12/7/2025 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield, Sir John Monash Stakes day

Nine races will be run and won at Caulfield this Saturday for Sir John Monash Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is soft (6) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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10 Castellito (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks a good mover for Grahame Begg and I think she can make a winning debut. She jumped out last week at Cranbourne and while she was in the best ground, gee she moved well and seemingly had plenty in hand. Stable is flying and for mine, she looks ready to go.

1 Gin Spirit (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a pretty sharp short course filly for Team Hayes that resumes. She did nice things in the Autumn, highlighted by a dominant win at Morphettville in the Cinderella before a placing at Flemington in the Ottawa. Jumpout work has been strong, she appeals.

6 Shystar (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Phillip Stokes trained filly that resumes. She debuted in the Summer in the Blue Diamond Preview at Sandown and was okay late from the back but was never really a threat. Given a good break and has looked in jumpout work, so watch betting.

5 Stay Humble (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Ciaron Maher trained three year old that resumes. He hasn’t raced since the CS Hayes when outclassed on paper and ran accordingly behind Sepals. Given a good break and his jumpout work has been strong, so watch the market.

1 Salsa Fellow (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a few weeks between runs since racing down the straight at Flemington when far from disgraced in defeat behind She’s An Artist, spotting them a start and was okay late but never a factor. Back to this level, he appeals.

2 Bold Bastille (Bet Now:  $SP.00) lands on speed and her best is clearly good enough. The question is, is she cooked? She led at Flemington when resuming and was one of the first beat, being quite plain in the run to the line. Back to a bending track, she likes Caulfield, dangerous if she can improve enough.

2 Supercilious (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is hard to beat here I say third up from a spell. She hasn’t raced since June 21 down the straight at Flemington when far from disgraced in defeat behind She’s An Artist. Like her onto a bending track and up to 1400m, back in depth, she takes beating.

3 Xarpo (Bet Now:  $SP.00) steps up to 1400m after a first up win over 1200m here a fortnight back, landing near the speed and credit to him, she was there to be beaten but she found to fend them off. Good upside to come, she’s in the mix.

1 Too Darn Discreet (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Dan O’Sullivan trained filly that resumes. She was strong in the Spring but only had the one Autumn run, which came over 1400m at Flemington in the Desirable when far from disgraced behind Cilacap. Jumped out really well to my eye and she looks ready to go.

Class should get 2 Jimmy The Bear (Bet Now:  $SP.00) home. He won the Winter Championship Final last Saturday and I loved the way he dug in late. He was there to be beaten but he found under pressure to get the win. Yet to prove himself at 2000m but given the lack of depth, hard fit, he appeals.

1 Pounding (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the other class runner and has run well at 2000m previously. He ran behind Jimmy The Bear last Saturday at Flemington, getting off speed and finding the line well enough when close up, beaten under two lengths. 2000m is fine I think, he wins.

8 Boga Legend (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should be fine at 2000m and is one of the knockout hopes after placing over the mile at Ballarat when off speed and kept chasing in a pretty good effort in defeat behind Governor King. He is racing like 2000m suits and strikes a winnable race with his best.

2 Stop The Rock (Bet Now:  $SP.00) could have gone to the Mahogany Final last Saturday as a leading chance but has been kept on ice and saved for the 2000m here. He was a strong winner three weeks ago, proving too good for Shockletz, who won the Mahogany Final, so the form reads super and this looks well within reaco for him.

1 American Wolf (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an interesting runner for Busuttin/Young. He hasn’t raced since the SA Derby where he got too far out of his ground but was good late in the piece behind Femminile. Fresh at 2000m is fine given the residual fitness and he has a touch of quality about him.

10 Monte Cassino (Bet Now:  $SP.00) comes to town for Glen Thompson off the back of a maiden win at Wodonga where he looked a good thing on paper and despite a few nervous moments in the run, class kicked in and he was miles too good. Not sure he wins, but is a first four contender.

6 Keep Your Cool (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has done little wrong this prep for Ciaron Maher and is one of the hardest to beat. She resumed with a strong win at Mornington before racing here two weeks ago when leading and giving a strong kick but was nabbed late by Zou Sensation. Has a touch of quality on her side vs these so for mine, she’s hard to beat.

8 Kahhoff (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is three weeks between runs since racing over this trip at Flemington when near the speed throughout and he tried hard but couldn’t quite see it through but was still good in defeat behind Cafe Millennium. Racigng well and strikes a winnable race.

5 Umgawa (Bet Now:  $SP.00) hasn’t fire a shot this time in but this is one of the weaker races he has seen in some time. He has been freshened up since May 31 when down the track at this track/distance behind Namesake. Tick over jumpout was solid, watch betting.

5 Run Harry Run (Bet Now:  $SP.00) on top in an open race. He is four weeks between runs since racing over this trip at Sandown when on speed throughout and he tried hard but couldn’t quite see it through, nabbed late by Hughes. Good racing style, likes Caulfield, hard to beat.

9 The Open (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to be given respect for Team Payne after placing a fortnight back at this track/distance. He lobbed into a good spot near the speed and kept coming late, but couldn’t quite see it through when third. Racing well and should be around the mark.

4 El Soleado (Bet Now:  $SP.00) takes beating after his first up second to Marble Nine a few weeks ago down the Flemington straight. He chased with real purpose late but just couldn’t quite get there. Good upside to come and rising in trip, he’s one of the hardest to beat.

The query is that he is cast after the Hong Kong trip. But, I will say in two runs back for 2 Recommendation (Bet Now:  $SP.00), they have each been on roads. He is a horse who loves to get his toe in and there is decent rain forecast for tomorrow through to Friday, so I suspect we will be on a track with genuine give and he has been crying out for it. Spanked them in this race last year and at the price, I think he’s worth a speck.

6 In Flight (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been given a five week freshen up since winning the Bob Charley at Randwick. Credit to her, she had to dig in late to get the win but really liked the way she knuckled down. Tick over trial was good and the stable rarely get it wrong when they go on the road for a hit-and-run.

11 Lingani (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a sneaky first four hope. She resumed over 1000m at Morphettville Parks two weeks back where she got run off her legs early but picked up late and was good to the line behind Sir Now. Fitter, fast run 1100m, she can launch late.

5 Aztec State (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to have returned in beast mode and all things being equal, I think he wins again. The win first up, which was four weeks ago at Sandown, was electric, giving them a start but an absolute beating, letting down with electric change up speed. Upside/improvement, it’s good luck beating him I think.

9 Pudding (Bet Now:  $SP.00) comes back to 1700m after racing over 2000m here a fortnight back. He got into a decent spot in transit off speed and was there to threaten but just whacked in the run to the line behind Sayedaty Sadaty. Back to 1700m and back in depth, he appeals for sure.

13 Ocean Beyond (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is on the seven day back up after racing last Saturday in the Winter Championship Final. He got a fair way out of his ground but worked home with purpose in a good effort in defeat behind Jimmy The Bear. Holds his fom and he takes beating.

BEST BET: Race One Number 10 Castellito

NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 5 Aztec State

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 2 Recommendation

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 5, 6, 8, 10

Leg Two: 5, 9

Leg Three: 2, 3, 5, 6, 11

Leg Four: 5

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