1/1/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Canterbury, Canterbury Sprint day

Canterbury is where New Years Day racing in Sydney heads to this Saturday, headlined by the Canterbury Sprint (1200m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Canterbury Sprint 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Canterbury Sprint

10 Mr Plume (Bet Now:  $SP.00) on top but not really a race I want to get involved in. Both runs back from a spell have come here, resuming with an okay effort over 1550m before stepping up to 1900m and finished off his race strongly when a narrow second to El Bravo. There isn’t a great deal of depth to this race and I do think being third up he is the one with enough upside to take this out.

8 Rangitikei (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has had a few chances to break the maiden tag but is knocking on the door. He ran third in the El Bravo race mentioned above and I thought he worked to the line pretty well late, beaten narrowly in a blanket finish. Should lob into a lovely spot from the inside gate and he has the hard fitness/experience under the belt to prove hard to beat.

7 Keys To Love (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is another that has had her chance to win a race but that said, I think she is flying. Good from the back two back at Tuncurry before going to Gosford where she got back and found the line quite nicely when second. Racing like 1900m will suit and at a big price, I don’t think a win would shock at all given the lack of depth.

8 Shalatin (Bet Now:  $SP.00) gets Blinkers on and Nash is back on, so this is well an truly D-Day for him. I was keen on him when he resumed over 1100m here and I thought was given every chance by Hutchings, just not good enough on the line when second to Cardone. Has that run under the belt and like him up to 1200m with the hungry rider aboard…backing him to win is another matter.

10 Toronomica (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is fitter and maps alright from the gate. Market wanted him when resuming on the Beaumont track at Newcastle where he was on speed and there to win but being first up, condition just gave way late and had to settle for a third. Better for the run under the belt, stable is flying, he does command respect.

7 Nobel (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a knockout hope. First run for Richard Litt came over this trip at Goulburn where he was back near last in the run but loved the way he found the line late in the piece behind Jasiri. Staying at 1200m I find interesting but if the gate can be used to advantage and settle closer in the run, he’ll be dangerous.

13 Rocketeer Girl (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can bounce back. GaiBott trained filly that was kept safe in betting when debuting over 1100m and seemingly had her chance on speed but couldn’t quite finish it off behind impressive winner and stablemate Hi Dubai, who failed with excuses at Gosford on Wednesday. Extra 100m and better for the run, sits on speed, she’ll run well I’m sure.

6 Ishani (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness. Spotted them a big start and was good late fresh over 900m at Newcastle before going to 1100m here where she was far from disgraced in defeat behind Hi Dubai, who failed with excuses last week. Like her up to 1200m and the depth here is nowhere near as strong.

15 Vincetta (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a knockout hope. Didn’t do much on debut at Newcastle before a spell. Resumed at Warwick Farm and worked to the line well in restricted room when third to Victory Lane. Think that form line will stand up and drawn gate one, she’ll do no work in the run and with natural improvement, can win without totally surprising.

Good test here for 1 Willinga Freefall (Bet Now:  $SP.00) but I am confident he can measure up. 3/3 to start his career, being very well placed but there has been a bit of quality about the way he has gone about it, especially last time out at Tuncurry where he was in restricted room but once he found clear air, away he went and he dashed, winning like a good horse. There is a bit of depth to this line up but like him up in trip, maps well and gets in nicely after the claim.

2 African Daisy (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can bounce back. Resumed with a strong win at Scone before being kept quite safe in betting at this track/distance last time and seemingly had her chance behind Sweet Mercy but was far from disgraced. Hard fit now, and with Nash on, I think they’ll be positive, trying to land near the front and proving hard to beat.

Fitter and up to 1550m are two big ticks for 4 Mystic Mermaid (Bet Now:  $SP.00). This mare resumed over 1200m here where she paraded like she would need the run and that’s the way it panned out, but wasn’t too bad late in the piece behind Walkin’talkin’. Might want one more, but draws soft once again and is much better suited up to 1550m. She can run a much improved race.

13 Grebeni… (Bet Now:  $SP.00) gee I’d love to see him back on a bigger track but even allowing for that, he is the most progressive of this lot. Quality win two back at Newcastle before going to Gosford where he looked a moral and the fact that the Stewards have opened an inquiry into the ride says it all. Gets a massive jockey upgrade and with clear air, a chance to build the revs, he’ll take beating.

4 Trust The Process (Bet Now:  $SP.00) maps to do no work in the run and has found positive form. Ran over the mile at Canberra last time and worked to the line quite well from off the speed when second to Glowing Gold. That was his first run in a month so fitter and up in trip, drawn soft with Nash aboard, I think he is a big improver here.

15 Mighty Willie (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness. Stuck to the task very well fresh over 1500m at Hawkesbury before going to this track/distance where he got a fair way out of his ground and worked home well late in the piece without threatening behind Fuller. Gets a soft run from the gate and will be strong late.

Looks to be a stack of speed engaged here so I think it will set up perfectly for 5 Dragonstone (Bet Now:  $SP.00) to sit back and launch. He was plain in the Razor Sharp but the race shape worked against him so forgive and forget he went around in what was a barrier trial. They’ll go quick here, he’ll be sitting off that hot tempo and be one of the strongest late. He’s the bet for me here.

3 I Am Me (Bet Now:  $SP.00) faces a good test here but it’s hard to ignore how good she has been this time in. That said, no place to hide here given she has drawn wide and has a stack of speed drawn underneath so it won’t be a picnic for her, but she did smash the clock when winning at Randwick last time. If she finds the front and gets control, she’ll be a $1.30 pop. But don’t think that happens so she’ll need to work.

10 Invincible Kiss (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can run a cheeky race at a price if she lands near the front. Ridden with a sit two weeks back at Randwick and it backfired because she didn’t finish her race off at all behind Our Bellagio Miss. She races best when she has clear air on speed. Go back to prior efforts behind the likes of Key Largo and I Am Me, gee it reads well to command a bit of respect.

Beware the unbeaten horse so I am with 6 Tsarina Sophia (Bet Now:  $SP.00) for the Ryan/Alexiou camp. Resumed over 1000m at Wyong where I don’t think she was entirely comfortable on the tight track but she balanced up in the straight and launched late to get the job done, making it 2/2 to start her career. Fitter and up in trip on a bigger track, good upside, she’s hard to beat.

4 Girl Mania (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Jean Dubois trained mare that resumes. Her last run came on August 24 on the Kenso track when back and wide, making up good ground late in the piece behind Depth That Varies. She is a mare who can pull out a decent run fresh and to the eye has trialled up really well in readiness for her return. Maps to do no work, watch the market.

2 Super Bright (Bet Now:  $SP.00) resumes here for Nathan Doyle and I think can be quite dangerous here. Last run came on October 22 at Randwick in a Midway where she was near last in the run and rocketed to the line late behind Liberty Sun. Can sprint well fresh and looked sharp in a Wyong trial win. Drawn tricky, but her best is clearly good enough to take this out.

8 Ringmaster (Bet Now:  $SP.00) on top for me in the get out. Michael Freedman trained three year old that resumes, having not raced since the Tapp-Craig when struggling on an absolute bottomless deck behind Opal Ridge, who was one of the better performed fillies in the Spring. Trials getting ready have been encouraging and if indeed he’s going to be a Stakes class horse, he’d want to put this field away.

1 For Valour (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a son of Zoustar for the GaiBott camp that resumes. He hasn’t raced since July 9 when struggling in the wet behind stablemate Cross Talk, a subsequent Stakes winner. He likes Canterbury, he sprints well fresh and has trialled up very well on a number of occasions to get ready for the return, so watch the market.

9 Lease (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Ryan/Alexiou trained four year old that resumes. He had a busy Autumn/Winter prep, which ended with a down the track effort over the Warwick Farm mile behind Rondino. He can pull out a run fresh and he’s two trials to get ready have been quite encouraging, so watch the market.

BEST BET: Race Five Number 13 Grebeni

NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 5 Dragonstone

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 8 Ringmaster

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 13

Leg Two: 3, 5

Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 6

Leg Four: 1, 3, 4, 8, 9

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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