One of the bumper days on the South Australian racing calendar is Adelaide Cup Day and it rolls around this Monday with a cracking nine race program. The weather is overcast, the track is good (4) and the rail is out four metres from the 1800m-1200m; Out two metres for the remainder.
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Race One (13:12) : 7News Handicap (82) 1050m:
Back Me: 9 Call Me Curtis (Best Odds: $7.50) is a very hard horse to follow but gee I think he finds a winnable race here. Hasn’t for 58 days since finishing a narrow second to Murti in that infamous race involving Josh Cartwright. Got back and was held up a touch but worked home strongly. Break between runs, down in the weights, maps well…gets his chance.
Big Danger: 4 Star Stealer (Best Odds: $2.70) is a talented galloper for Darren Weir who looks to have his races spaced and comes here in ripping form for the stable after kicking off his prep with two runs at the Valley. Draws a lovely gate here, Ben Allen steers and should get every chance. Hard to beat.
Long Shot: 2 I Am Gypsy (Best Odds: $8.50) is a nippy customer who resumes for the in form Gordon Richards yard. Ran some really solid races in the Winter/Spring, but raced like a tired horse towards the end. Looked sharp in a recent trial, and he can sprint well fresh. Gate is the negative.
Race Two (13:47) : Schweppes Oaks Day 6th May 2017 Handicap (80) 1200m:
Back Me: 8 Model Dragon (Best Odds: $4.20) is a very talented mare that resumes for the Stokes yard after just two runs in the Spring, where she bolted up fresh at Cranbourne before racing at Flemington during cup week where he failed after sitting wide no cover. Trial win was very good and looks the one to beat.
Big Danger: 1 Beautiful Flyer (Best Odds: $4.40) looks the key and perhaps only threat to Model Dragon. Really talented type that is back in work after a little freshen up. Raced well in Stakes grade before stringing together a couple of wins at benchmark level. Loved her trial win. Looks ready to run a ripping race fresh.
Long Shot: 6 Miss Adele (Best Odds: $19.00) is a very interesting runner here. Resumes for the Hyam camp after a mixed Spring prep, but she did run a couple of very good races early on in the prep last time in. No trials leading in, but she does have a tidy record when produced first up. Market watch.
Race Three (14:22) : Magic Millions Adelaide 2YO Classic 1200m:
Back Me: 9 Undoubtable Miss (Best Odds: $4.20) was a real eye catcher on debut behind Ducimus, who franked the form by winning the Talindert. She then went to Sandown where she got back in a slowly run yet really finished off with purpose when a close up second to Justice Glory. Had this race been 1400m, I’d declare her, but despite that, I think a strong 1200m will be ideal. Keen.
Big Danger: 1 Danger Deal (Best Odds: $8.50) ran over 1200m on the Parks track a tick over two weeks back where he sat off the tempo and tried hard but was no match late for Tabbing, settling for second. Looks much better suited on the course proper I think and will go close for sure with upside left.
Long Shot: 4 Paseeto (Best Odds: $13.00) resumed in the Tabbing race at the Parks track a fortnight ago and she just looked to race a touch flat to my eye despite being a well backed favourite. Had to settle for third. Showed good promise in the first prep and trials, so I’m giving her big respect here.
Race Four (14:57) : UBET SA Derby Day 13th May 2017 Handicap 1200m:
Back Me: 2 Revolving Door (Best Odds: $4.60) looks one of the better bets on the program here. Classy three year old for the McDonald camp that competed in the big three year old races in the Spring, including the Caulfield Guineas. Sprinting looks his go, and his latest jump out was very good. Keen on him.
Big Danger: 3 Artie Dee Two (Best Odds: $5.50) had to cover a lot of ground when making his run last time out over 1000m at the Valley yet closed off well late in the piece behind the potential star that is Matty. Bumps into another good one here, but does have fitness on his side. Definite winning chance on his best form.
Long Shot: 10 Fully Stoked (Best Odds: $19.00) is a quality gelding that resumes for the Stokes yard. He raced three times during the Spring, starting off with a debut win on the Parks track before eventually running fourth in the Hill Smith behind Pretty Punk, with that form holding up okay during the Melbourne Spring. Didn’t trial that great at Strathalbyn, but has class/quality. Market watch for sure.
Race Five (15:35) : Darley Goodwood 20th May 2017 Handicap (75) 1200m:
Back Me: 9 Cocoa Doll (Best Odds: $3.40) is a talented mare who has had her issues but when she is right, she is very good. Resumed over the short course on the Parks track at the midweeks where she was just simply too good for them. More depth here, but I’m confident she can measure up. One of the hardest to beat.
Big Danger: 3 Counter Pulse (Best Odds: $4.60) ran over this track/distance last Saturday where he had a great time of it in front and when London asked for the supreme effort, away he went and he just absolutely spanked them. Should cop more pressure here on speed but has returned so well that he can’t be ignored.
Long Shot: 11 Kesan (Best Odds: $26.00) doesn’t have the greatest of winning records, but he is a smart conveyance when he is right and in the right frame of mind. Resumes short of his ideal trip, but looked alright in a recent trial and gets the services of the Poon Train in one of his final rides before jetting off to Hong Kong.
Race Six (16:12) : My Kitchen Rules Matrice Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: 8 Lyuba (Best Odds: $2.70) is a gun mare for Darren Weir that is racing so well but she just can’t quite crack it for blacktype success. Tried that in Tassie and got close but just lacked the polish. Back on the mainland, little freshen up, and Ben Allen back aboard should see her go close. Key threat.
Big Danger: 1 Casino Wizard (Best Odds: $4.80) is one of the better sprinters SA has to offer and is on trial for a crack at the Goodwood so what he does here will be a good guide. Hasn’t raced since producing a lovely turn of foot to win the Christmas Handicap at this track/distance. Look for him to ambush late.
Long Shot: 2 Riziz (Best Odds: $10.00) hasn’t won for a while but gee he finds a very winnable race here. He ran over this track/distance three weeks back where he sat near the speed and fought on well but just felt the pinch late when third to Heart Of A Lion. Definite threat here now he has the fitness in the system.
Race Seven (16:47) : UBET Adelaide Cup 3200m:
Back Me: 10 Like A Carousel (Best Odds: $26.00) looks great value to my eye. He had produced some really good efforts this time in prior to running in the Roy Higgins where he was ridden upside down by Froggy. He has some really good 3200m stats next to his name, and for mine, he just represents great value.
Big Danger: 12 Annus Mirabilis (Best Odds: $5.50) is another that comes through the Roy Higgins and he just raced a touch flat to my eye given he was second up off a break. The effort was sound, but not quite what he expected. The key is the rise in trip, and that is what he gets here. He should take some beating.
Long Shot: 6 De Little Engine (Best Odds: $11.00) also comes through the Roy Higgins at Flemington last Saturday where he got a long way back in the run and closed off his race with real purpose to run fourth to Big Memory. He has some okay form at two miles. Not as strong as Like A Carousel, but still a live threat.
Race Eight (17:25) : Schweppes CS Hayes Memorial Cup 1600m:
Back Me: 2 Burning Front (Best Odds: $1.55) is an absolute beauty for Darren Weir who doesn’t know how to run a bad race. He has swept through the VOBIS races in recent times, with a Carlyon Cup win in the middle. He will do his thing of sitting on speed and fighting like a tiger. An obvious threat.
Big Danger: 3 Great Esteem (Best Odds: $4.00) will make him work for it no doubt. He did plenty of work in the Cranbourne Cup last time out yet fought on so well when a close up third to Master Reset. He has some really good stats at the mile, including a second in the Toorak. He probably leads and he is no easy beat when in the mood.
Long Shot: Not going to drop off 7 Dances On Stars (Best Odds: $15.00), a former Gerald Ryan galloper that has had a couple of runs for Grant Young. The latest came over this track/distance where he didn’t get much room in the straight and had the big weight. Tumbles down in the weights now, fitter and is a place chance.
Race Nine (18:00) : MAC DRINK DRIVING? GROW UP Handicap (75) 1600m:
Back Me: 13 Letsava Win (Best Odds: $7.50) looked a good thing when racing on Port Lincoln Cup Day last Friday and despite clearly not handling the track, he was just far too good for them. As I keep saying, Will Clarken is one of the best in Australia in getting a tried horse and improving them. Letsava Win is no exception, and has upside.
Big Danger: 4 Miss Sydney (Best Odds: $3.20) was a drifter in the market when racing over 1500m at the Valley last time out where she was given a perfect steer just off the speed and pounced at the right time for a decisive win. More depth here, but I’m confident she can measure up here. Leading contender.
Long Shot: 5 Optimize (Best Odds: $7.50) hasn’t raced for 23 days since racing over 2000m here where she attempted to lead all the way as a short priced elect but she was the first horse beat and really struggled. That trip is not her go. Back to the mile really suits and she is capable of a sharp bounce back here.
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 2 Burning Front
NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 2 Revolving Door
VALUE: Race Seven Number 10 Like A Carousel
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 2, 5, 8
Leg Two: 1, 2, 5, 6, 10, 12
Leg Three: 2, 3
Leg Four: 4, 5, 6, 10, 12, 13
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