Group l racing in Melbourne this season wraps up this Saturday at Flemington with the Australian Cup (2000m) attracting a strong field.
Down below is a speed map, runner preview and $100 betting strategy for the 2023 Australian Cup.
Market 💰: View the Odds for the Australian Cup
2023 Australian Cup Speed Map
The GaiBott pair of Knights Order and Sir Lucan look the main speed influences. Knights Order is a lead or bust type so think he’s the leader. King Frankel will be handy near the front, likewise Saracen Knight from gate one.
2023 Australian Cup Runner Preview:
1 Cascadian: Cascadian, I think, is a moral. His run in the All Star Mile last Saturday was absolutely enormous. Albeit he was fence in the run, he did a super job from the back and was very good to the line behind Mr Brightside. He is a gun seven day back up horse. He hasn’t run a bad race when on the back up and loves the 2000m, and loves Flemington. IMO, good luck beating him.
2 Regal Power: The Bob Peters experiment with the Leek Jr stable hasn’t worked and it’ll continue. He’s no chance off a plain return.
3 Mo’Unga: I said after his trials before the first up run that Mo’Unga looked like he wants ground so a truly run 2000m here looks ideal. He ran last Saturday in the Ranvet and the run just screamed out of wanting more ground. He looked gone at the top of the straight and actually kept on to run third to dominant winner Dubai Honour. That was a sit/sprint and highly doubt that will be the case here. Dangerous.
4 Nonconformist: Nonconformist could have gone down the All Star Mile path but connections said no to the big money and want to get that Group l win. He resumed with a bang three weeks ago, spanking his rivals in the Blamey and landing decent bets at a price. He will love getting to 2000m and off the first up win, he rates quite highly as a key winning chance.
5 Emissary: Dangerous if he gets a more positive ride. He got a mile out of his ground in the Prelude but loved the way he found the line late in the piece behind Right You Are. There is potential for Shinn to push the button early and should he find a forward spot without spending petrol tickets, he’ll take beating.
6 Smokin’ Romans: Blinkers back on signals intent. Two runs back from a spell, both over the mile, a trip short of his best, so while on face value, he has been plain, this is the first time this prep he has been put into a race where he can actually win.
7 Numerian: Numerian looks to be ticking along nicely for Annabel Neasham. Market said he was ready to go when resuming in the Peter Young a few weeks ago and I thought he did a really good job when chasing the genuine speed, just feeling the pinch late when fourth to Steinem. Like the rise in trip for him and if he can land on speed without spending too many petrol tickets, he can pinch a first four spot.
8 Marocchino: I understand loyalty, but fair dinkum, Troy Turner gave this a sore back in the Prelude by going way too hard in front. He remains on, so you’d assume something similar is on the cards.
9 Right You Are: He is absolutely flying for the Maher/Eustace camp yet continues to be a decent price, which is the norm with these horses who put on a picket fence in the form guide. He loses Zahra but gets Ben Allen aboard and the horse is pretty straight forward. Hard to beat.
10 Hezashocka: To the eye, just a run in the Blamey when resuming but when you break down the splits, the run had plenty of merit to it. Gets to a more suitable trip, he maps to settle closer in the run and will be strong at the end.
11 Pounding: 2000m is the unknown with him but his run last Saturday in the All Star Mile was enormous, working home well from near last on the turn. He brings the right form into this IMO…just not sure about the trip.
12 Lunar Flare: Underrated mare this girl. Resumed in the Blamey and while she was never a winning factor, she worked home with real purpose behind Nonconformist. Might be a third up horse but if she gets a drag into the race, she’ll be strong at the end.
13 El Patroness: Oaks winner from last year and was solid in the Matron last time…but surely not here.
14 Steinem: Had residual fitness on her side when winning the Peter Young four weeks ago. Genuine mare who will have no issue at 2000m…the knock is the Peter Young form has been crap, and she is drawn wide.
15 Bank Maur: Plenty of ticker shown to win the Alister Clark last Saturday. He was there to be beaten but found plenty under pressure and was strong to the line in winning. That looks like it will be a good grounding for this assignment…does he have the class/quality?
16 Virtuous Circle: Virtuous Circle looks to be ticking along beautifully and should eat up the rise in trip. He was never a factor in the Australian Guineas but his last 200m was very good, looking like a horse that is being set for the Derby. He was favourite for the Derby in the Spring but stable cuddled him with this prep in mind. He has to rate as one of the hardest to beat.
17 Yaphet (First Emergency): He is flying this horse…just not sure why they are here with him. There are a stack of options for him at a lesser grade where he would be an utter moral. If he gains a run, he’s a knockout hope.
18 Campionessa (Second Emergency): Good Kiwi mare that is a last start Group l runner up, albeit that Group l was thin. IMO, the NZ form is crap, as a whole, and she won’t measure up.
19 Bear Story (Third Emergency): Think he has good talent but not enough to threaten these.
2023 Australian Cup $100 Betting Strategy:
Think Cascadian is a good thing. $100 Win on him.
Group l Strategy Outlay: $5050
Group l Strategy Return: $3409.50
