15/2/2025 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Black Caviar Lightning day

Group l racing returns at Flemington this Saturday for Lightning Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Melbourne Cup 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Black Caviar Lightning

6 King’s Valley (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has found winning form again and he can go on with it. That win came three weeks ago at Sandown where he got the beaut run in transit. Just a matter of pushing the button and once that eventuated, away he went and he was dominant. His confidence is up, he takes a power of beating.

2 Le Zebra (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is knocking on the door. Three weeks between runs since racing over 1600m at Sandown where he got off speed and kept finding the line despite seemingly having his chance behind Smokin Princess. The rise to 2000m suits and strikes a winnable race.

10 Fagin (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has found winning form and he can go on with it. The last start win was over 2040m at The Valley when knuckling down strongly late and finished best to win and win well. Not sure he has the quality to win but can run first four at a likely decent price.

7 Sword Of Legacy (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks a filly with an engine under the hood. She ran a fortnight back in the Chairmans when off speed and chased with purpose but found Inkaruna too good on the day. Ran well down the straight on debut and hard fit, she appeals as one of the key chances.

1 Shining Smile (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been kept on ice for Team Hayes, having not raced since winning the Blue Diamond Preview where he looked a good thing on paper and duly saluted, albeit the time was rubbish vs the Fillies. He seems best suited at the short course and is proven down the straight.

2 Tentyris (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Team Freedman trained colt that debuted two weeks back in the Chairmans when nearer the inside of the pack, which I don’t think was the spot to be, so I am forgiving of the effort. He had jumped out super leading in so not dismissing him just yet.

3 Fancify (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a track/distance winner from Cup Day and should be better for the first up run over 1200m Sandown in the Bellmaine when attempting to lead throughout and gave a solid kick but first up, condition just gave way late. Front end control, she’ll take running down.

4 Miraval Rose… (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is she getting near D Day? She was off a break when contesting the Bellmaine two weeks ago at Sandown where she was ridden near the speed but just lacked any real change up speed behind She’s Bulletproof and was a bit on the plain side. I think fitter, up to 1400m, more patient ride, she can run a much improved race.

5 Wrote To Arataki (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a must for exotics. She comes through the Bellmaine when on speed and tried hard but just couldn’t quite see it through and tired late behind She’s Bulletproof. I think with a more conservative steer, she is good enough to win.

5 Umgawa (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is knocking on the door for Corstens/Larkin and I think he gets his chance here after racing two weeks ago at Sandown where I think you can make a case to say he wins, but just got badly held up before eventually getting clear and savaged the line late in the piece. Room to move this time, home track, rates highly.

8 Ziryab (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is progressive for Ciaron Maher and confident he can measure up here after going 2/2 this time in, the latest coming at Mornington when heavily backed and although he wasn’t 100% happy on the tight track but quality got him home. Hard to beat despite the class/depth rise.

2 Smokin Princess (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Patrick Payne trained mare that is in ripping form at present and is hard to beat after winning at Sandown, knuckling down with purpose from off the speed to win and win well. 1600m seems her sweet spot and she strikes another winnable race.

8 Wiggum (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is bursting to win. His recent runs have come down the straight at Flemington where each time he was off speed but chased with purpose, each time just missing out on the win. Racing very well at the moment, deserving of a win and gets a great chance here.

6 Shesallshenanigans (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is in a purple patch for Simon Zahra and commands respect. Strong winner two back at this track/distance before going to Sandown when attempting to lead throughout and gave a solid kick from the front but just couldn’t quite get there when a narrow second to in form mare New York Lustre. Hard fit, good racing style, takes beating.

4 Veloce Carro (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an improver for Ciaron Maher. He resumed down the straight a few weeks back at Flemington where he paraded like he would improve with the run and that’s how it panned out but he was far from disgraced behind Major Share. Better for the run, he can be an improver and threaten.

6 Rise At Dawn (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a beauty for Team Hayes that resumes. This guy is first up, having not raced since Aug 31 when a strong winner of the Heatherlie at Cranbourne when really finding late under pressure to fend them off and win. Dare say he has eyes on races like the All Star Mile, potentially the Doncaster, and his jumpout work has been strong.

5 Aztec Ruler (Bet Now:  $SP.00) comes through the John Dillon from three weeks back. He was kept quite safe in betting and seemingly had every chance in behind but just couldn’t quite finish the job behind Coastwatch. He has good talent and I think with a patient steer, he can threaten.

8 Communist (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Team Freedman trained Group l winner that resumes. He hasn’t raced since Oct 26 at Randwick when down the track over the mile behind Sounds Of Heaven. Now with the Freedman camp, his trial behind Place Du Carrousel was good and his best is good enough to run really well fresh.

10 Henlein (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a quality animal for Team Freedman that resumes. He is first up, having not raced since the Spring Champion where he ran out of his skin but bumped into a very much hard fit and in form El Castello, with a gap to third. I hope he is being trained as a miler this prep and his jumpout work indicates he’s had a good grounding to run a beauty fresh with eyes towards the Guineas.

1 Goldrush Guru (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to be given another look. He resumed against the older horses in the Durbridge when wide no cover throughout and hard hard run just told on him late in the piece. The rise to 1400m suits, back to his own age and gets J Kah back aboard. He can bounce back.

9 Wonder Boy (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is three weeks between runs since contesting the Manfred at Sandown where he got back in the field and while he was never a winning threat, he did find the line well enough in defeat. Hard fit now and up to 1400m, this is D Day for me to see if he’s a contender or pretender.

10 Growing Empire (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a star colt and I think he’ll make a statement as the best 3YO sprinter in Australia with a win here. He did an outstanding job in the Spring, but what I will say is that he was ridden warm for the most part, where you compare to first, where he was ridden with a sit, he looked like Black Caviar. Both trials this time in, they have deliberately rode him cold to find the line and chase. I think if that is the way they ride him here, I think good luck beating him.

11 Switzerland (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the best 3YO sprinter in Australia as it stands right now given what he did to them in the Coolmore where he gave them a start and a beating to bolt up and smash the clock. I will say though, his trial work has been nothing to jump up and down about, but Waller horses can do that in trials. He has to be respected. Do I want to back him as favourite? No, I’d want $6+.

1 Mazu (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one I can entertain for exotics. He reusmes for Joe Pride, having not raced since the Russell Balding on Golden Eagle Day when back and worked to the line well enough in defeat behind Bella Nipotina. Trialled well to my eye, drawn the right part of the track…he can run top four.

4 Sneaky Sunrise (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a fascinating runner. Team Hayes trains this filly, who looked very promising as a 2YO but didn’t run in the Spring, being kept on ice for the Autumn. Her jumpout work has been solid and she doesn’t really need to improve much from her 2YO season to measure up to this and better races. Definite market watch.

1 Another Prophet (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is three weeks between runs since resuming over 1200m at Sandown in the Manfred where she just found them a bit sharp but kept finding the line and was pretty good in defeat I thought behind Royal Insigna. Fitter and up in trip, back to against the Fillies, she commands respect.

3 Too Darn Discreet (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a good filly for Dan O’Sullivan that resumes. Her last run came in the Oaks where she found the 2500m a bridge too far but was far from disgraced in defeat behind Treasurethe Moment. Liked the way she trialled at Geelong behind Here To Shock and should be strong late.

I have to give 1 It’s Business Time (Bet Now:  $SP.00) another chance. I thought she jumped out like an absolute rocket prior to resuming at Sandown where the market said she wasn’t there to play, she was fizzy behind the gates and ran her race before the gates opened. Off that jumpout work…I think she has to be worth another look.

3 Is It Me (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a key threat for Dan Bowman off the back of a strong win at this track/distance where he got the right run in transit and finished best to score. Saves his best for this track/distance, he rates highly as one of the leading chances.

2 Le Ferrari (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is several weeks between runs since racing over 1400m at Flemington. He landed on speed from the tricky gate and did try hard but just felt the pinch late behind Is It Me. Hard fit, good racing style, he commands respect as a key threat.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 10 Growing Empire

NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 8 Wiggum

LONG SHOT: Race Ten Number 1 It’s Business Time

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 1, 9, 10, 14

Leg Two: 10

Leg Three: 1, 3, 4, 10

Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 9, 10

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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