12/3/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Australian Cup day

I want to give 9 Moko (Bet Now: $8.50 TOP ODDS) another chance. Team Freedman filly that resumed in the Blue Diamond Prelude where she was nearer the inside, which wasn’t the spot to be, so want to be forgiving of that effort behind Revolutionary Miss. Drawn out, has the A1 form, she’ll take holding out I suspect.

Hate 8 Ruthless Dame (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) back to 1200m from her debut win over 1300m, but the win was sharp, which came at Sandown. Wide with cover before Jamie Kah gave her clear air and she let down powerfully late to score, and clocked some good late splits in winning. Keen to see how she goes.

1 Kiki Express (Bet Now: $18.00 TOP ODDS) can bounce back against her own sex. Thrown in the deep end in the Blue Diamond and was just outclassed behind Daumier. She was only second up so you’d like to think there is room for improvement and back against the Fillies, she commands respect.

9 Groovy Kinda Love (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) is bursting to win a race. Her racing pattern lets her down, but that wasn’t the sole reason for her defeat three weeks ago. It wasn’t the best of steers from Prebble and I think with a decent ride, she goes close to beating Yonce, who I feel is a Group l winner in waiting, so the form reads well.

3 Rocha Clock (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) is proven at the track/distance and I think can be a big improver. Resumed in the Millie Fox at Rosehill and the track rating, plus race shape, just worked against her, so want to be forgiving of the run. Good second up record and should appreciate firmer footing and up to the mile.

5 Invinciano (Bet Now: $26.00 TOP ODDS) is three weeks between runs since racing at Rosehill where she was near the speed and I thought she had her chance in the straight when down the track behind Sky Lab. Tick over trial behind Cape Breton was good and her best is certainly good enough to run a positive race at a price.

8 Zarastro (Bet Now: $2.80 TOP ODDS) is a very interesting runner. Chris Waller three year old that had a two run Spring prep, which saw him win both times, albeit in easier races than this. He has trialled up super leading in and stable in Victoria since January 1 have been flying. Must be respected.

1 General Beau (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) is a Matty Ellerton trained three year old that was thrown in the deep end first up in the Oakleigh Plate and I thought he was far from disgraced in defeat behind Marabi after getting back in the run. Much better suited here I feel and is a definite winning chance.

9 Lloyd’s Crown (Bet Now: $9.50 TOP ODDS) is a talented animal for Bec Waymouth that resumed at Sandown where he was crunched in betting and after sitting on speed, he made a mess of them and was much too good. Has run well down the straight before, and has good upside to come.

10 Sumatra (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS) looks like a 1400m-1600m horse…or she’s no good. I think she’s the former, and I think she’ll be quite strong late. I was keen on her at Ballarat and if you were on, it was just a horrendous watch. She is a filly who needs room to go through her gears and behind the speed, a tiring speed, it was ugly viewing. Clear air here, I think she’ll finish off hard.

1 Merchant Prince (Bet Now: $8.00 TOP ODDS) wasn’t hard to miss in the Blue Diamond. He was unlucky not to be right in the finish, getting badly held up in the straight when seemingly having plenty to offer. Stable won the race last year with Lightsaber and no doubt they can win it this year with this guy.

I like the look of 6 Let’srollthedice (Bet Now: $4.00 TOP ODDS). Danny O’Brien trained colt that was smashed in betting when debuting at Bendigo. He was run off his legs early on the bog but got balanced up and was trucking before edging into clear air and loved the way he found the line to end up bolting in. He’ll eat up 1400m here and I know the stable have a really good opinion of him.

1 Yearning (Bet Now: $5.00) is the one to beat from the Angus Armanasco form reference. She was one of the runs of the day given the race shape and track pattern. Loved the way she closed off from the back to be close up behind Lavish Girl. Thousand Guineas winner so she’ll love the rise to the mile and clearly rates highly among the key winning hopes.

3 Barb Raider (Bet Now: $6.50) is a very good filly for Jerome Hunter. Resumed three weeks ago in the Vanity where she was absolutely smashed in betting and under a confident steer from Williams, she made a mess of them in an arrogant return. Fitter, up to the mile, she’ll take beating.

9 Arktika (Bet Now: $6.50) looks an Oaks horse. Just a matter of which Oaks they head to. 2/2 to start her career, both wins coming over 1400m at Pakenham where she has been dominant each time and the eye has been backed up on the clock. Bred to eat up further, keen to see how she goes.

I am keen on 10 Quantico (Bet Now: $16.00) running well. Good4 or better, he is a gun. I said after his brilliant win down the straight on Cup Day at Flemington that give him dry ground and he’s a Group l winner in waiting. I think he’s the ideal Newmarket horse, on dry ground. I’m keen because he has trialled up super.

3 Lost And Running (Bet Now: $4.00) is comfortably in the top five best 1200m-1400m horses Australia has got. Arrogant first up win in the Southern Cross, helped by an absolute peach from Bowman, who made sure he was a good thing by giving him a 12/10. Kept on ice for this and thought he moved well in his jumpout. Weighted beautifully as well.

16 Artorius (Bet Now: $10.00) looks primed to run a beauty. This has been a clear target race for him after the Coolmore effort in the Spring behind Home Affairs. His problem is his barrier speed. There is none, which was the case first up in the Rubiton. He did his thing of producing some great late splits. It means nothing without early speed. If he’s within range, he can win.

2 Think It Over (Bet Now: $2.80) is the form horse leading into this race and I’d say is the most genuine. Brilliant first up winner of the Apollo before going to the Chipping Norton where he ran his heart out but the bottomless track just brought him undone. Gets firmer footing, hard fit, maps super…he’ll look the winner at some stage.

If 12 Duais (Bet Now: $7.00) brings to Melbourne what she has produced in Sydney this time in, she’s hard to beat. Her two runs this time in have been outstanding. Good late splits fresh in the Apollo before going to the Chipping Norton where really, any amount of normal luck and she wins. Dry deck, 2000m, in form, upside…it points to her going awfully close.

3 Spanish Mission (Bet Now: $5.00) has the runs on the board. Is this a Grand Final for him though? He is the class runner of the field, and I thought was a definite pass mark in the Carlyon Cup fresh…but overall, I think that form is rubbish, and I still think that is the case. But, he does have class and it will carry him a long way.

I’ll take a chance with 11 Fourhometwo (Bet Now: $5.50). Former Irish galloper that makes his Australian debut for Annabel Neasham. He was purchased and sent to Australia last year for the Golden Eagle but things didn’t go to plan and was spelled. Just a couple of quiet trials leading in but he looks to have a fair amount of class.

3 Kissonallforcheeks (Bet Now: $4.20) brings the WA form and very rarely it doesn’t measure up. This mare resumed a few weeks ago in the Cyril Flower at Ascot and worked to the line strongly from off the speed behind This’ll Testya. Proven big time performer from the WA Summer Carnival and fitter, up to 1400m, she’s likeable.

10 Cherry Tortoni (Bet Now: $13.00) can be an improver second up. Resumed three weeks back in The Elms where he paraded like he would need the run and that’s the way he raced I thought when down the track behind Corner Pocket. He should be better for the run so an improved showing is expected.

5 Cardigan Queen (Bet Now: $2.30) looks the safe option in the get out. Interesting that the stable are dodging the Kewney to run here. She was unlucky in the Vanity. Whether she was going to beat Barb Raider is another story but it was a ripping run and she should take beating here.

8 Linas Legend (Bet Now: $9.50) deserves another chance. Condition just blew out fresh behind Generation in the Manfred. He then went to the CS Hayes where he was just too bad to be true in a down the track effort. His Spring form would see him go close in a race like this.

4 Blushing Tycoon (Bet Now: $23.00) is a Busuttin/Young trained three year old that resumes. Hasn’t raced since the Spring when outclassed and probably a tired horse when down the track in the Sandown Guineas. He’s trialled up okay, he likes Flemington and Nash does seem to click with this stable.

BEST BET: Race Five Number 1 Yearning

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 2 Think It Over

LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 10 Quantico

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 3, 10, 13, 16

Leg Two: 2, 12

Leg Three: 3, 9, 10, 11

Leg Four: 4, 5, 8, 9

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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