14/10/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, Max Simmonds Stakes day

The Ascot racing season gets underway this Saturday for Max Simmonds Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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10 This’ll Show Ya (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks a nice filly for Mitch Pateman and she is on top in an even 2YO contest. She has had a couple of trials to get ready for start one, the latest trial coming over 950m where she was pushed out by Watson but responded quite well to run a narrow second. Even race, no standouts to my eye, so I think she is a decent way to lean.

6 Live Lucky (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Written By filly on debut for Dion Luciani. This girl has been well educated for start one with three trials under the belt. They have all come over 400m, but with three of them to get ready, the grounding is there to have her to go and despite a tricky gate, she rates highly.

2 Cannykev (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Team Casey trained colt on debut. He has had two trials under the belt to get ready for start one, the latest seeing him place over 950m at Lark Hill last week where he ran third and seemingly moved well enough. Can he win? I am saying no, but can fill a first four spot.

1 Capricorn Man (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the way I am leaning. Talented animal for Team Casey that resumes, having not raced since November 5 when close up over 1200m here behind My Bella Mae, who is a Stakes class animal and would be $1.50 against these. Two 1000m trials this time in to get ready for the return, he’ll land near the speed and the depth, as a whole, isn’t overly deep.

2 On The Full (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will jump on the bunny and give them something to chase. He was near the front at Belmont a fortnight back and tried hard but just didn’t have the finale to put the race to bed when third to Ruler Rocket. Not the best of records at Ascot but you’d like to think with his racing pattern, he’ll give himself every chance.

4 Seduce Me (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness. Simon Miller trained mare that ran at the midweeks at Belmont last time where she got off the speed and seemed to have her chance, just whacking to the line late in the piece behind Rockin’ Rupert. Not sure she is good enough to win but can certainly pinch a first four spot.

10 Toni’s Spirit (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a lightly raced mare for Jordan Rolfe that is clearly heading in the right direction and I think she can take this out. Her first look at this trip came last start at Belmont at the midweeks when well specked at odds and those who took the price got it bang on as she made a mess of them from off the speed and was impressive. Better for the run under the belt, she’s the one for me.

6 Bandalera Miss (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is getting on in years but strikes a winnable race and she finds Pike again. Ran over 2000m at Belmont a fortnight back where she got a fair way out of her ground but made up solid headway late in the piece when third to Bad Wolf. Pike on, she likes racing at Ascot and is a proven stayer. One of the main contenders.

5 Magic Whistle (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can be an improver at odds. He comes through the Bad Wolf race from two weeks back where he got back and tried to make a sustained run from the back, but he couldn’t quite do it and just whacked to the line to be beaten just over three lengths. Think with a more economical run in transit, he’s dangerous at odds.

Not sure there is much upside this prep for 12 Pleasure Cruise (Bet Now:  $SP.00) but he does look a nice horse heading places. 2/2 to start his career, both coming at Belmont. Debuted with an impressive display over 1200m before stepping up to 1400m when just getting the win, with Pike lifting him over the line. Tricky gate to overcome but beware the unbeaten horse.

7 Noteworthy (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a daughter of Charm Spirit for Michael Grantham that resumes. This mare put together some nice efforts when last in work, ending the prep with a midfield effort in the Belmont Oaks. 1400m fresh signals some level of intent to my eye…Pike chooses Pleasure Cruise but that’s not to say this mare can’t run a positive race.

9 Split Jete (Bet Now:  $SP.00) lacks the quality of some of these but does have hard race fitness under the belt and a good racing style. Attempted to lead throughout at Belmont three weeks back and gave a bold sight from the front but couldn’t quite finish it it off when a narrow second to Amber Glide. Last bit of 1400m will test but he’ll give himself every chance with the racing pattern.

If he keeps winning, 12 Sentimental Hero (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a horse who can put his hand up for the Railway. Market wanted him at odds when resuming over 1200m at Belmont three weeks ago, giving them a start and a beating when letting down hard late for a big win. He’s got a great second up record and up to 1400m, improvement to come, he clearly rates highly.

8 Pompey (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been up a little while but is holding his form superbly for Team Williams and rates highly. Ran a fortnight back at this track/distance where he landed on speed quite comfortably and tried his guts out but couldn’t quite get the win, nabbed late by a really good horse, Aztec Ruler. Not sure what upside he has got but only has to hold his form to be around the mark.

11 Feels Playful (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Mitch Pateman trained mare that resumes. This girl is first up, having not raced since July 29 at Belmont when struggling on a bottomless deck, finishing down the track behind Mood Swings. Not a noted fresh horse but didn’t mind the way she trialled and like that she resumes at 1400m, signalling some level of intent. Market watch for sure.

13 Cosmic Crusader (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should love the rise to the mile for Donna Riordan. Son of Maurice that resumed over 1200m at Belmont two weeks ago and he was one of the real eye catchers of the meeting, closing off with real purpose late in the piece behind Playhouse Patron in a strong return. He’ll love the rise in trip, he’s got good upside to come and with the engine under the hood, he appeals.

15 Decoration (Bet Now:  $SP.00) comes straight out of maiden grade but he looks to have above average ability. Both career runs have come at Northam, catching the eye on debut over 1000m before going to 1300m where he gave them a start and a beating in such an impressive win. He’ll have no issue with 1600m and with good upside/progression, he’s one of the leading contenders.

5 Duchess Demerit (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Paul Roberts trained gelding that resumes. This guy is first up, having not raced since May 6 at Ascot over 2200m when back in a sit/sprint and just couldn’t pick up late in the piece behind Fear The Wind. He is a horse who can sprint well fresh, two trials under the belt and first up at the mile signals he’s forward enough.

5 Alotofbanter (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks like he will resume a winner. Nice three year old for Simon Miller that resumes, having not raced since the Karrakatta Plate when far from disgraced in defeat behind a potential star, Super Smink. Two 950m trials under the belt, so the grounding is there, he maps well, he has a touch of class/quality…looks quite clearly the one to beat.

7 Little Strawberry (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a talented mare for Mitch Pateman that comes here with fresh legs, having not raced since August 26 at Belmont when getting the 1/1 sit before angling clear late and in a driving finish, she was too good. Gate is a touch tricky, but she has residual fitness and is a very genuine mare. Leading contender.

11 Nobellity (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Mike Santich trained mare that resumes. This girl is first up, having not raced since March 11 when forced to do work on speed and that early burn just told late in the piece when down the track behind Miss Field. Not a noted fresh horse but didn’t mind the way she trialled and maps to get a decent run in transit.

11 Petula (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has the potential to be one of the better fillies for Simon Miller this Carnival. She resumes after a two run Autumn prep where she won both races and each time she was impressive, especially the debut win here, where she seemed much more dynamic on the tight track. Two trials to get ready and with her racing pattern, she’ll take beating.

1 Ripcord (Bet Now:  $SP.00) commands respect. Luke Fernie trained three year old that resumed at Belmont two weeks ago where he was outside the speed and seemingly moving with purpose. But, he had to lump the big weight and beat him in the end when a narrow second to Generosity. Good room for improvement, good racing style, he appeals for sure.

4 Eliteone (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Simon Miller trained son of Ducimus that resumes. This guy hasn’t raced since the debut back in May when giving them a start and a beating to win well here. Been given a good break with the Carnival in mind and his trial work has been more than encouraging. Knockout chance for sure.

2 Top Of The Pops (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is worth a throw at the stumps in the get out. Dan Morton had Saloon Bar but goes with this guy, which I find interesting given he is better suited over a bit further but has an inside gate to settle closer in the run than normal and gets in quite well after the claim for Campbell. Dangerous for sure and worth a speck.

16 Paris Calling (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a talented filly for Trevor Andrews that resumes. This girl is first up, having not raced since July 1 at Belmont when placing over 1400m when off the speed and closing nicely, just missing out on the win. Just one 1000m trial under the belt to get ready and is drawn tricky, but she has a touch of quality about her.

4 Mojo Rhythm (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Mitch Pateman trained gelding that resumes. This guy was last seen in the WA Day Cup over the mile at Northam when producing a brilliant finale from near last to round them up and win so impressively. 1200m is on the short side but he likes Ascot and is a bomb fresh horse so watch the market.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 11 Petula

NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 12 Sentimental Hero

LONG SHOT: Race Three Number 10 Toni’s Spirt

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 13, 15

Leg Two: 1, 5, 7, 11

Leg Three: 11

Leg Four: 2, 4, 6, 12, 16

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