1/11/2025 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Victoria Derby day

The best racing Carnival in Australia is Cup Week at Flemington and it begins this Saturday with Derby Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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4 Call Da Vinci (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should prove hard to beat after resuming two weeks ago at Caulfield. He was a bit raw and fresh but once balanced up, he was quite good late in the piece I thought behind Bacash. He has good room for improvement and should prove to be strong late.

5 Regal Award (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the one in form and has to be respected after his last start romp over this trip at Caulfield where he led throughout and gave nothing else a look in, winning impressively. Good test here, but he appeals.

6 Single Choice (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a good roughie here. Matt Cumani trained three year old that comes through the Tapp-Craig when off speed and was held up at times in restricted room but was good late when eventually clear. I think he’ll love getting to Flemington and is a knockout chance.

4 Sheza Alibi (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a nice filly for Moody/Coleman. She resumed in the Gothic in her first run for the stable and while held by Tentyris, I thought she ran a very credible race taking on some big boys. Fitter, up in trip and back to her own age/sex, she appeals big time.

6 Chatterley (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is hard to beat for Chris Waller after placing in the Reginald Allen where she got held up at times but was good late when eventually clear when third to Panova. Still a maiden but has good talent and should prove hard to hold out.

12 Miss Revealing (Bet Now:  $SP.00) comes straight to Stakes grade for Greg Eurell off the back of a win in a Warrnambool maiden where she didn’t take on a great deal but she made an absolute mess of them and ran decent time for the meeting. Good test here but think she has the engine under the hood to run well.

Gee I think 11 Disneck (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will love the straight course. He is a horse who loves to be cuddled and explode late, as seen two back at Randwick before going to the Sydney Stakes when most unlucky behind Rothfire when held up and IMO, he should have been in the finish. If he gets the right run, I think he can win.

4 Star Patrol (Bet Now:  $SP.00) loves the straight course and clearly appeals. Two runs back, the latest coming here in the Gilgai when third to War Machine in a race that rated through the roof. Lands on speed, class, he’ll tale beating.

9 Geegees Mistruth (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a leading contender after coming through the Caulfield Sprint where she drove hard late from off speed but had no answers late for the finale of Rey Magnerio. Fitter, up in trip, she’s in the mix.

1 Getta Good Feeling (Bet Now:  $SP.00) comes straight to 2000m after the Thousand Guineas. The race shape was against her but she stayed on and was a definite pass mark in defeat behind Ole Dancer. She’s racing as if she’ll eat up 2000m and has the class factor on her side.

7 Fashionable (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a progressive filly for Michael Freedman that is heading in the right direction. She comes here off the back of a win at Hawkesbury over 1800m where she got better as the race went on, driving hard late to score. 2000m no issue, she commands respect.

8 Voting Rights (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks the leader and with front end control, she could run a cheeky race. She got front end control at Ballarat in a maiden last start and that was the difference between winning and losing, just holding on in a driving go. Looks the leader and will give a sight.

2 Payline… (Bet Now:  $SP.00) surely. Surely his time is now. Not sure what the tactics were for Shinn two weeks ago in the Moonga. Whatever they were, it was awful. Ridden like a barrier trial and didn’t really get clear air until it was all too late. He’ll love getting to Flemington and with room to move, he’ll take holding out.

1 Steparty (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is back on track I think for Paul Preusker. Sneaky good run from him in the Moonga. He got a fair way off speed and while he was never beating Private Eye, he found the line pretty well in defeat I thought. If he holds that form here, he will be a leading contender.

8 Regal Zeus (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a John McArdle trained gelding that is second up, potentially with eyes on a race like the Cranbourne Cup maybe? 1200m was too short side last Saturday in the McEwen but the run was a definite pass mark. Better set up here, he’s in the mix.

5 Skyhook (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a very good colt for Ryan/Alexiou and i think he’ll run a beauty here. He has been freshened up since the Golden Rose where he was ridden forward, chasing the strong speed, and tried hard, but just felt the pinch late. Freshened up, moved well late in a jumpout here last week, I think he’ll only run well.

3 Tentyris (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been set for the race and looks cherry ripe after his Gothic triumph two weeks ago at Caulfield. He looked in a hopeless spot 400m out but Zahra was able to weave his magic and in a driving go, finished best. He’ll eat up a hard 1200m and be strong late.

6 Hidden Motive (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has earned a crack here after his Roman Consul triumph. He got on speed favours but credit to him, he was there to be beaten but he found under pressure to fend them off. He’ll be out of trouble near the front and giving an almighty sight.

6 Providence (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has shown signs of life and I think he’s the each way bet here. Observer did clock right off in the Vase, but even allowing for that, I loved the way Providence found the line. First time this prep he has had clear air, room to move and wind up, and he did that. He’ll eat up 2500m at Flemington and is hard to beat I say.

1 Observer (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is clearly hard to beat after what he did in the Vase last Saturday. Admittedly he got front end control and was just too sharp for them. But, was he a touch flattered by the ride, the run he got and how easy he got it? 2040m at The Valley vs 2500m at Flemington…different beasts and while I concede he’s hard to beat, he could blow them away once again…he’s on the short side IMO from a betting perspective.

15 McWoody (Bet Now:  $SP.00) comes through the Caulfield Classic. The way I saw the run was two ways. For that race, I thought it was a bad ride because he went too early in taking off after a soft debut and he just ran out of puff late re putting them away. But from a Derby perspective, it was the perfect run because the debut was soft and he needed a solid 2000m hitout. He’s a good horse, and the 2500m, IMO, is no issue. He’s right in the mix.

11 On Display (Bet Now:  $SP.00) I want to give another chance to. On face value, she was plain here in the Rose Of Kingston, but when you break down the sectionals, she had no chance of getting involved in what was a total forgive. Racing like she’ll eat up 1600m, kept on the fresh side…she appeals each way.

2 Fangirl (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is class and that is going to carry her a long way. She was a total forgive in the King Charles. Bumped when the gates opened, tardy, back last and was never a factor behind Ceolwulf. Gets back to her own age/sex and brings the A1 form.

5 Benagil (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is three weeks between runs since resuming in the Weekend Hussler where she didn’t have the best of luck in the run but got clear and wasn’t too bad in the run to the line behind Zou Sensation. Fitter, up in trip, been set for the race, she can threaten.

14 Flying For Fun (Bet Now:  $SP.00) each way in the last. Bryce Heys trained mare that has been strong in two runs back, the latest coming at Warwick Farm when chasing hard and tried hard but couldn’t quite get there behind Zealously in track record time. Can see her getting good cover and launching late.

2 Arabian Summer (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has class on her side. She ran two weeks ago in the Caulfield Sprint when just off speed and presented to be some sort of danger but just couldn’t quite get there behind Rey Magnerio. Back to Mares grade, she is a clear chance.

15 Photograph (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is second up after resuming at Caulfield where not much went right for her in the run and it ended up being an ugly watch if you were on behind Stretan Angel. Fitter, good upside to come, rider upgrade, she can bounce back.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 1 Getta Good Feeling

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 4 Sheza Alibi

LONG SHOT: Race Three Number 11 Disneck

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 3, 5, 6

Leg Two: 1, 5, 6, 15

Leg Three: 1, 2, 5, 6, 11

Leg Four: 1, 2, 5, 14, 15

$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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