Tomorrow’s Emirates Doncaster Mile Day looks a very tough card for punters.
Just Horse Racing’s Andrew Hawkins will be heading out to Randwick to run our innovative live blog.
He has looked at tomorrow’s races in an attempt to find you all the winners.
Please note: this has been updated at 9am on Saturday morning to reflect scratchings and the wet track.
Here is his preview:
RACE 1 – Listed Fernhill Handicap (1600m)
Hard to line up the form here with the two year olds seeing a mile for the first time. Going for one out of left field here. DARCI BE GOOD is bred to be a miler, his first up run at Kembla over 1000m was very good. Even his effort to finish three and a half lengths behind Smart Missile in the Breeders Platewas credible. Yes, it’s a big step up from 1000m to 1600m and fitness may be a query, but I reckon he can go alright! COCKY RAIDER was good behind Do You Think in the Schweppervescence, he made a big run down the centre of the track. Do You Think didn’t frank the form last week but should go okay. SATIRICAL BOY and EXCEED AND EXALT look the next best.
Race 2 – TAB Sportsbet iPhone App Handicap (1200m)
SCREEN does look hard to beat, she’s very consistent and she races very well fresh. Should be in the finish. The Queenslander GENERAL SECRETARY is in good form, MY VEGAS looks to be working into form while at her best MISS INDEPENDENT would be competitive. Outside of that, it falls away a little bit – horses that want further, horses that are out of form. Might be a no bet race.
Race 3 – Listed Keith Mackay Quality (1200m)
I couldn’t believe how unlucky STREAMA was last start. Should have gone very close to winning the Magic Night Stakes. If she gets any luck here, I reckon she just wins. AEROBATICS was the second best run in the Magic Night behind Streama and I think it was smart of Darley to hold her off for this race. Still reckon she may be six months away from being at her best though. For third, don’t know how strong her form is but CHARM’S HONOUR is unbeaten and winning form is good form. Next best HOUSTON BENEFACTOR.
Race 4 – Listed South Pacific Classic (1400m)
Actually not a bad little three year old race. Seeing as my top two selections have been scratched, let’s go with BIG STORM. He was very good first up and looks to be heading the right way for Queensland. SEA LORD was a good winner of the Darby Munro, maybe he is just a sprinter? LEVI’S CHOICE and LUCHA LIBRE may be the knockouts.
Race 5 – Listed JRA Plate (2000m)
Galizani looks under the odds here after we tipped her at $17 last start. RAINBOW STYLING was the best value bet on Golden Slipper day but he was a shade disappointing. Maybe give him another go, as he has some great form around some Group 1 performers like Linton, Precedence and Cedarberg. I’ve been on IRONSTEIN every start this campaign and he’s been very disappointing. I expected him to be winning these sorts of races. Wouldn’t be surprised if he wins but I wouldn’t be happy! GALIZANI should still go well, just couldn’t back her at the odds they are offering. NEW DAY RISING looks to have some of the best figures in the race, but I don’t like backing Fastnet Rocks at 2000m – remember Rock Classic in the Rosehill Guineas? Place chance.
Race 6 – Group 1 AJC Australian Oaks (2400m)
The 100th running of the Oaks and I’ve heard some trainers call this a vintage edition. Wouldn’t go that far at all, I think it is the best field they could have assembled in what is a rather weak year. That said, there are some beauties in the crop – a few of them are here. In the end, I couldn’t split two fillies – SHAMROCKER and DATING. I hate sitting on the fence but I’m going to back both. What more can you say about Shamrocker? She’s been absolutely amazing this autumn. And the thing is, she looks to have improvement still left in her for a great spring campaign. Meanwhile, Dating has continued to fly under the radar. Form looks very similar to Daffodil’s before her Oaks win, she has the same jockey (Hugh Bowman), she races in similar colours – could be a similar result! Very unlucky at her last two runs, and should arguably be coming here with wins at her last two starts. For third, go with ABSOLUTELY. Great run in the Australasian Oaks behind Lights of Heaven, who would be favourite if she was here (and I reckon she’s a potential Caulfield Cup favourite). Mick Kent’s brought her here, which obviously means she’s going very well. Still a maiden but looks to have great staying potential. Include. For fourth, go for a blowout in DREAMWORKER. Yeah, I know, horribly disappointing last week but Begg would only be backing her up if she was alright. Bred to get a distance. At massive odds, could be one for the multiples.
Race 7 – Group 1 Doncaster Mile (1600m)
All being equal MORE JOYOUS just wins. I’ve listened to the arguments as to why she can’t win, and I think most of them fail to take a few factors into account. People say she’ll need to be as good as Sunline – I disagree. Sunline was giving as much as 10kg to horses. More Joyous has to give 5.5kg maximum. I reckon every horse on the minimum is at a disadvantage. More Joyous is also unbeaten from four attempts at the track and from three attempts at the distance – and she’s won two Group 1s over the Randwick mile. I’d be mighty surprised if she is beaten. While LOVE CONQUERS ALL wasn’t originally in my top four, he looks to be the best wet tracker in the race. His run in the George Ryder Stakes was very good and while there is a query about him at the mile, he looks a supreme wet tracker. WALL STREET was horrible first up here but at every trip here, he’s needed a run and he’ll be much improved for the George Ryder run. Can’t see why he couldn’t pull a placing, particularly if he replicates his Emirates Stakes run. CAPTAIN SONADOR looks at good place odds. Two great runs over the Randwick mile, including an Epsom Handicap win. His lead up runs actually haven’t been that bad. Should run a bold race. Next best on a wet track looks to be ALOHA.
Race 8 – Group 1 The Galaxy (1100m)
I reckon KING PULSE deserves a Group 1 win. His runs in the Lightning and Newmarket were actually quite good, and I don’t know if any horse in this field could have gone as well – particularly any horse that is so low in the weights. Good each way bet at double figure odds. SHRAPNEL has been the best supported runner, quite fairly. His Yallambee win was good. Has promised a lot, now it is time to deliver. SWIFT ALLIANCE carried a massive weight to win very easily last start, and if he brings that form here he’ll be hard to beat. ORTENSIA was unlucky to win this race last year. I don’t think she has come back as well and I think she’s a tad overrated, but it will be interesting to see how she goes.
Race 9 – Bungalow 8 Handicap (1400m)
Talk about a tough end to the day! Don’t know where to look here…WILLY JIMMY ran his first ever placing first up at his last start – his second up record is much better. Include him. FORETELLER trialled well and after My Kingdom of Fife’s win last weekend it would be foolish to overlook him. BACCHANAL WOMAN can win, depending which one turns up, while MONTON would be favourite on his best form. The chances certainly don’t end there.
BEST BET: R7, No.1 More Joyous
NEXT BEST: R3, No. 4 Streama
BEST VALUE: R8, No. 8 King Pulse
Written by Andrew Hawkins
