It looks a Kiwi affair in the Australian Derby (2400m) at Randwick on Saturday with star New Zealand stayer Sharp N Smart looking to win the double of the New Zealand Derby/Australian Derby.
Down below is a speed map, runner preview and $100 betting strategy for the 2023 Australian Derby.
Market 💰: View the Odds for the Australian Derby
2023 Australian Derby Speed Map
Looks to be little to no speed. Suizuro was on speed in the Alister Clark so he will go forward, as will Major Beel, who was tough on speed last Saturday in the Tulloch. Pericles and Elliptical have gates to settle near the front end.
2023 Australian Derby Runner Preview:
1. Sharp N Smart: Sharp N Smart is a star and has claims to being one of the best 3YO’s in Australasia given he is a multiple Group l winner, including against the older horses. Great win in the NZ Derby, and you have to keep in mind that Ryan Elliot rode him arrogantly given he was the best horse in the race so that somewhat flattered his rivals. Think with a more patient steer, he’ll be more effective late and is clearly hard to beat.
2. Manzoice: Victoria Derby winner who is ticking along nicely. He ran in the Rosehill Guineas where he wasn’t suited by the race shape but didn’t mind the way he found the line. He did beat Sharp N Smart in the Victoria Derby so he has the runs on the board and Blinkers on for the Grand Final, there is clear intent.
3. Elliptical: Another that gets Blinkers back on. He was similar to Manzoice. Sit/Sprint wasn’t to his liking but he kept on and was solid to the line. My query with him is 2400m, but another that has the polish of a gun Grand Final stable and maps to do no work.
4. Pericles: Pericles has had the ideal grounding. He looked all over a winner in the Rosehill Guineas last time but just found the sit/sprint a bridge too far IMO, just missing out on the win when beaten a lip by Lindermann. He maps to get a perfect run in transit and in terms of brilliance, he is near top seed.
5. Williamsburg: He’s a very honest animal that is around the mark more often than not. He’ll keep whacking away, but just not sure he has the staying prowess and/or brilliance to go with some of these.
6. Andalus: He ran a closing second to Sharp N Smart in the New Zealand Derby. That form line and Zac Purton are on are two big ticks…the query is he did have the SP of $102, with the market saying he was no hope. If you trust that form, this guy has to be respected.
7. Full Of Sincerity: He was similar to Andalus. Big SP in the New Zealand Derby but ran super, and tuned up for this with the Tulloch last Saturday, where he closed off with purpose late in the piece. Tricky draw, but should be strong at the end.
8. Japanese Emperor: He’s flying this horse, but not sure he is 2400m material. Blessed in the run in the Alister Clark to run third. Off that, I can’t see him threatening at 2400m. Happy to oppose.
9. Mark Twain: Mark Twain has to be the each way bet here. Has been kept on ice with this race in mind after the NZ Derby where he was incredible in defeat, rocketing to the line from near last on the turn to run fourth to Sharp N Smart. He doesn’t need to get that far back in the run here, he can settle much closer and he looks a proper 2400m horse, whereas some of these, the jury is out.
10. Suizuro: Suizuro will jump on the bunny and give a sight I am sure. He was big odds when contesting the Alister Clark two weeks back and I thought he ran a very credible race from the front, giving a massive sight at a price and really, was only run down late by Bank Maur. He has been hit and miss in his career to date but with his racing style, he’ll give himself every chance.
11. Tapildoodledo: Good luck to connections for winning the Tulloch last Saturday, but most would agree he was a lucky winner. He’ll run the 2400m out fine…just not quickly enough.
12. Virtuous Circle: There seems to be a real love affair with this horse…is it warranted after this prep? He has been luckless, to an extent, his past two, but he looks very one paced that needs room to move. Should get that here…but I can’t have him.
13. Major Beel: Will jump on the bunny and give a sight, which was the case last Saturday in the Tulloch and was only nabbed late by Tapildoodledo. Is that the winning form race for this? I am saying no.
14. High Approach: Showed good promise in the Spring but he hasn’t come up this time in. Pass.
15. Stroke Of Luck: Can easily make a case to say he should have won the Tulloch last Saturday. He’ll have no issue with 2400m and will love getting to Randwick…not sure he has the brilliance but 2400m will be fine which won’t be the case for some of these.
16. Cheval Savant: Cheval Savant looks a progressive stayer for the Maher/Eustace camp and should eat up 2400m. Dominant maiden win two back at Stawell before being thrown in the deep end in the Alister Clark and I thought he ran a super race in defeat behind Bank Maur after getting back to near last in the run. He’ll love the rise in trip and can settle much closer in the run. Of those at a stupid price, he’s the one.
17. Domingo: Domingo is heading the right direction and is on the back up, which can be gold for this race. He ran last Saturday at Wyong where he took on an average bunch but he made them look average with a comfortable win, really hitting the line with purpose. 2400m should be fine for him…he lacks the class, but is the hard fit/in form galloper with timing.
18. Twigman: It’s been a super 12 months for Paul Shailer and is rewarded with a Derby runner here…but he won’t be troubling them.
2023 Australian Derby $100 Betting Strategy:
Siding with Mark Twain and having $20 Win/$80 Place on him.
Group l Strategy Outlay: $5350
Group l Strategy Return: $3809.50
