Had Incentivise bypassed the Makybe Diva Stakes at Flemington, he would have received less weight in the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups.
As favourite for the Caulfield and Melbourne Cup, Incentivise was the horse that created the most interest ahead of the release of weights on Tuesday.
Incentivise has 55.5kg for the Caulfield Cup (2400m) on October 16 and Melbourne Cup (3200m) on November 2 and remains the $4.50 and $8 favourite respectively after his win in the Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) at Flemington on Saturday.
Racing Victoria Handicapper Greg Carpenter said it was a difficult assignment finding where Incentivise fitted into the Cups weight puzzle.
“Prior to the Makybe Diva Stakes on Saturday, there was only one performance I could look to in assessing what weight we might be giving Incentivise in the Cups this year,” Carpenter said.
As he does with a number of connections, Carpenter said he had spoken to Incentivise’s owners prior to last week’s Makybe Diva Stakes win and again on Monday before the release of weights.
Carpenter said they had pointed out the Cups weights given to Russian Camelot, Kings Will Dream, Humidor and Japanese raider Mer De Glace as having similar records to Incentivise.
“Mer De Glace won the 2019 Caulfield Cup,” Carpenter said.
“Coming to Australia he had won three Group 3 races at 2000 metres and had an international rating of 113 and we gave him 55.5kg.
“Incentivise after his win in the Makybe Diva will have an international rating of 117.”
Carpenter said Incentivise would have received 53.5kg had he not run last Saturday.
He said If Incentivise ran a neutral in the race he probably would have had 53.5kg while if he had run second or third, perhaps slightly more.
“I’m not sure what weight he would have got if he had won that race by 12 lengths, but irrespective of the margin, it was an enormously impressive win,” Carpenter said.
“Our role is not to stop a horse winning, it’s to assess the form and give others the opportunity to be competitive.
“When I look at the race, I think it heavily favours Incentivise with that weight, because if he had been weighted on potential, he would have been the topweight.”