Victorian government slashes POCT forecasts

The Victorian government has revised its projections for racing and sports betting tax revenue, with a shortfall of $29 million revealed in the 2025/26 state budget.

The expected revenue from the Point Of Consumption Tax (POCT) for 2024/25 has been downgraded to $406 million, down from the $435 million that was forecast last year. The shortfall comes despite the POCT rate being increased from 10 per cent to 15 per cent at the start of the current financial year.

The increase in POCT coincided with the end of Victoria’s long-term joint venture with Tabcorp, a significant change in the wagering landscape that was anticipated to drive up tax receipts. Originally, the government had forecast an additional $158 million in revenue from racing and sports betting taxes compared to the previous financial year.

However, the newly released figures show that those expectations have not materialised, with tax returns falling $36 million short of projections, once other adjustments are factored in.

The downturn raises questions about the longer-term impact of increased POCT rates on the wagering industry, particularly as punters and operators adjust to new taxation structures and broader economic conditions.