15/9/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Newcastle, Newcastle Cup day

An eight race card has been set down for Newcastle on Friday for Newcastle Cup Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Newcastle Cup 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Newcastle Cup

3 Pushy… (Bet Now:  $SP.00) beware the unbeaten horse. Michael Freedman trained three year old that is 2/2 to start his career, the latest win coming just under four weeks ago over 1400m here when giving them a start and a beating in an impressive display. Tick over trial was a good piece of work and he does look a three year old that could put his hand up for the Spring Champion so keen to see how he goes.

7 Orzala (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a talented mare for John O’Shea that has to be given another look. She ran last Wednesday on the Kenso at Randwick when doing work out wide and I reckon that early burn just told late in the piece behind Tropical Squall on a day where up/in was dynamite, so I am being forgiving. That said, this track is every chance to be the same, so if you are a fan of her, you’d like a positive steer.

2 Twigman (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a son of Preferment for Paul Shailer that resumes. He hasn’t raced since being thrown in the deep end in the Australian Derby where he found the class and bog track a bridge too far when down the track behind Major Beel. Two trials to get ready for his return…he is a nice horse. Not sure he wins here, but is a first four threat.

Leaning towards 1 Alvina’s Luck (Bet Now:  $SP.00). Ron Quinton trained gelding that has been strong in two career outings but the racing pattern is somewhat not ideal so hopefully that can change here. He ran in a strong 1300m maiden here last time where he got a mile out of his ground but loved the way he found the line late. Hard fit and up to 1400m, he’ll take beating if he can settle closer.

2 Ahuriri (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a key threat. Daughter of Almanzor for Chris Waller that debuted at the midweeks at Sandown back on July 19 where she got back off the speed and closed her race with purpose, just missing out on the win when second to Flying Concello. Kept up to the mark with a tick over trial and up to 1400m, she appeals.

8 Yarraville (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one I can entertain for wider multiples. This filly debuted at Wyong over 1200m where she just looked a bit raw and new to the caper, but didn’t mind the way she found the line late to claim third. Think the rise to 1400m on the bigger track is a much better set up and with good upside to come, she shouldn’t be dismissed.

1 Side Show (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a good colt for Ryan/Alexiou and confident he can get a maiden win on the board here. He resumed a few weeks ago over 1300m here where he didn’t quite get the clearest of paths in the straight and didn’t get a chance to build the revs when second to Fortress Australia. Fitter, up to 1400m and with clear air, I think he’ll be too good.

8 Nondisclosure (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a son of Dundeel for Maher/Eustace that is on debut. This guy has had two trials this time in to get ready for start one, the latest trial seeing him win over 1175m at Warwick Farm where he seemed to move quite well and had something in hand. Debuting at 1400m signals some level of intent, so watch the market.

Staying at 1400m I hate for 5 Coto De Caza (Bet Now:  $SP.00) but he looks a nice horse. He debuted at the midweeks at Warwick Farm where the market said he was there for a prep run and while he didn’t win, gee I thought he closed his race off nicely in a very solid debut behind Ceolwulf. If he can settle closer in the run, he’ll be stronger than most at the end.

6 Diabelli (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks the most obvious. James Cummings trained three year old that has the recent track/distance run under the belt, which should hold him in good stead for this. He was a heavily backed odds on favourite but Collett on the eventual winner, Condrieu, rode a 12/10 race, built momentum early and stole a march on Diabelli, who just lacked the change up speed. I think with a positive ride, Diabelli can bounce back.

7 Glad You Think So (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is heading in the right direction for John Sargent. He won his maiden here last start over 1500m. He was there to be beaten but he found plenty under pressure to fend them off and win, and actually clocked fast late splits. Bred to eat up further and with that racing style, he’ll give himself every chance.

4 Skylon (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is sneaky flying for Chris Waller. He caught the eye first up here behind Showsumgrit before going to Wyong where he was building the revs nicely but things didn’t go to plan late and it ended up being an ugly watch. He’ll love getting back to the bigger track and be strong at the end.

11 Inver Park (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness. This gelding, a former UK raider, has been excellent in two runs down under, the latest coming three weeks ago over 1400m at Rosehill where he got a fair way back but he was a real eye catcher late in the piece behind Vreneli. Needs to win this to get into the Epsom and see no reason why he can’t.

10 Vreneli (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has found winning form and he can certainly go on with it. Loved the way he toughed it out to win three weeks ago at Rosehill. He sat on speed and credit to him, he was there to be run down, but he found under pressure to fend them off and get the win. He was only second up so with room for improvement, he rates highly.

6 Democracy Manifest (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can be a big improver here for Chris Waller. He resumed two weeks back in the Tramway where he got back to near last in the run and did make up some level of headway but was never a threat behind Pericles, who led throughout and gave nothing else a look in. He doesn’t have the best of racing patterns but if he can settle closer in the run, he’ll be dangerous.

1 Wollombi (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to be ticking along beautifully for Team Snowden. Negative ride didn’t help her in the Mona Lisa at Wyong and was only getting warm late when third to stablemate Mirra View. Love her on the bigger track, gets towards peak fitness, can settle much closer…very hard to beat.

6 Mirra View (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a stablemate of Wollombi that won the Mona Lisa at Wyong. Chad gave him a peach steer from just behind the speed and was there to win. The mare had to knuckle down to win and credit to her, she did. 1400m at this level is a slight query with her but has a kind map. Leading contender.

10 Diamond Dealer (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is in ripping form for Bjorn Baker and commands respect. Game third two back behind quality mare Olentia before going to Rosehill again a few weeks ago where she was backed with confidence late and under a peach from Schiller, down in the weights, she was too good. Hard to knock the way she’s racing.

I think Annabel Neasham will win this race. Leaning towards 11 Spirit Ridge (Bet Now:  $SP.00). He was game in defeat in the Grafton Cup before having nearly two months off. He came back in the Wyong Cup when attempting to lead throughout and he gave a tremendous sight but couldn’t quite see it through, run down late by Benaud. Fitter, up in trip, firm deck, he only runs well.

2 Cleveland (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the class of the field and that will carry him a long way. He resumed in the Premiers Cup and was pretty good without jumping up and down about the run behind Hosier. He is a proven quality stayer and did run well in The Tancred at this trip in the Autumn, so that form clearly reads well for this.

17 Parry Sound (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a proven stayer and has upside. He didn’t do a bad job fresh in the Rowley Mile at Hawkesbury before going to the Wyong Cup where he was able to settle closer in the run and stuck on well enough in defeat behind Benaud. He should be able to lob into a gun spot from the inside gate and at a big price, include in exotics.

5 Alicia Roma (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the proven track/distance specialist and she is the way I am leaning in The Hurricane. She resumes for Angela Davies, having not raced since March 9 when a strong winner at the track/distance, proving too sharp for a solid horse in Markwell Dreamer. Bomb fresh horse and off the back off a nice trial here last week, I think she’s ready to go.

2 Zoukerino (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the very interesting runner. Formerly with John O’Shea, he now finds himself with Maher/Eustace. Hasn’t raced since the Fireball in the Autumn when producing an end of prep run when down the track behind Dashing Legend. He had two trials soon after without a run and was spelled. He has come back and with two trials under the belt, I think he’s ready to go. But, watch the market.

4 Classy Jaybee (Bet Now:  $SP.00) won this race last year and I think is ticking along nicely towards it again. He is several weeks between runs since racing at the midweeks at Canterbury where he seemingly had every chance but was far from disgraced in defeat behind Whinchat. Fast run 900m, he’ll sit off the hot speed and be one of the strongest at the end.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 5 Alicia Roma

NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 1 Wollombi

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 11 Spirit Ridge

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 2, 6, 10, 11

Leg Two: 1

Leg Three: 2, 5, 10, 11, 17

Leg Four: 5

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