The 2023 Spring Carnival is fast approaching and while the numbers are down on previous years, the international contingent is there again to try and take the big three, along with key races in Sydney.
Here at Justhorseracing, we’ve put together a preview of key runners nominated across the big races and those intending to come.
Absurde
Breeding: Fastnet Rock x Incroyable
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Career Stats: 15: 4-6-2
Min/Max Distance Wins: 2000m/4023m
Career Best Win: Ebor Handicap, August 26 2023, York, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 11: 3-6-2
Wet Track Stats: 4: 1-0-0
Target Race/s: Melbourne Cup
Short Summary: Stablemate of Vauban, second stringer and just don’t think he has the quality to match it with him. But, is a definite place chance.
Key Replay: Ebor Handicap (2816m), August 26 2023, York, Good Surface
There was plenty of merit to this win given he was near the front throughout, doing work, and credit to him, he was entitled to knock up but he kept finding under Frankie to kick on and win. It was a very weak edition of the Ebor IMO and I don’t think the form will stand up.
Final Summary: I think of the Ebor as the Geelong Cup. Once upon a time, it was a great guide towards the Melbourne Cup. Now, it’s just another staying race, and I suspect the 2023 Ebor will prove that to be the case again. He’ll stay, he’ll be popular with punters…but I don’t think he has the quality to win.
Age Of Kings
Breeding: Kingman x Turret Rocks
Trainer: Chris Waller
Career Stats: 7: 2-1-1
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1207m/1408m
Career Best Win: Jersey Stakes, June 24 2023, Royal Ascot, Soft Surface
Dry Track Stats: 6: 2-0-1
Wet Track Stats: 1: 0-1-0
Target Race/s: Golden Eagle
Short Summary: Purchased with the Golden Eagle as a target. Personally, I think he’s got none.
Key Replay: Jersey Stakes (1408m), June 24 2023, Royal Ascot, Good Surface
Tough win. Hit the front early and was there to be run down but he found plenty under pressure to fend them off and win. This wasn’t a deep race on paper and the subsequent form out of it says as much.
Final Summary: I find it very interesting that connections purchased this horse for the Golden Eagle given I don’t think he’s any good. He could pick up a Listed race, potentially a Group lll with the right placement. But a Golden Eagle? I’d be stunned.
Berkshire Shadow
Breeding: Dark Angel x Angel Vision
Trainer: Ciaron Maher/David Eusatce
Career Stats: 15: 4-1-2
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1000m/1600m
Career Best Win: All Weather Mile Championship, March 11 2023, Wolverhampton, Synthetic Surface
Dry Track Stats: 14: 4-0-2
Wet Track Stats: 1: 0-1-0
Target Race/s: Autumn 2024
Short Summary: Talented animal but looks like he will be saved for the Autumn.
Key Replay: Lockinge Stakes (1600m), May 20 2023, York, Good Surface
Good merit to this run, placing behind a high class miler in Modern Games. Had a good run behind the speed and kept on in a solid effort, albeit safely held and just scrambled into third. The race was won by a world class horse, but the subsequent form out of it has been horrible.
Final Summary: His overall form is very strong, but his wins in recent times have come in moderate Synthetic races. Will be interesting to see how he goes when he eventually races in the Autumn.
Breakup
Breeding: Novellist x Little Jun
Trainer: Tatsuya Yoshioka
Career Stats: 21: 5-3-4
Min/Max Distance Wins: 2200m/2500m
Career Best Win: Copa Republica Argentina, November 6 2022, Tokyo, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 20: 4-3-4
Wet Track Stats: 1: 1-0-0
Target Race/s: Caulfield Cup/Melbourne Cup
Short Summary: When I first looked at him, I thought no. But a deeper look, and he is right in the mix.
Key Replay: Tenno Sho (3200m), April 30 2023, Kyoto, Good Surface
He is the horse in the grey silks/green cap. He got into a lovely spot from the gate and tried his guts out, staying on for fourth to a class horse, Justin Palace. Was it a deep edition of the iconic race? Probably not, but the trip, off this run, is no issue.
Final Summary: To my eye, I’d much rather back him in the Caulfield Cup than Melbourne Cup. I don’t think he’s good enough to beat the likes of Vauban, but the Caulfield Cup will be far weaker and his 2400m form/record is very good. The more I look at his replays, the more I warm to him.
Buckaroo
Breeding: Fastnet Rock x Roheryn
Trainer: Joseph O’Brien
Career Stats: 11: 3-2-2
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1609m/1676m
Career Best Win: Tetrach Stakes, May 2 2022, Curragh, Soft Surface
Dry Track Stats: 5: 1-2-1
Wet Track Stats: 6: 2-0-1
Target Race/s: King Charles/Cox Plate
Short Summary: IMO, he’s not going to threaten them in the two mentioned races.
Key Replay: Wolferton Stakes (2011m), June 20 2023, Royal Ascot, Good Surface
Solid effort in a time honoured race at Royal Ascot. Probably just found the 2000m a bridge too far but he stayed on and was more than sound in defeat to finish third, beaten two lengths. Runner up has since won a Group l in the US and the horse that ran 12th has won two Stakes races since, so the form out of it has been pretty good.
Final Summary: IMO, he’s not good enough to threaten them in the King Charles and/or Cox Plate. He’s a nice horse, good horse, and with the right placement, will win races. Just not at the top, top level.
Light Infantry Man
Breeding: Fast Company x Lights On Me
Trainer: Ciaron Maher/David Eustace
Career Stats: 12: 2-4-3
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1210m/1408m
Career Best Win: Horris Hill, October 23 2021, Newbury, Soft Surface
Dry Track Stats: 7: 1-1-2
Wet Track Stats: 5: 1-3-1
Target Race/s: King Charles/Cox Plate
Short Summary: Happy to have egg on my face…but I think he is a donkey.
Key Replay: Superior Mile (1609m), September 9 2023, Haydock Park, Good Surface
And this is a reason why I think he’s a donkey. Overall, this was a very ordinary race on paper and while the winner Chindit is pretty good, he’s no superstar and Light Infantry was comfortably held on the line. Yes, held up, but was out in time and really just ground home.
Final Summary: He will get a big jockey upgrade with Zac Purton booked but is that enough of a positive to say he can win either race mentioned…I am saying no. He’s well and truly overhyped IMO, only because he has Inspiral form. She is a top class mare, but she has comfortably held this guy.
Okita Soushi
Breeding: Galileo x Amicus
Trainer: Joseph O’Brien
Career Stats: 12: 4-2-3
Min/Max Distance Wins: 2149m/3219m
Career Best Win: Handicap, June 23 2023, Royal Ascot, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 10: 4-1-3
Wet Track Stats: 2: 0-1-0
Target Race/s: Caulfield Cup/Melbourne Cup
Short Summary: Proven weight carrier that will stay…just wants dry ground I feel.
Key Replay: Handicap (2414m), June 23 2023, Royal Ascot, Good Surface
He got a beaut ride from Ryan Moore but even allowing for that, he was quite impressive the way he put them away and was strong to the line in winning. Form out of it, overall, has been just fair, but that is usually the case with this race.
Final Summary: He stays, he can carry weight, he won’t mind a firm deck…the only knock I have on him is the quality and the form around him. It’s pretty poor. I can’t back him to threaten in either race but he won’t disgrace himself.
Romantic Warrior
Breeding: Acclamation x Folk Melody
Trainer: Danny Shum
Career Stats: 15: 10-3-0
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1200m/2000m
Career Best Win: Hong Kong International Cup, December 11 2022, Sha Tin, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 15: 10-3-0
Wet Track Stats: Untried
Target Race/s: Cox Plate
Short Summary: If the trip over is handled fine and he brings his best, he’s hard to beat.
Key Replay: Turnbull Stakes (2000m), October 7 2023, Flemington, Good Surface
On face value, he was plain, but he paraded like a skunk pre race, he did a stack of work in the run, pulled yet was still there with 250m to go, only getting the staggers late behind Gold Trip, who won like Winx.
Final Summary: He is the best Hong Kong has to offer when it comes to 2000m so it’s great to see him in Australia. Usually, I take on Hong Kong horses when they go overseas, but there is substance to his form given he has belted some high quality Japanese horses, and I thought he was far from disgraced in the Turnbull. He’s hard to beat.
Scriptwriter
Breeding: Churchill x Pivotalia
Trainer: Chris Waller
Career Stats: 13: 4-2-0
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1609m/3381m
Career Best Win: Hurdle, November 12 2022, Cheltenham, Good Surface
Dry Track Stats: 8: 3-0-0
Wet Track Stats: 5: 1-2-0
Target Race/s: Melbourne Cup
Short Summary: I reckon he’ll be a nice horse in 6-12 months when Waller gets speed into his legs.
Key Replay: Ebor Handicap (2816m), August 26 2023, York, Good Surface
Looked like for a few strides he could run top five but the last little bit, he just died on the run. In the past, the Ebor has been a great guide to the Melbourne Cup, but in recent years, it has been crap and I reckon that will be the case once again.
Final Summary: As I said earlier, I reckon Sydney Cup could be an ideal race for him. He’ll have a prep with Waller and I am sure he’ll train speed into his legs. Just no turn of foot at the moment and that seals his fate from a Melbourne Cup perspective IMO.
Valiant King
Breeding: Roaring Lion x Assembly
Trainer: Joseph O’Brien
Career Stats: 7: 1-3-1
Min/Max Distance Wins: 2011m/2011m
Career Best Win: Maiden, May 13 2023, Navan, Soft Surface
Dry Track Stats: 4: 0-1-1
Wet Track Stats: 3: 1-2-0
Target Race/s: Caulfield Cup/Melbourne Cup
Short Summary: If you like Desert Hero, then you have to like this horse.
Key Replay: Handicap (2414m), June 22 2023, Royal Ascot, Good Surface
Can make a small case to say he should have won this race. Just got held up at the wrong time before cutting back to inside ground, which wasn’t the A1 spot to be, yet he kept finding the line and drove hard late to just miss out on picking up Desert Hero.
Final Summary: He has since placed behind Vauban before a plain run in the Kilternan where the sit/sprint set up wasn’t to his liking it seems. I think he’s much better suited in a Melbourne Cup than a Caulfield Cup. 43rd in order of entry for the Melbourne Cup so will need luck to get into the field. If he does, a top ten chance.
Vauban
Breeding: Galiway x Waldfest
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Career Stats: 14: 7-3-1
Min/Max Distance Wins: 2200m/3382m
Career Best Win: Triumph Hurdle, March 18 2022, Cheltenham, Soft Surface
Dry Track Stats: 2: 1-0-0
Wet Track Stats: 12: 6-3-1
Target Race/s: Melbourne Cup
Short Summary: He only has to handle the trip over and I think he’s the winner.
Key Replay: Copper Horse Handicap (2816m), June 20 2023, Royal Ascot, Good Surface
This is the win that stamped him as a Melbourne Cup horse. Led throughout under a peach front running steer from Ryan Moore. What impressed me was his final 400m. The change up speed was very impressive and he won by a space with plenty in hand. The form out of this race has been solid with stablemate Absurde winning the Ebor.
Final Summary: Handles all conditions, he stays, he has change up speed, he is trained by a master, he’s a proven weight carrier…I really hope Betr are doing the $101 Melbourne Cup promo again because this horse would be a worse result than Deauville Legend last year. He’s #1 seed for the internationals and IMO, he’s #1 seed for the race overall.
Victoria Road
Breeding: Saxon Warrior x Tickled Pink
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Career Stats: 10: 4-2-1
Min/Max Distance Wins: 1408m/1800m
Career Best Win: Breeders Cup Juvenile, November 4 2022, Keeneland, Firm Surface
Dry Track Stats: 6: 3-2-1
Wet Track Stats: 4: 1-0-0
Target Race/s: Cox Plate
Short Summary: Very interesting runner that brings interesting form. Prefer to watch him go around.
Key Replay: Breeders Cup Juvenile (1609m), November 4 2022, Keeneland, Firm Surface
It hasn’t turned out to be a great form race but the ticker showed to win is there to see. He was in a tight spot early on in the straight but got clear and he surged hard late to get the win, with Ryan Moore lifting him when it mattered. There has been winners to come out of this race, but nothing significant.
Final Summary: He has won up to 1800m and the way he keeps finding the line, 2040m of the Cox Plate, I think, will be okay. But to me, he looks a big track horse and he doesn’t have the change up speed to handle The Valley. He can win without me.
West Wind Blows
Breeding: Teofilo x West Wind
Trainer: Simon & Ed Crisford
Career Stats: 13: 5-3-3
Min/Max Distance Wins: 2000m/2227m
Career Best Win: La Coupe, June 11 2023, Longchamp, Soft Surface
Dry Track Stats: 10: 3-3-2
Wet Track Stats: 3: 2-0-1
Target Race/s: Caulfield Cup
Short Summary: Reminds me of former stablemate Without A Fight from last year. Highly touted but no substance to his form, as a whole.
Key Replay: Turnbull Stakes (2000m), October 7 2023, Flemington, Good Surface
You have to say this run was full of merit given all the work he did in the run to land on speed yet kept fighting in the straight and was only beaten by a horse who had the suck run out of the back. The fact he held on for second was incredible.
Final Summary: IMO, he is weighted as if he is a top class stayer. Which he isn’t. He is second tier IMO, similar to that of Without A Fight when he came across last year. If he wins, I’ll be losing on the race. Not good enough IMO, even though the Turnbull run was unbelievable.
