Early look at the 2011 Doomben 10,000

The Doomben 10,000 is underrated when you discuss major sprint races in Australia. The honour roll is a beauty. Bernborough in ’46, Bauguette in ’71, Manikato in ’79, Campaign King in ’88, and in more recent times Falvelon in ’01 and ’02, Takeover Target in ’07, Apache Cat in ’08 and ’09, and the champion mare Hot Danish won last year.

Form Guide

That list would look better with Black Caviar alongside but she has gone for a spell. So, who will etch their name into history as the winner of the Doomben 10,000? Will it be Hay List? Can the wonderful mare Beaded record a much deserved Group One win or will gun three-year-old Buffering upstage his older rivals?

With no Black Caviar in the race, Hay List is the raging $1.40 favourite and has every right to be. He is the only horse in 18 months to get within two lengths of the mighty mare. The key factor that helps the hulking sprinter is that Glyn Schofield jumps back in the saddle.

He knows the horse best and he’ll know where to put the gelding in the run. That’s no disrespect to Bossy because he has ridden the horse in two races and produced two wonderful rides, but Glyn has ridden him throughout his career since coming from Western Australia and the horse will perform big time knowing that Glyn is on top. He should win, but I wouldn’t touch the $1.40.

Who can threaten him? Well with BC out of the way, Buffering comes right into play. Trainer Robert Heathcoate told me two weeks back that he didn’t want to take on the big two (Hay List and Black Caviar) but there was no other alternative heading towards the Stradbroke. But now there is only one of the big two here. He isn’t suited at the weights and will prove awfully hard to beat in the Stradbroke, but I wouldn’t rule him out as a place prospect here.

Black Piranha showed in the BTC Cup that he has lost none of his zest for racing with a very good fifth. He is another that will be better off in the Stradbroke, but if the pace is on, look out for him. Con Karatkasanis has been very bullish about his super horse all prep and it wouldn’t shock me if he filled a place here.

No Evidence Needed always seems a grade below top class but she just keeps on running her usual honest race. She got home well to finish fourth in the BTC Cup after sitting three deep throughout. Drawn beautifully in gate three, she should get the charm run and she can handle the sting out of the ground. Put her into your extoics and watch her closely as she’ll be a leading contender for the Stradbroke/ Winter Stakes.

All Silent has been a flop in more ways than one since running in the Golden Shaheen on Dubai World Cup night last year. Has had four runs since and they have all been terrible, but the word is from the Randwick on-lookers is that the sprinter is starting to get back to his best and could cause a boilover in Saturday. If he is somewhere near his best, he would give this race an almighty shake but until he actually performs on race day again, I’m happy to watch him.

Got to feel sorry for Team Hawkes. They had a terrible Autumn, firstly with Maluckyday producing below average performances and Love Conquers All just always seeming to find one better than him. Got beat by More Joyous in the Canterbury Stakes, then was pipped on the post by Rangirandoo in the George Ryder, then ran a brave second in the Doncaster behind Sacred Choice. He has been given a 42 day freshen up, trialled well last Tuesday and he’ll be right in the mix.

If you wanted to own a race horse, you would wish it was a horse like Beaded. 19 starts for nine wins and nine placings and her only unplaced run was a fourth in the Stradbroke after sitting four wide throughout and narrowly missing out in a five horse thriller. She deserves a group one win, she is one of my favourite horses, but I’m just not sure if she’ll win here. She is going to be a major force in the Stradbroke but I am expecting her to be ultra competitive here.

The other two, Snipers Bullet and Border Rebel, just look outclassed here. Snipers Bullet was never in the race when finishing last in the BTC Cup. I think age might be catching up to the horse while Border Rebel is a very good sprinter on the rise, but WFA isn’t his go. He was solid at Scone under the massive weight but this is a bit too rich for him.

Written by Adam Page