Spring is officially here and the good horses are stepping out once again this Saturday at Randwick for Chelmsford Stakes Day, the 1600m feature being one of four cracking blacktype events. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out ten metres from the 1600m-Winning Post; Out seven metres for the remainder.
Race 1. (12:10) ATC Heritage Society Handicap (74) 1300m
9 More Sundays (Bet Now: $2.10 FAT ODDS) looks a really good prospect for the Hayes/Dabernig team. Bred to be a star and could well be a star. Debuted in a maiden at Geelong where he was well supported and led all the way to win with so much class and dominance. Trialled like a bomb last week at Rosehill and the big track and 1300m looks perfect.
4 Ranier (Bet Now: $7.00 FAT ODDS) looks a key threat. James Cummings trains this colt, who resumed against Miss Fabulass at Canterbury and on the day, she was clearly no match for that Group l class filly but she didn’t turn it up at all and stuck on bravely to run second. He’s had a boom on him for a while…it’s getting close to D-Day to show if he’s a contender or pretender.
5 Aristocratic Miss (Bet Now: $10.00 FAT ODDS) is a Tony McEvoy trained filly who could easily measure up in the better races during the Melbourne Spring. Needed to get the maiden win out of the way and did it in impressive fashion on the Geelong Synthetic, trucking up beautifully before angling wide and finishing best. Confident she can measure up.
Race 2. (12:50) NJT Handicap (88) 1600m
This looks a lovely race for 3 Old North (Bet Now: $14.00 FAT ODDS) to bounce back to positive form. Really liked his resumption behind Albumin before being freshened, having a tick over trial, then racing in the Spring Preview where he got back and couldn’t come on behind Flow. Third up at the mile, back in depth, he gets his chance.
10 Gamblestown (Bet Now: $17.00 FAT ODDS) is the interesting runner. He was down to run in a much easier race on Wednesday at Canterbury but was pulled out and instead tackles this…hint of stable confidence? Did an enormous job over 1400m here a fortnight ago against the bias when working home strongly behind Kaonic. Last time he won, Moses was reading out the Ten Commandments, but off last start, he’s a definite threat.
11 Jake’s Hill (Bet Now: $21.00 FAT ODDS) is the interesting runner. The Chris Waller trained import resumed at the Gold Coast a fortnight back and if you were on, like me, it was painful viewing. Was building really good momentum and was there to win but then got chopped out of the run and his race was done after that. Give him better luck, keen to see what he does.
Race 3. (13:25) TAB Highway Handicap (Class 3) 1400m
Bit of a dartboard job here. 12 Not Bossy (Bet Now: $12 FAT ODDS) was scratched from an easier race at Goulburn on Friday in preference for this, so I like that bit of stable confidence. Ran in the Butchoy Highway here a fortnight back and worked home well from the back to run third to the Mack Griffith runner. Awkward draw, but she’ll be strong late and does have solid recent Highway form under the belt.
5 Safe Landing (Bet Now: $7.50 FAT ODDS) looks a nice type for Kurt Goldman who was solid enough in a Canterbury maiden two back before going to Goulburn where he got the kill but the manner in which he did it was sharp, winning by nearly six lengths without being fully extended. Off that run, he should have no issue with 1400m.
2 Athonis (Bet Now: $5.25 FAT ODDS) is an above average son of Stravinsky for the Joseph/Jones team who resumed with a close up third at Kembla behind Impasse before racing on the Acton track at Canberra where he led all the way and absolutely bolted in, with his class coming to the fore. Runner up has won since, so the form reads okay and he has upside.
Race 4. (14:00) Schweppes Handicap (88) 2000m
Hard to get away from 6 All Too Soon (Bet Now: $3.50 FAT ODDS). Dirty on myself I didn’t back her last Saturday given how well she closed off first up. Last Saturday over 1500m at Rosehill, Tye took full use of the inside gate and once she was so close to them at the top of the straight, she was always in control. Has upside and the way she charged through the line, she looks to be on an upward spiral.
9 Domed (Bet Now: $26.00 FAT ODDS) might need one more run but she’s certainly got the talent to be beating these. Resumed three weeks back over 1400m at Rosehill where she was near last in the run throughout and was never likely but picked up and was good late behind Irithea. Quickly up to 2000m but does have a turn of foot and a stack of upside.
12 Boomtown Rat (Bet Now: $41.00 FAT ODDS), I think, is racing well for Ed O’Rourke and can provide some value. Ran over 1900m at Canterbury last time and given he was back near last on a track which has suited those on speed, he didn’t have much chance but finished off strongly behind White Boots, clocking some of the best late splits from the race. 52kg on his back, different form…could surprise.
Race 5. (14:35) Concorde Stakes 1000m
Gravitating towards the best horse, which for mine is clearly 1 Redzel (Bet Now: $2.05 FAT ODDS). He’s the proven champ who probably lost a couple of credits after getting beat in 3/4 runs during the Autumn, but one of those defeats came at the hands of Redkirk Warrior, another by Trapeze Artist in unbelievable circumstances, and the other came in the 10,000 at Doomben where he looked tired. Two trials leading in, the latest was a blitz job with the blinkers going on. Expecting him to stamp himself as a leading contender for The Everest.
5 Invincible Star (Bet Now: $2.80 FAT ODDS)…This race will tell us if she’s a proper horse or a pretender. Off her two trials, you’d say yes, she’s a star. But take away the Coolmore run behind Merchant Navy, she’s done nothing. If she comes out and wins this, she should be near the top of betting for The Everest…she can win, but without me. But due to the lack of depth, she’s the main threat.
6 Boss Lane (Bet Now: $91.00 FAT ODDS) is an absolute beauty for the Ron Quinton team who rarely runs a bad race at Randwick. He comes through the Show County from a fortnight ago where he got the nice run on the fence where the bias was and followed it throughout to run third to high class animal Le Romain. Good record at the Randwick 1000m and can run a place again.
Race 6. (15:10) Tramway Stakes 1400m
Yep…I’m doing it. 12 Tom Melbourne (Bet Now: $7.50 FAT ODDS) on top. Yes, Tom Melbourne. Hear me out. In the two preps he has had for Chris Waller, he should have won both resumptions but had no luck first time and the Ajax was a tough 1500m contest, where he was just outgunned late. His two trials leading in have been outstanding, most notably the latter last Monday at Rosehill. He’s got the brilliance to win…hopefully he gets normal and gets his chance. L
1 Le Romain (Bet Now: $3.50 FAT ODDS) is clearly the class of the field but given his outstanding record, much like the resumption, he’s beautifully in at the weights. Show County was dominant and yes, he got the bias aided run, but bear in mind he gave the runner up 8kg so it evens out I think. He’ll only improve off that and has to be respected.
9 Lanciato (Bet Now: $6.00 FAT ODDS) is a Mark Newnham trained gelding who is absolutely flying at the moment. Resumed in the Missile and as he always does, produces an unbelievable finale to run a close up fourth to Pierata. Tick over trial behind Redzel was very good and up to 1400m, he has to be rated highly here.
Race 7. (15:50) Chelmsford Stakes 1600m
I reckon 6 Libran (Bet Now: $81.00 FAT ODDS) is a great gamble here. He was one of the best runs in the Winx Stakes behind the great mare, clocking 32.77 for his final 600m, splits which were outstanding for a stayer. He is a real second/third up specialist and I think if you back him now and next start, you won’t be going wrong.
15 Unforgotten (Bet Now: $4.60 FAT ODDS) also comes through the Winx Stakes and her effort, visually, was great behind the stablemate, but I think a touch flattered by the fact she was nearer the inside, which was clearly the best part of the track. Still, great finale and she will eat up the extra furlong…plus not dealing with Winx helps.
4 One Foot In Heaven (Bet Now: $21.00 FAT ODDS) had a bit of a wrap on him when he made his Australian debut in the Autumn but failed to live up to the hype in two runs. Been given a good spell and has trialled up really well on a couple of occasions. J Mac has ridden both trials and he rides here. Blinkers FT also and he did finish nine lengths off Enable in an Arc.
Race 8. (16:30) Furious Stakes 1200m
She’s got the boom on her…let’s see how good 12 Miss Fabulass (Bet Now: $4.75 FAT ODDS) is. Only beat two rivals at Canterbury first up but she was ridden upside down, was first up and the tight Canterbury track probably wasn’t her go. 1200m on the bigger track with the run under the belt, and with cover, will she explode like she has promised to do?
3 Pure Elation (Bet Now: $6.00 FAT ODDS) is the big watch for mine. I think she’s got the brilliance to win this and did score a dominant win at this track/distance in the Percy Sykes during the Championships. Did bleed in that race which does leave me with some question marks, but her trials have been good enough, especially the first one. If she brings her best, she’s one of the hardest to beat.
Are we underestimating 8 Pretty In Pink (Bet Now: $14.00 FAT ODDS)? 2/2 for John O’Shea and yep, probably didn’t beat much in her two runs during the Autumn, but it was the manner in which she did it that was impressive, most notably at Scone. Trialled well enough behind Neutrality and she could have last look here if the speed is on.
Race 9. (17:10) Heineken 3 Handicap (94) 1400m
7 Best Of Days (Bet Now: $3.50 FAT ODDS) looks a near good thing. James Cummings trains this import, who made his Australian debut over 1400m here a fortnight back and if you were on, it was painful viewing. Tardy away and then had no luck in the straight when appearing to be bolting. Staying at 1400m looks the only negative.
I reckon 5 Sir Plush (Bet Now: $7.00 FAT ODDS) is going quite well at the moment for Bjorn Baker. Resumed with a solid fifth to Tactical Advantage prior to racing over 1100m at Rosehill three weeks ago where he ran a close up fifth to Trekking. Third up now so he should just about be ready fitness wise and at his best, he can certainly take this out.
11 Insensata (Bet Now: $12.00 FAT ODDS) will welcome the drop in depth/grade. She ran in the Toy Show a fortnight back in a race completely dominated by the leader Egyptian Symbol, who absolutely crawled them along in front and turned it into a 400m dash for cash. Not this girls go. Needs tempo and clear air to show her best. if she gets that, she can win.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Nine Number 7 Best Of Days
NEXT BEST: Race One Number 9 More Sundays
LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 12 Tom Melbourne
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 5, 9, 12, 13
Leg Two: 2, 4, 6, 13, 15
Leg Three: 1, 3, 8, 12
Leg Four: 1, 5, 7, 11
$50 Investment= 12.50% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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