13/1/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Cranbourne

Eight races will be run and won under the lights at Cranbourne this Friday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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2 Choquant (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has had a couple of chances to break the maiden tag but gee this looks a race seriously lacking depth. Should have finished much closer at Geelong fresh when having no luck. He then went to 1500m at Sandown where he got dragged out wide from a wayward rival but even allowing for that, he wasn’t getting past Fretta, who looks very promising. Hard fit now and getting to the mile, home deck, this is D-Day. He has to be winning.

9 Naval Destroyer (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the only threat I can find. Peter Moody trained gelding that was good late over 1400m two back behind Rheinberg before going to this track/distance where he was on speed and fought on strongly, but couldn’t quite finish it off when second to Concentric. I think his best chance of winning is getting on speed, hopefully leading, and rolling, making sure Choquant is chasing from a fair way out.

1 Brungle Creek (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the map horse with a good racing style to give himself every chance. He has had two runs back from a spell, both coming over 1500m. Latest run came at Mornington where he attempted to lead throughout and was there all the way, only getting run down late by First Commandment. Should get run of the race from the gate and is a must for multiples.

I think you have to give 5 Extravagant Choice (Bet Now:  $SP.00) another look. Most were keen on his prospects when debuting at Stony Creek but he was tardy from the gates and I just don’t think he handled the tight track behind The Brill Building, but did clock good late splits. Bigger track looks ideal, the depth is on the thin side and off his jumpout work, he has an engine under the hood.

1 Alluring Rebel (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has talent and commands respect. He was kept relatively safe in betting when debuting over 1200m at Mornington but unfortunately for his fans, he was caught wide no cover on speed. That said, he stuck on very well when second to Arctic Eagle. Tricky gate to overcome but should slide forward, trained on the track and outside the favourite, this race is a tad thin.

4 Daicos (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can run a much improved race. Peter Moody trained colt that resumed over 1200m at Mornington where he was wide no cover for the trip but even allowing for that, he was weak late and a tad on the plain side behind Proprietary. Draws to get a more economical run in transit this time around, likely leads and will take catching if the track is playing up/in.

1400m is on the short side for 4 Lavish Thinker (Bet Now:  $SP.00) but he does look a nice horse in the making. He had a two run Winter prep where he was looking a Derby prospect but after two runs, where he was good each time, he was spelled. Has come back and I thought his recent effort in a Pakenham jumpout was a good piece of work. He’ll likely drift back but be strong at the end and has a touch of class.

8 Innerbloom (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Team Browne trained filly that resumes. She had three runs in her first prep during the Winter/Spring where each time she caught the eye and looking like a filly with good ability. Jumped out last week here and seemingly moved quite well over 1000m. Gets in well after the claim for the very promising Tom Prebble and 1400m fresh tells me she is ready to go.

6 Mister Fairbanks (Bet Now:  $SP.00) might want one more and a further rise in distance, but is trained on the track and stable is going well. Debuted over 1300m at Wangaratta where he was very one paced when asked for the effort and albeit beaten a fair way, the run was okay-ish, beaten just under five lengths. I don’t think he can win, but could well pinch a first four spot at a price.

7 Dancinginthedark (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks quite clearly the one to beat. This mare debuted over 1500m here just over two weeks ago where she got off the speed and came with a well timed run under Stackhouse, just running out of puff late when second to dominant winner Field The Moment. The splits suggested she was working into the race nicely but the last 200m, she knocked up, so 1400m is ideal and is hard to beat.

3 Isdell (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a slight query at 1400m but if he finds the front and gets control. he’ll take beating. He attempted to lead throughout over 1300m at Wangaratta last time and gave a strong kick but was nabbed right on the peg by Sugar Pop. If this track is playing towards those on speed, then he comes right into play and that should offset the 1400m query.

9 Jamesarelli (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a sneaky first four prospect at a price. She is around a month between runs since racing over 1500m at Mornington where she didn’t quite get the rub of the green at a vital stage, losing momentum and that was race over for her. Close up third at this track/distance the start prior so while I couldn’t back her to win, she is a must for multiples from the soft gate.

1 Lady Adelaide (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to have a class edge and I’ll bank on that getting her home. Patrick Payne trained mare that resumed at the midweeks at Sandown where she was near the speed throughout and just lacked the change up speed when Williams asked but was good late behind Boss Queen, finishing third. Like her up to 1400m and the depth here is nowhere near as strong.

5 Aeecee Supreme (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third up from a break and should just about be at peak fitness. Just looked in need of the run fresh at Sandown behind Riverplate before racing here where she was smashed in betting but got way too keen behind the moderate speed and couldn’t finish it off at all behind Hugenot. If the tempo is more genuine this time around, she can take this out.

6 Gotta Beat (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the one with entirely different form and upside. Solid enough on debut at Mornington before going to Traralgon where she produced sustained speed from the front and gave nothing else a look in, leading throughout and was strong to the line. That was at 1200m. Now has to go to 1400m, but rolls forward and will give herself every chance.

1 Zoutellus (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to have returned enormous and from the soft gate, he is clearly the one to beat. It was a moderate Class 1 at Stony Creek last time over the mile but he made an absolute mess of them, winning by 5.5L but it could have easily been further. Home deck, gate one, moderate depth here, in form…all points to him winning.

2 Ancient Egypt (Bet Now:  $SP.00) finds the easiest race he has contested in some time so this is well and truly D-Day. He ran over this trip at The Valley last time where he was on speed and there to threaten but once the pressure was applied, he folded and was plain behind Highland Jakk. This looks a very suitable race for him with his best…just not sure where he is at.

5 Sarnia (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a mare that is absolutely flying for Reece Goodwin. Dominant all the way win over the mile here three back before a plain effort at Stony Creek. The stable then backed her up a week later, stepped her up in trip, found the front and she didn’t give her rivals a look in, leading throughout and was pretty impressive. Finds the front here and will give cheek I am sure.

Been waiting and waiting to see initiative aboard 1 True Marvel (Bet Now:  $SP.00) and I am hoping in a 70 over 3000m at Cranbourne, we get to see it. He ran in the Bagot and much like McDougall in the Sandown Cup, I thought it was a very negative ride from Williams, leaving the run far too late. To me, they have been trying to dodge the handicap and keep him on ice for 3000m+ races, which he finds here. He has panels on these and J Mott isn’t a negative rider.

5 Monreal (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a stablemate of True Marvel that is knocking on the door. He ran over this trip two weeks ago at The Valley where he kept finding the line after doing a stack of work out wide early, running a game second to the in form Meiner Legacy. He has the 3000m run under the belt, he isn’t badly in at the weights and maps to get a lovely run in transit.

6 Alienated (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a 3000m+ specialist so getting back up to this trip, he is a sneaky chance at a big price. He ran over 2000m here last Friday night when wide and doing work in the run, tiring late behind Riverina Cyclone. He is suited back up to 3000m and Laura Lafferty has ridden hm well previously. A win wouldn’t totally shock, but he is a first four contender.

1 Vongole (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the throw at the stumps in the get out. Enver Jusufovic trains this gelding, who ran at The Valley last time…well I say ran, but it was more a barrier trial. He had zero luck when it counted and was under a hold for the most part. This is a massive drop in grade/depth for him and with the smaller field, he won’t be far away and can launch late.

5 Galactic Fury (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks suited back to this level for the Maher/Eustace camp. This gelding has raced over 1400m at Flemington his past couple, the latest on New Years Day where he got a fair way out of his ground and made up some headway but was never a threat behind Obfuscation. If he gets luck from the tricky gate, I think he’ll take beating.

4 Ambidazzle (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Phillip Stokes trained mare that resumes. This girl ended last prep on a high with a strong win on the Synthetic at Pakenham. She is a mare who can sprint well fresh and with three jumpouts under the belt, she seems to have had a decent enough grounding to run well fresh, so watch the market.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 1 True Marvel

NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 1 Zoutellus

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 1 Vongole

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 5, 6, 7

Leg Two: 1

Leg Three: 1

Leg Four: 1, 3, 4, 5, 6

$50 Investment = 250% of the dividend if successful

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