12/3/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Kembla Grange, Kembla Grange Classic day

Bit surprised that 2 Dr Evil (Bet Now: $8.50) is the price he is at around $8+. Last couple of runs have come over the mile at Gosford. Good late two back when second before racing there again around two weeks ago and he had no luck at all. Think had he got a clear passage with full momentum, he goes close to winning. Happy to speck at the odds.

Regan Bayliss is stable rider for Anthony Cummings so him jumping off Kobestar to steer 3 Contract Signed (Bet Now: $3.00) could be a lead perhaps. They clashed in a 1600m maiden at Warwick Farm where Kobestar led, Contract Signed had the 1/1 in what turned into a sit/sprint, and Contract Signed didn’t like that, but picked up very late to run fourth. Think he’s the pick of the two from that race.

5 Chestnut Scaffa (Bet Now: $12.00) can add value to multiples. Few weeks between runs for this guy since racing at Newcastle when off the speed and he chased pretty well I thought in the straight behind Provide, with second in that race being Contract Signed. Does no work from gate one and gets a jockey upgrade.

Going to have a throw at the stumps each way in the shape of 4 Quest For Honour (Bet Now: $20.00), on debut for Joe Pride. He has had three trials this prep to get ready for start one and the first two were so so, but the latest trial, the stable put the Blinkers on and he went much better when second to Najmaty, who bolted up on Wednesday at Randwick, so the trial form reads well and is bred to handle a wet track.

I dare say it would have been a tough call to geld 5 Stelvio (Bet Now: $2.00) given he is by Lonhro out of the former top class mare Guelph. But, he is gelded and they think he’ll make a good race horse. Debuted in August and was good late without a whole lot of luck. Spelled, gelded and two trials have been strong to the eye.

10 Our Lancette (Bet Now: $11.00) can be an improver here. She was hard in the market when debuting at Gosford. Had a nice sit just off the speed and was there to threaten on the turn. Just couldn’t quite finish it off behind Attribution but far from disgraced. Needs to improve off that, but in the right camp to do so.

I think 2 Patrolling (Bet Now: $2.60) is the way to go, but $2.50/thereabouts is on the skinny side. $3+ I could entertain as a betting proposition. Resumed over 1200m at Canterbury and seemed to have his chance, but was far from disgraced in defeat behind Hinchbeast. This looks well within his reach and is a winner on heavy ground from his debut so rain won’t hurt.

6 Noble Privilege (Bet Now: $5.00) is an interesting runner. Lonhro three year old that resumes and returns to racing as a gelding. Hasn’t raced since breaking the maiden tag at Hawkesbury when on speed throughout and proving too good. The trial was just fair, but always have to respect the stable.

The weather will determine the chances of 3 My Blue Jeans (Bet Now: $26.00). If the rain doesn’t arrive, he’s a $31+ chance. But if it comes and properly comes, then he is around a $15 chance. His first up form is patchy, but he is a swimmer who runs well at this track and stable finds Marquand to steer.

Concede Subedar looks the obvious, but no spoils re price. That’s why each way, you’ll get a great run for your money with 5 Kosciusko (Bet Now: $8.50), who is flying at the moment for the Lee team. Led throughout to win at Warwick Farm last start and ran good overall time from the front with 58kg. Tumbles down to 51kg after the claim, he’ll be in front and I hope Jones makes sure this is a proper 1200m contest, and not a sit/sprint.

A potential wet track is the only thing stopping 3 Subedar (Bet Now: $1.70) being a good thing to my eye. If this track was dry, no betting, he wins. Just unsure on wet ground, but he comes here off a sharp win, bolting up two weeks ago in a sit/sprint down the straight at Flemington, his first run in seven weeks. He’ll look the winner for a large portion of the race.

4 Segalas (Bet Now: $5.00) is a quality mare for James Cummings that resumes. This girl hasn’t raced since November 28 at Rosehill when back and working home okay without threatening behind He’s A Hotshot. She’s a mare who loves getting her toe in, so for her fans, hopefully the rain arrives, and her best is good enough to be around the mark.

Giving 4 Alakahan (Bet Now: $2.50) another chance. Team Freedman trained stayer that is on the quick back up after racing last Wednesday over 2200m at Warwick Farm. He was well tried to win the race but just got a bit too far back in the run and was never a winning threat, but did make up headway at the end. Marquand rides from gate one and a bit of give in the ground suits. Hard to beat.

It’s been nearly two years since 1 Main Stage (Bet Now: $5.00) has won a race, but in his short time with Gwenda Markwell, I do feel that a win is near. Looked like it would come at Canterbury last time out when charging home out wide. Just failed to get there when a close up third to Mars. Up in trip no issue and Bossy knows a thing or two about a staying race.

6 Eugenio (Bet Now: $11.00) isn’t the most reliable horse going around but I reckon John Thompson has him going well. Was one of the first off the bit last start at Newcastle but stayed on and was pretty good late I thought when a closing fourth. He is a winner at this track/distance and won’t mind rain, provided it’s not too much.

1 Golly I’m Lucky (Bet Now: $8.50) rises significantly in weight, but $15/thereabouts is just the wrong price. He has superior form lines to what he is up against here, with his latest effort being an eye catching fourth in the Canberra Mile behind Outback Diva. He likes wet ground, loves Kembla and back to 1400m no issue. Great gamble at the odds.

Michelle Ritchie has done a fab job with 6 Blue Missile (Bet Now: $6.50). She has nursed this gelding back to health from near death and has won his past two in impressive fashion, the latest being an all the way winner at Rosehill in a Highway. Lands on speed pretty comfortably here I suggest and will take running down.

8 Seduction Queen (Bet Now: $8.50) is a daughter of Kermadec for the Freedman camp that is resuming. This girl hasn’t raced since December 1 at Newcastle over 1870m when beating up an average lot in what was pretty much a 600m barrier trial. Trials leading in have been pretty good and usually sprints well fresh.

I’m with 4 Brookspire (Bet Now: $3.10) for Chris Waller. Things didn’t fall into place for her fresh on the Kenso track but was very good at the end when third to Harmony Rose, who of course measured up in the Randwick Guineas, so that form clearly reads well for a race like this and she’s in the right stable.

2 Elizabeel (Bet Now: $2.30) is a good filly for John Sargent who should prove hard to beat here. Thought her effort in the Surround was full of merit, finishing her race off nicely from off the speed when third to dominant winner Forbidden Love. This race lacks serious depth and she’s the one progressing nicely.

7 Nothinsweetaboutme (Bet Now: $13.00) lacks the class of some of these, but one thing she does have going for her is the racing pattern she has, which will give herself every chance of an upset win. Impressive debut winner at Canberra before going to Goulburn when leading throughout and she showed good ticker late to fend them off. Harder here, but think she’ll run a bold race from the front.

5 Favreau (Bet Now: $2.00) is heading towards the Derby. Just staying at the mile is the knock with him, but he is ticking along beautifully. Big win from him to win at Canberra last time after looking in awful trouble halfway down the straight. He’s heading in the right direction and will be strong late.

6 Sidearm (Bet Now: $6.00) should be suited up to the mile for John O’Shea. Resumed over 1400m at Newcastle where he got back, wide with cover, and finished off strongly late to run a close up second to a handy type in French Bonnet. Fitter, up in trip with Bowman to steer, has a bit going for him.

10 Miss Jenny (Bet Now: $23.00) should always be given some level of respect when racing on her home track here. Ran over this track/distance last time out and worked home quite well without threatening behind Segrill. Loves to get her toe in…not sure I could back her to win, but a must for multiples.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 4 Brookspire

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 2 Dr Evil

LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 1 Golly I’m Lucky

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 6

Leg Two: 1, 3, 6, 7, 8

Leg Three: 2, 4

Leg Four: 5, 6, 8, 10

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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