Melbourne Cup 2025: Don’t bet on good weather

They say ‘don’t bet on the weather’ but punters on this years Melbourne Cup will be doing just that with the early weather forecast for heavy rain which is set to determine the winner of this years $10m race.

Rain is on the way for Melbourne’s famous first Tuesday in November when the Melbourne Cup is staged at Flemington, with conditions across much of Victoria likely to stay soggy after showers begin on Monday.

High cloud will build over the city on Sunday, but temperatures won’t hint at the looming shift as northerlies draw warm inland air south. A top near 30°C is expected in Melbourne, with the northwest of the state pushing into the mid-30s.

“As the new week begins, a deep trough ahead of a cold front will extend high into the atmosphere, dragging tropical moisture towards southern Australia,” Weatherzone meteorologist Jess Miskelly explains.

“This trough will supply the instability to convert the abundant available moisture into significant rainfall.”

In the cooler airmass behind the change, Melbourne is forecast to reach just 16°C on Monday and 18°C on Tuesday, making it a brisk couple of days for racegoers without adequate layers.

Rainfall totals of 20–40mm are tipped for Monday, with a further 10–20mm possible on Tuesday. The heaviest falls are most likely overnight, with a chance of showers easing by Tuesday afternoon.

For context, Melbourne has recorded 20mm or more on only three days in 2025 so far—twice in January, and again this week on Monday, October 27, which delivered the year’s heaviest daily total at 35.4mm.

All told, it shapes as a notable rain event peaking right as attention turns to the ever-unpredictable Cup Day weather in the Victorian capital.