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Nine races will be run and won at Rosehill this Saturday for Winter Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is heavy (8) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

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Race 1. (11:30) Everest Carnival Handicap 1100m

Back Me

Like the look of 3 True Detective (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) for Chris Waller. This colt debuted at the midweeks at Rosehill over 1100m during the Autumn and was most impressive in getting the job done in a race which generally is a good form reference over time. Yet to be ticked off, but he looks above average and his recent trial at Randwick looked very good to the eye. Keen to see how he goes.

Danger

2 Not Feint Hearted (Bet Now: $14.00 TOP ODDS) is a son of Not A Single Doubt resuming for Gary Portelli. He had two runs in the Autumn to start his career, debuting with a win at Warwick Farm before contesting the Kindergarten where he was outclassed but far from disgraced behind Bivouac. Liked the way he went in a recent Warwick Farm barrier trial. He’ll get back and be strong at the end.

Long Shot

10 Intrepidacious (Bet Now: $16.00 TOP ODDS) is a John O’Shea trained filly who had been trialling very nicely prior to resuming at Rosehill a few weeks ago where she was off a very moderate speed and she was there to win 250m out but condition and the slow tempo just sealed her fate but she was good in defeat all the same. Tick over trial at Randwick was very good and now with the run under the belt, she appeals big time.

Race 2. (12:05) Book Spring Hospitality Handicap (74) 1500m

Back Me

Really keen to see how 3 Cinqueda (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) goes for the Freedman stable. He gave them an absolute spanking two back at Goulburn before going to Newcastle where it looked a bit hairy for a few moments but Latham got clear and he went through his gears like a nice horse in spanking them again. Harder here, but the way he’s going, he can measure up and 1500m is no issue.

Danger

The step up to 1500m should suit the James Cummings trained 2 Phaistos (Bet Now: $2.70 TOP ODDS), who ran over the 1400m here two weeks ago and it was the tempo that beat him, with the winner Call Me Royal getting an absolute picnic in front and stole the race. The concern for this guy is that Call Me Royal looks to get a soft lead again, but Bowman on and I think at the end of 1500m, he’ll be stronger.

Long Shot

11 Monegal (Bet Now: $26.00 TOP ODDS) is a Theresa Bateup trained filly who has been good in two runs back from a spell. Loved the way she knuckled down to win first up at the Sapphire Coast before racing here two weeks ago when having to make her run nearer the inside, which was quicksand, and she was very brave in defeat behind Call Me Royal. Up to 1500m I like, and she should be ready third up.

Race 3. (12:40) TAB Highway Handicap (Class 3) 1400m

Back Me

She’s nearly bet of the day is 12 Nashian (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS). Marc Quinn trains this filly, who trialled up very well prior to resuming in a Highway at Randwick over 1200m where she got a mile back in the run and was never a winning factor, but she attacked the line with real purpose late to run a close up fifth to stablemate Gumshoe. She’ll eat up 1400m, remains down in the weights, upside…keen.

Danger

4 Galapagos (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS) is a Cody Morgan trained gelding who was considered a good thing by most when he raced in a 1500m Highway here last time out but he was a significant drifter in betting late and the market got it spot on as he raced really flat behind Upper House. Been freshened up and won a trial at Tamworth to keep ticking over. His effort behind Kolding the start prior was a ripper, so have to give him another chance.

Long Shot

15 Refire (Bet Now: $34.00 TOP ODDS) could be an improver at odds. He comes through the Dulette Highway from two weeks ago here where he just got too far back in the run and was never really a winning factor but made ground late behind the Taree galloper. Can sit much closer in the run from the good draw and with only 53kg on his back, I think he’s a definite winning chance.

Race 4. (13:15) ATC Member Tours Handicap (78) 2000m

Back Me

10 Waking Moment (Bet Now: $4.00 TOP ODDS) for me. Her overall record isn’t great but I reckon Chris Waller has her flying. Loved the way she found the line first up behind Nicci’s Gold before stepping up to 1800m when chasing hard but finding stablemate Toryjoy a touch too good on the day. Third up at 2000m looks ideal for this mare and she’s got a fair amount of upside left.

Danger

3 High Power (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS) looks ready to win. Kris Lees trains this gelding, who ran over 2000m at Rosehill three weeks ago where he just lacked the turn of foot to go with them late but stayed on and was good in defeat behind Primitivo. 2000m does look his trip and I want to give him another chance, even though he’s starting to build up a run of outs. One more chance.

Long Shot

Up to 2000m will suit the Mitch Freedman trained 8 Amerock (Bet Now: $20.00 TOP ODDS), who was doing some good things at the 2000m distance range before being given a let up and racing over the mile at Flemington in an on pace dominated affair and liked the way he found the line from the back. Big tick he goes up to 2000m and stable finds Bossy to steer. Knockout chance.

Race 5. (13:50) ATC Foundation Handicap (78) 1100m

Back Me

12 Moccasin Miss (Bet Now: $23.00) looks to be going really well for Gary Portelli but she can’t quite crack it for a win. Bias/tempo was against her last Wednesday at Canterbury but she found the line strongly from the back, just missing out on picking up Worldly Pleasure. Hopefully can sit closer in the run from the inside gate and does get right down in the weights this time around. 1×3 play would be the suggestion.

Danger

3 Spiritual Pursuit (Bet Now: $1.80) is a talented filly for Jason Coyle who did too much work first up here when pipped late by Wagner before going to Randwick where she looked a good thing on paper and under Kathy she was much too good for her rivals. Takes on the older mares and creeping up in the weights, but third up, she should just about be at peak fitness.

Long Shot

5 Agent Pippa (Bet Now: $10.00) is one of the bigger queries on the program. Former WA filly having her first run for Kris Lees. She showed superb early speed in her races when trained by the Pearce team in Perth but was usually weak at the end of her races. Now with Lees, has had three trials in readiness for her resumption and stable finds Bowman to steer. Market watch for sure.

Race 6. (14:30) TAB Handicap (78) 1500m

Back Me

3 Nahuel (Bet Now: $4.00) is a Team Freedman trained gelding that had trialled up well enough prior to resuming over 1400m at Rosehill three weeks ago where he was back in the run and despite never really being likely, he did make ground late in an encouraging return to the track. Like him up to 1500m, has upside and he has a really good second up record, winning two and placing in another from three runs.

Danger

9 Cyber Intervention (Bet Now: $4.00) looks a great chance here IMO. Joe Pride trains this bloke and he was confident the horse would run well first up on the Kenso track and he was right as the gelding got back and found the line strongly to run second to Stella Sea Sun, admittedly the race was run to suit, but for a horse wanting further, it was still a very good run. Second up stats are misleading. First second up run was a hot 3YO 70 at Warwick Farm where he pulled his head off and second up last prep at Gosford, he should have won but had no luck. Keen on him running well.

Long Shot

12 Nicochet (Bet Now: $6.00) gets another chance. I was keen on him running well here two weeks ago but I thought he was a bit disappointing behind No Escape, but perhaps the seriously wet track was against him and he struggled. Runs prior were very good and down in the weights this time around on firmer footing, I think he can bounce back and run well.

Race 7. (15:10) Winter Stakes 1400m

Back Me

Complete lottery this race so I’m going extremely wide and having a nibble each way on 12 Sir Bacchus (Bet Now: $34.00). This grey was good first up off a moderate speed behind Passage Of Time before contesting the Civic where he was forced to make his run nearer the inside, which was quicksand, so pen that run. Last prep he was excellent first up, flat second up, then came out and won third up, beating a good horse in Spectroscope. Soft gate, on the minimum, and with that good third up record, he’s worth an each way ticket.

Danger

14 Nicci’s Gold (Bet Now: $6.00) is flying for Gary Portelli. Lovely win here two back under a 12/10 steer from Sam Clenton before going to the Civic Stakes when warming to the task late to run a close up fourth to Gaulois. Like her up to 1400m and though traditionally her form can taper away, she seems to be holding it together quite well at the moment and is a definite chance.

Long Shot

8 Testashadow (Bet Now: $23.00) wasn’t too bad in the Civic behind Gaulois. He had a nice run near the speed and tried hard despite never really being a winning threat. What I will say is that he was in restricted room for the entire straight and he does seem a horse better suited when he gets proper clear air around him. Think he’ll take good improvement from that and is a knockout chance at odds.

Race 8. (15:50) ATC Handicap (88) 1200m

Back Me

Fresh and cover is the two big ticks for 1 Mahalangur (Bet Now: $10.00) so I’ll go his way. Hasn’t raced since May 25 at Randwick when on face value putting in a shocker behind stablemate Renewal, but was found to be 2/5 lame post race so clear excuses. Gets the 3kg claim for Brock Ryan, he draws to get the suck run with cover, handles a wet track…plenty to like.

Danger

14 River Bird (Bet Now: $4.40) is in a real purple patch at the moment for Jason Coyle. Loved the way she toughed it out to win here two weeks ago in an easier and though having the weight pull, she had to dig in when challenged and certainly did that, edging clear late. Hardest test to date, but remains right down in the weights and a hard 1200m should be fine for her.

Long Shot

5 Star Reflection (Bet Now: $13.00) comes through the Civic Stakes from two weeks ago where she had to get dragged back from the wide gate and that sealed her fate, but she was okay in defeat. Drops a fair bit in depth for this, like her back to 1200m and from the good draw, she can sit much closer in the run and she’s a mare who thrives on a track with give in it.

Race 9. (16:30) Rosehill Bowling Club Handicap (78) 1200m

Back Me

I know you need fat pockets to butter up on 1 Drachenfels (Bet Now: $5.00), but Bjorn Baker has him absolutely flying at the moment. Ran over this track/distance two weeks back and while he ran third to River Bird, beaten 1.5L, I’m convinced he should have gone close to winning. His mid race splits leading up to the 400m, he was going quicker than River Bird and seemingly going better, but Collett had to duck back to the inside, which was quicksand, and with the 7.5kg weight swing as well, that told late. He’s flying and happy to be in his corner.

Danger

7 Handle The Truth (Bet Now: $3.60) comes through the River Bird race from a few weeks ago where he got the 1/1 sit under McDougall and looked to travel well in the run and into the straight, but first up against race fit gallopers, he was just found out late but stuck to the task pretty well in defeat. Been a late scratching and has trialled since, and looked good there. Hard to beat with his best manners.

Long Shot

8 Jack’s Bar (Bet Now: $7.00) is three weeks between runs for Kris Lees since racing over 1200m at Randwick where he really struggled on the bog track when midfield behind Southern Lad. Back on firmer footing with the little break between runs, finds a winnable race here and his win prior at Warwick Farm when well supported was quite impressive. Giving him another chance.

Best Bets & Quaddie Tips

BEST BET: Race Three Number 12 Nashian

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 1 Mahalangur

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 12 Sir Bacchus

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 3, 6, 9, 12

Leg Two: 3, 5, 8, 12, 14

Leg Three: 1, 5, 12, 14

Leg Four: 1, 7, 8

$50 Investment = 20.83% of the dividend if successful

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