax, so I think if that eventuates here, he can definitely bounce back into the winners list.
Race Ten (17:55) : Isuzu Handicap (84) 1400m:
Back Me: 9 Duibio (Bet Now: $3.10) looks one of the better bets on the program. He resumed on Bendigo Cup Day and for the most part, he was under hard riding and seemingly doing nothing but when he found clear air, he savaged the line late to run a close up second to Chase The Horizon, who has since failed with excuses. Second up last prep he produced an unbelievable finish to win a stronger race down the straight at Flemington. If we get a rain affected track, that could be his downfall, but the fresh effort is too good to ignore.
Long Shot: 7 Glenrowan Prince (Bet Now: $11.00) had good market support at a price when racing at Bendigo over 1300m last Wednesday and those who got on were rewarded when he showed a nice turn of foot to get the job done. Suspect at 1400m, but on that last start effort, and with a significant weight drop, he’ll take some beating, and I think he will be generous odds once again. Perhaps an each way ticket.
Long Shot: 3 Hijack Hussy (Bet Now: $15.00) cannot be trusted but gee on her best form she’d be right in this. First up down the straight on Cup Day behind Flippant was just okay, but I think she just didn’t handle the course. Better around a bend, up to 1400m and second up last time in she savaged the line in the Gold Bracelet on the standalone Bendigo program.
BEST BET: Race Nine Number 9 I’ll Fly Away
NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 1 Golden Spin
VALUE: Race Two Number 8 Aurelius Hero
Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):
Leg One: 1, 3, 6
Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 5, 11, 12, 14, 18
Leg Three: 9
Leg Four: 2, 7, 8, 9, 12
$50 Investment= 41.66% of the dividend if successful
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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