31/8/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Rosehill, Premier’s Cup day

The quality racing continues at Rosehill this Saturday where it is San Domenico Stakes Day. The weather is overcast, the track is heavy (9) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

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1080m-1400m in the space of eight days is a little concern with 3 Girls Are Ready (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) but she’s clearly got the class to beat these. Talented filly for Joe Cleary who was a notable drifter in betting first up last Friday on the Acton track at Canberra but I thought she found the line well enough and was a definite pass mark when third to Newtown Is Coming. Fitter, has class and given her record, she isn’t badly treated at the weights.

I like the look of 17 Gunga Din (Bet Now: $13.00 TOP ODDS) for Keith Dryden. This gelding resumed over 1280m on the Acton track at Canberra and produced one of the wins of the meeting, coming from well off the speed and finished best to beat an in form galloper in Successful Day. Did win his maiden at the mile last prep so up to 1400m looks ideal, got upside and a turn of foot.

10 Fortune’s Path (Bet Now: $31.00 TOP ODDS) interests me at odds. This guy is a wet tracker who has contested Highways at his past three starts, and for the most part he has been good despite doing work out wide in the run. Stable had the more fancied Lady Demi lined up but have scratched her and instead gone with this guy, who does appear well placed and for mine is definitely value.

Not the strongest of races going around, but a wet track and likely on speed, I’ll go the way of 7 Wimlah (Bet Now: $3.90 TOP ODDS), who was okay two weeks ago on the Kenso track behind a very impressive Connemara after getting back in the run, somewhat against her pattern. Tim Clark on, he’s in form, I anticipate they’ll go forward and either lead or sit outside Helga and prove hard to run down.

5 Helga (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS) is a Les Bridge trained mare who is racing really well at the moment. She won her first two races this time in before racing over 1400m on the Kenso a fortnight back and was good in defeat behind Connemara. Little query on her at 1500m, but likely lands on speed, she has hard fitness under the belt and should give a decent enough kick.

12 The Promise (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS) is working up to a win. Thought there were good signs last Saturday over the mile at Randwick when closing off well and sticking to the task when third to Valentino Rossa. She likes a track with give in it and did bolt up on a heavy track in her last trial before resuming. Gets right down in the weights, back to mares grade, she’s likeable.

Found this to be one of the more tricky races on the card. I’ll go each way in the shape of 10 Devil’s Lair (Bet Now: $26.00 TOP ODDS). Chris Waller has figured out that this horse is a miler and not a 2000m+ horse, and the results recently at this distance range have been good. Ran off his legs but good late two back behind the in form Travancore before racing at the Warwick Farm mile again and just missing out on picking up Song And A Prayer. He’ll love a track with give in it and with good speed engaged, he will be strong late.

2 Thy Kingdom Come (Bet Now: $4.40 TOP ODDS)…fair dinkum. How did he not win two weeks ago? J Mac gave him a 12/10 ride, he hit the front, dashed clear, looked home, fav punters were cheering…then all of a sudden the rank outsider I Am Vinnie comes from nowhere and nabs him near the peg. He’s bursting to win a race…it just depends if you have deep enough pockets to keep buttering up.

I’m not sure what upside 13 Weekend Affair (Bet Now: $26.00 TOP ODDS) has got left but he’s racing well and will be thereabouts once again. Peach steer from Bossy at Rosehill last time behind The Avenger and the horse ran as well as he can really when third to the Waller galloper. Is that good enough to beat these? Given he’s got no real upside, I’m saying no, but he goes in the multiples.

The WaterBott team has 6 Ulusaba (Bet Now: $13.00 TOP ODDS) going really well at the moment. Close up fourth to Hogmanay here two back before dropping back to midweek grade at Canterbury last Wednesday and under Nash, he had the dream sit just off the speed and once shown clear air in the straight, he knuckled down strongly late and was far too good for his rivals. Confidence now up, he can run well at this level again.

He’s getting towards a list of excuses as long as a cheating spouse but there were genuine excuses for 5 Costello (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS) at Rosehill three weeks ago behind Hogmanay. He should have won but just had no clear air at any stage when having plenty up the sleeve and it was a horror watch for those that were on. Surely he goes close to beating these. Hopefully he gets better luck this time around.

4 Nahuel (Bet Now: $26.00 TOP ODDS) can win this but he’s been disappointing at his past couple. Was keen on him at this track/distance three weeks back but was disappointing in the straight behind Hogmanay. J Mac said post race that the horse could do with a set of blinkers, so the stable put them on in a trial last week and he looked to travel very well. He’s becoming hard to trust, but if he’s forgotten in the market, I could easily have something on each way.

I’m going the way of 6 Exceedance (Bet Now: $4.20). Just how good is he remains to be seen but from what I’ve seen in two career runs, I think he’s top shelf. Just one soft trial leading into this, so perhaps might be soft in condition, but hopefully he won’t be far away from gate one. Just want him to jump more clean compared to what he’s done in his career to date, and his mum was a swimmer, so the wet track should be okay.

I just can’t get 3 Bivouac (Bet Now: $1.30) as short as he is at around $1.60. Admittedly, I don’t think he beat much when resuming with a win in the Vain at Caulfield two weeks ago, but it was just the manner in which he put them away and the change up speed was that of a very good horse. Returns back to Sydney and likely sits off a good speed, so it just sets up perfectly for him to win again. Just can’t take the shorts.

Is 5 Catch Me (Bet Now: $16.00) the forgotten horse? She was one of the better two year olds early last season, winning her first two. Then after the Blue Diamond Preview win, she went backwards. Been given a really good break after the Slipper and her two trials have been good to the eye. If she runs up to what she did at the start of her career, she’s a knockout chance.

I’ll take a punt on 4 Sweet Thomas (Bet Now: $41.00), who makes his Australian debut for Matty Smith. German import who is an eight year old and on paper, brings over some classy German form lines in terms of races, but noteworthy that the last two runs, there has been 25 subsequent runs for just two placings, so that tells me the form is awful. But the trials have been outstanding. I’m banking on a change of scenery and training methods bringing out the best in him.

9 Wolfe (Bet Now: $2.70) does look a progressive horse for the WaterBott team. He was well supported in betting when winning the Prelude under a good on speed steer from an in form Tim Clark, controlling things to suit himself outside the speed and with the lightweight he was too good. I think if he’s indeed a Metropolitan/Cups horse, he’d want to be winning this. Hard to beat, but I couldn’t back him to win at the short odds.

Always on guard with these Brisbane Winter Carnival runners with residual fitness so I’ll be keeping tabs on 3 Grey Lion (Bet Now: $15.00), who is first up here, having not raced since running a game second to Sixties Groove in the Brisbane Cup, and given how well that horse trialled last week, I think that form will turn out to be good, and Grey Lion himself has trialled well.

5 Subedar (Bet Now: $2.50) looks quite a progressive animal for James Cummings who is 2/2 to start his career. Loved the way he attacked the line to win on debut over 1300m at Kembla before racing at this track/distance three weeks ago where he sat off a good speed and finished best in a tight go, but he dug in when it counted and that’s a really good sign for a horse at start two making his city debut. Confident he measures up here.

Have to give respect to the Queenslander 1 Alligator Blood (Bet Now: $5.00). He’s 3/3 to date, resuming at Doomben three weeks ago over 1200m where he was steady in betting, with punters not sure how he had come back off a so so trial, but gee he put those fears to bed with a complete spank job of his rivals. David Vandyke said this horse was Slipper class last season but instead spelled with an eye towards Spring. Keen to see how he goes.

Fascinating runner is 2 Quick Thinker (Bet Now: $8.00), a three year old for the Baker/Forsman team that is first up. This kiwi had two runs in the Autumn to kick off his career, winning a Stakes race over the mile at Ellerslie before being tipped out. The two trials back home tell me he is an out and out stayer, so 1400m might be too sharp, but I think he’s above average.

3 Mister Songman (Bet Now: $4.20) to bounce back. He was hard in the market when resuming over 1100m on the Kenso track two weeks ago where Hippo produced one of the rides of the day from the wide gate to slot into a lovely spot and though beaten by All Too Royal, it was no fault of the ride. Up to 1200m, fitter…if he’s going to be heading towards better races, has to be winning these kind of races.

7 Desert Lord (Bet Now: $3.10) looks a really progressive galloper for Team Hawkes and he could easily measure up to better races than this. Just had the one run in the Autumn, which resulted in an outstanding win over this track/distance and the stable immediately spelled him with Spring in mind. One soft trial win under the belt, but he looks an absolute beauty.

6 Beau Ideal (Bet Now: $9.00) is a really interesting runner. Former French galloper that is making his Australian debut for the James Cummings team. This bloke hasn’t raced since June 27 last year when down the track in a Listed race. Liked the way he has trialled leading in and have noticed recently that these imports, especially from France, usually run a positive race fresh.

Looks a two horse race in the last. 8 Roosevelt (Bet Now: $4.40) on top, just. He resumed at the midweeks at Canterbury where I thought he was great in defeat, copping serious heat on speed and was entitled to drop away but kept finding and was only bloused late by a swooper. Been given a freshen up, looked to trial well behind Ball Of Muscle and he loves a track with give in it.

I think the gelding operation will be the making of 9 God Of Thunder (Bet Now: $2.15). He trialled up well prior to resuming over 1000m on the Kenso track where he was given a ripping steer from Avdulla from the wide gate and did everything bar win, beaten a lip by Royal Witness. You’d like to think he’ll take really good improvement from that outing and is one of the leading chances.

13 Spanish Dream (Bet Now: $10.00) likely leads this field up and I think she’ll give them something decent to chase. Resumed at the midweeks over 1100m at Warwick Farm when leading and just feeling the pinch late when fifth to Ballistica. Has placed on heavy ground before in town and does drop 7kg from first up. If she is allowed to lead and do her own thing, she could surprise.

BEST BET: Race Five Number 6 Exceedance

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 3 Mister Songman

LONG SHOT: Race Race Three Number 10 Devil’s Lair

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine): 

Leg One: 3, 4, 5, 9

Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

Leg Three: 3

Leg Four: 8, 9

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