Rosehill backs up from the weekend with another strong eight race card on Saturday afternoon to run alongside Derby Day at Flemington. The weather is fine, the track is good and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit. The last time they raced in the true position was on Golden Rose Day on September 13 and on that afternoon, away from the rail and off the speed was the way to win.
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Race One (12:30): CFMEU/West Tradies Plate 1100m: Form Guide
Back Me: It was just a tick under 12 months that we saw the star filly Earthquake make her race debut with a stunning win, and we could well be seeing another good from Godolphin, this time with Exosphere (Best Odds: $1.75). Nicely bred son of Lonhro who looked very sharp in a trial win last week at Warwick Farm, spacing his rivals by six lengths under a strangle hold from McDonald. Time was slow compared to the other heats run that morning, but the manner in which he won was clearly a sign he is a good one and will take a power of beating here.
Big Danger: Brooklyn was an impressive trial winner prior to his flop debut run at Randwick behind Pierette (Best Odds: $4.40) dropping out badly over the concluding stages, but he was four wide with no cover for the trip, so there were excuses. If he can a more cosy run and produce better race manners, he can be in the finish.
Roughie: Bar Stories (Best Odds: $34.00) ran in the Gimcrack Stakes (1000m) on debut and made a mess of the start, virtually throwing away any realistic winning hopes she had. She went back to the trials a couple of weeks back here and went pretty good I thought behind Bannatyne. Has race experience on her side, which is an advantage.
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Race Two (1:10pm): AMWU Handicap (71) 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Mohave (Best Odds: $2.45) sat outside Super Willie first up at Canterbury and those two dominated from the front, with the latter just holding on. Mohave had his chance and was given a gun ride by McEvoy, but the other horse just proved too good. He then ran in the Brian Crowley at Randwick and was far from disgraced when fifth to Kuro, who is unbeaten this Spring and will go around in the Group l Coolmore Stud at Flemintgon, so that form reads well for a benchmark 72.
Big Danger: Confederate (Best Odds: $4.60) took care of a small field at Kensington last week, leading throughout and scraping home to beat Our Little Miracle. That was over 1150m, and given there was bias towards leaders, I would have liked him to kick a bit better, so there is a concern about him running 1200m here, but he is fit, has talent and will give a good account of himself, especially if he gets a cheap sectional.
Roughie: Next Level (Best Odds: $8.50) resumes here for Gary Portelli after two runs during the latter part of Winter. First up he won narrowly at Warwick Farm in a good form race subsequently, then went to Randwick and ran behind Almalad. Two trials leading up to this have been sharp and appears to be a horse who races best fresh.
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Race Three (1:50pm): Turner Freeman Lawyers Flying Handicap 1100m: Form Guide
Back Me: Really keen to see how the North Queensland star Our Boy Malachi (Best Odds: $2.25) goes here for Team Hawkes. He was simply too good for them up North, and finished off his time up there with a brilliant win in the Rockhampton Newmarket (1300m). The owners sent him to Team Hawkes, and gee he looks like has improved if his trial effort behind Encostanati was any indication. He is going to be a handy sprinter to follow for the next couple of months and I am confident he can get the job done fresh.
Big Danger: Dances On Stars (Best Odds: $4.60) resumes here for Gerald Ryan after a mixed Winter prep. He took out the Prime Ministers Cup (1300m) at the Gold Coast before failing in the BRC Sprint (1350m) and QTC Cup (1300m) behind River Lad and Sacred Star respectively. One took out the Stradbroke and the latter has performed well at Group l level in New Zealand, so the form stacks up well, and he looked very good in a recent barrier trial here. Flies fresh and is trained on the track, so he will prove hard to hold out.
Roughie: Barbed was ridden close to the speed in the Lightning (1100m) at Randwick and just couldn’t keep up with Deep Field, who toyed with them. He stuck on okay, but was no match for the classy victor. He finds his right level here, and I’d like to see him ridden with cover given there is plenty of speed engaged here.
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Race Four (2:35pm): Vincents Accountants Handicap (95) 1800m: Form Guide
Back Me: I was very keen on Best Case (Best Odds: $2.70) to win last time out over 2000m at Randwick, but he just didn’t run the distance and was a well beaten third to Order Of The Sun. Back to 1800m suits, as does coming back to Rosehill, where he caught the eye two back behind Rock Sturdy at Group ll level. Getting close to D-Day for him, so I’ll give him one more chance to fill my wallet up.
Big Danger: Equator (Best Odds: $26.00) wasn’t too bad I thought last time out at Randwick behind Excess Knowledge given that was his first run in over a month and Chris Waller did state prior to the race that the horse would improve. So given those comments, and the lack of depth engaged here, I am tipping this horse to run a really cheeky race at odds.
Roughie: Reigning (Best Odds: $10.00) finished ahead of Equator in that Randwick race, and he was also good considering he too was resuming. He generally needs one more run before we see his best, but again, given that this race doesn’t look overly strong, he could run quite a forward race as he improves with race fitness.
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Race Five (3:20pm) : CFMEU Mining/Energy Division Handicap (80) 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Putting Commanding Wit (Best Odds: $5.00) on top. I thought she was just fair behind Diamond Oasis at Warwick Farm, but the form has stood up with that horse winning last Friday night at the Valley. Commanding Wit then stepped up to stakes grade and was very good in the Nivison (1200m) when sixth to Group l placegetter Avoid Lightning, beaten under three lengths. Back to benchmark 80 and a smaller field are two pointers which should see her go very close to winning.
Big Danger: Chatham House (Best Odds: $10.00) resumes here for Team Hawkes. She won like a star when resuming at Canterbury, then it really all went wrong for her soon after, with wet tracks and wide barriers not helping her cause. Fresh now, trialled on Tuesday and obviously went well enough to accept here. Good first up record and gets nice weight relief after the 3kg claim for Taylor Marshall.
Roughie: Just A Girl (Best Odds: $10.00) proved too good for her rivals when resuming on the bog track at Warwick Farm a couple of weeks, narrowly edging out Swipeline. She wasn’t really noted as a mare who preferred the wet, but she got through it well enough to win, telling me she has come in great order this time in, and the trials did indicate that. Big weight here, but a soft draw, firmer track and being in her own backyard should see her right in the finish.
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Race Six (4:05pm) : Blacktown Workers Club Handicap (80) 1500m: Form Guide
Back Me: Please All Cerise...(Best Odds: $3.60) please get there this time! Her three runs back from a little freshen up have been outstanding, and at her last two, she has looked the winner, but hasn’t quite gone on with it. Loomed to beat Mahara last time out at Randwick, but that mare just kicked too good despite All Cerise coming again on the line. That mare is going around in the Myer Classic at Flemington, so that really reads well for a benchmark 80. If ever All Cerise is going to win, this is the race.
Big Danger: The big improver here is Casino Dancer (Best Odds: $34.00). She has had two runs back from a break, and has been unsuited on both occasions thanks to a shorter trip and wide barriers. She made up ground in that Mahara race at Randwick, so with an extra 100m to run here and an inside gate, I am tipping her to run a beauty at odds.
Roughie: Alpha Beat (Best Odds: $8.00) wasn’t suited by the slow tempo when resuming at Randwick, running sixth to the stablemate Aomen, who controlled the race from the front. That horse is going towards a Group l, so his form also reads well, and was an impressive second up winner last time in. Hard to beat.
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Race Seven (4:50pm) : Bradford Soundscreen Handicap 1350m: Form Guide
Back Me: Fine Bubbles (Best Odds: $3.50) won the Tibbie Stakes (1400m) during the Newcastle carnival, then ran fifth behind Arabian Gold in the Golden Pendant (1400m) before a close up fourth to Mahara at Randwick despite racing too close to the speed. She is better ridden with cover and saved for the last drop hence why a senior rider is on.
Big Danger: Rare Fragrance (Best Odds: $3.30) ran third to Mahara at Randwick, and she was quite good there I thought given she had to wait for a run, and once she did get clear, she hit the line with purpose. She was ridden forward two back at Kensington, which isn’t normally her racing pattern, but given there is only one natural speed horse here, Winona Costin could fire this mare and then look to trail Swipeline. That will be her best chance to win, because I doubt she can make up the sufficient ground from where she normally races.
Roughie: Said Com resumes for another prep after again teasing last prep both in Sydney and Melbourne. His last three runs were behind Scream Machine and then Akavoroun at his next two, and with both horses both at Group l class, and given how weak this race, he does look very well placed on his best form. Runs well fresh and I think at $10 he is worth an each-way ticket. He is a non winner yes, but he hasn’t raced in an easier event since lord knows when.
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Race Eight (5:35pm) : Lidoran Group Handicap (75) 1100m: Form Guide
Back Me: Putting Encostanati (Best Odds: $8.00) on top. This gelding kicks off his four-year-old year after a pretty solid Winter, which saw him place behind the likes of Amovatio and Wonderbolt. Won a recent trial here impressively, beating home stakes performers Lilliburlero and Our Boy Malachi. Runs well fresh, as well as Rosehill. Hard to beat.
Big Danger: Masterstroke (Best Odds: $9.00) resumes off a freshen up. He last raced over 1400m here in September when fourth to Reflectance after getting back in the run. The form out of that since has been quite suspect, but this horse does perform well first up, good stats at the track, and if there is a hot speed, he can run on powerfully late.
Roughie: Shiraz (Best Odds: $3.80) was scratched from last Saturday and instead runs here. He resumed at Warwick Farm and closed off really well late when fourth to Diamond Oasis, who franked that form with a win last Friday night at the Valley. Drawn well, stable is firing and should get a hot speed in front to run on from.
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BEST BET: Race Six Number 3 All Cerise
NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 7 Swipeline
VALUE: Race Eight Number 5 Encostanati
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 10
Leg Two: 3
Leg Three: 3, 6, 7
Leg Four: 2, 4, 5, 9, 10
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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