The biggest day in Sydney racing comes around this Saturday, with The Everest (1200m) highlighting a bumper ten event program. The weather is fine, the track is soft (7) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.
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The Everest π: View the Field and Odds for The Everest
Race 1. (12:30) Big Dance Wild Card Hcp 1600m
6 Matias (Bet Now: $8.00) should be better for the first up run, which came in the Cameron at Newcastle when just off speed and tried hard but first up, condition gave way late. Tick over trial was pretty good and overall, this isn’t a deep contest.
1 Tavi Time (Bet Now: $5.50) was an eye catcher in the Cameron at Newcastle. He got back to near last in the run and while he was never a winning threat, his finale was quite good. Fitter and up in trip, can settle closer, he’s one of the leading contenders.
4 Palmetto (Bet Now: $10.00) is sneaky flying, I am convinced of that. He was trialling deluxe prior to the first up run when in need of the run in the Bill Ritchie before a total forgive at this track/distance when wide no cover. Better run in transit, he’ll run a much improved race.
Race 2. (13:05) Bisley Workwear Reginald Allen Quality (G3) 1400m
11 Lucky Kwong (Bet Now: $SP.00) would be a moral in a Provincial maiden but I think she’s a good horse for Jason Deamer. Big odds on debut at Newcastle and while she was never a winning threat, she worked home really well when third. She’ll likely spot them a start but motor late.
4 Saffron Veil (Bet Now: $15.00) is several weeks between runs since a win over 1250m at Canterbury in a maiden, sitting off speed before angling clear and finished best to score. Tick over trial was pretty good and the rise to 1400m should be fine.
8 Beyond The Reef (Bet Now: $21.00) is three weeks between runs since racing over 1200m at Kembla, getting a fair way out of her ground but really liked the way she finished her race off in defeat. Up to 1400m is ideal and if within range, is dangerous.
Race 3. (13:40) Asahi Super Dry Angst Stakes (G3) 1600m
5 The Mona Lisa (Bet Now: $5.50) has been up forever but is holding her form really well for Team Cave. Tempo was too hot for her two weeks back but that said, she was far from disgraced behind Unleeshing. She loves getting her toe in and the big tick for her is getting weight relief.
7 Polymnia (Bet Now: $13.00) is bursting to win. She ran second at this track/distance two weeks ago, working home quite strongly from off speed but just missed when second to Unleeshing. Hard fit, will be strong late, she appeals.
12 Pillow Fight (Bet Now: $SP.00) attempted to lead throughout at Rosehill last time out, giving a decent sight from the front but just felt the pinch late behind Decorum. Good racing style, she is a knockout hope here.
Race 4. (14:15) The Agency Real Estate St Leger Stakes (G3) 2600m
8 Thebudgiesmugla (Bet Now: $8.50) for me. Total forgive/forget in The Metropolitan. It was pretty much a 600m dash home and that race shape was totally against him. He wants this to be a proper staying contest and if that eventuates, he’ll take beating.
12 Bella Montagna (Bet Now: $31.00) is three weeks between runs since racing in the Colin Stephen. She tried hard from just off speed but couldn’t quite get past So You Are. Racing well, won’t mind juice in the track, she commands respect.
5 Athabascan (Bet Now: $8.00) was far from disgraced in The Metropolitan I thought. Race shape/tempo was against him but he kept finding the line and was far from disgraced. Not sure I could back him to win but is a must for exotics.
Race 5. (14:50) The Kosciuszko 1200m
Backing in a wet track to be on the cards and with that, I think 8 Considered (Bet Now: $4.40) is a great gamble at odds. She is an absolute swimmer so wetter the better for her. Hasn’t really been there to play this time in. Looks to have been clearly set for this race and with her best, she only runs well.
Class is going to carry 2 Chidiac (Bet Now: $2.00) a long way. She hasn’t raced since the Bob Charley in the Winter where she looked a tired horse and was at the end of a long prep. Spelled, trialled super, proven big time performer at this level, she appeals.
9 Lord Remlap (Bet Now: $9.00) is up to these. He was a total forgive at Rosehill last time, getting badly held up in behind in what was a messy race won by West Of Dalby. He needs room to wind up. If he gets that, he’s dangerous here.
Race 6. (15:25) Toyota Forklifts Sydney Stakes (G2) 1200m
I am red hot on 6 Grafterburners (Bet Now: $19.00). I thought his Premiere run was unbelievable behind Tempted. He was left flat footed when they sprinted but he ran through the pain barrier and surged hard late behind the star mare. Hard fit, a drop down in overall depth, he only runs well.
1 Overpass (Bet Now: $10.00) is a grand campaigner that resumes. He hasn’t raced since Royal Ascot where he did Australia proud without winning. He returns, looks to have trialled well for the return, should land on speed and take beating.
If this track dries out, gee I think 14 Generosity (Bet Now: $41.00) can run very well. Track was too shifty in the Premiere and was never really a factor. Maps to stalk the hot speed and be strong late if the track can dry out.
Race 7. (16:15) The Tab Everest (G1) 1200m
Happy to die alone on the hill when saying that if he drew well last year, 2 Jimmysstar (Bet Now: $9.50) wins The Everest. His run in defeat was just unbelievable, sitting three/four wide the trip yet still had the hide to attack the line. Off an incredible Manikato triumph, gets juice in the track…just needs a better run in transit compared to last year and I think he will run an absolute beauty.
Despite the prospect of a wet track, you do have to give enormous respect to 1 Ka Ying Rising (Bet Now: $3.90). He is the second best sprinter of all time behind Black Caviar, he is the best horse in the world currently and comes here off the back of a track record win at Sha Tin. The trial here on shifty ground…there’s no sugar coating. He was plain. Compared to what he does in Hong Kong, he was plain. If the rain misses and it’s a firm deck, he’s a genuine $1.10 chance, maybe shorter. Wet track, genuine wet track, I’d want $2+.
I think 8 Joliestar (Bet Now: $3.80) is somewhat forgotten. She was enormous in defeat first up, closing with real purpose behind Mazu, just missing. She was jogging in the trial here last week and we know Chris Waller in a Grand Final, she has to be given serious respect and is a knockout hope.
Race 8. (16:50) Silver Eagle (L) 1300m
9 Platinum Pantheon (Bet Now: $91.00)…I’m still not sure I am over the loss from him two weeks ago here. No sugar coating, Zac Lloyd slaughtered the horse and IMO he should have won comfortably. He trialled super in NZ prior, toe in the ground is fine, strong late…I think he runs a beauty.
3 Skyhook (Bet Now: $9.00) is three weeks between runs since taking out the Shannon at Rosehill, getting complete front end control and he gave nothing else a look in to win comfortably. Back in tri[ should be fine, good racing style, handles all conditions…clearly hard to beat.
12 Within The Law (Bet Now: $71.00) is first up for Bjorn Baker. Her last run was the Winx Guineas at the Sunny Coast where it was simply one run too many and she was a tired horse. Spelled, trialled well, watch betting because she can motor late.
Race 9. (17:35) King Charles III Stakes (G1) 1609m
The prospect of a wet track is a concern with 5 Autumn Glow (Bet Now: $SP.00), but I just think class gets her home. Stunning in the Winx and despite being ridden upside down (forced) in the 7 Stakes, she was just too good. I think if this was a dry track, even with Jenni, she’s unbackable odds. Jenni does add intrigue to the race, as does the wet track, but I think she’s too good.
1 Ceolwulf (Bet Now: $9.00)…my goodness he is humming, and without Autumn Glow, he’d be similar odds to her I feel. Joe Pride has got him flying and I think you can easily make a case to say he wins the Epsom if he got clear earlier. Blinkers, wet track, strong late…he runs so well.
3 Just Folk (Bet Now: $9.00) is a beauty who swims. He was enormous in defeat in the Paris Lane at Flemington last time when wide no cover throughout yet kept surging, just missing. Doubt he wins, but could run first four.
Race 10. (18:10) HKJC World Pool Hcp (Bm88) 1400m
3 Cross Tasman (Bet Now: $SP.00) appeals. He ran second three weeks ago at Rosehill, chasing strongly from off speed when second to a nice horse, Decorum. Hard fit, 1400m, home track, he’s one of the hardest to beat against these.
19 Ruination (Bet Now: $SP.00) ran third to Decorum at Rosehill three weeks back. He landed on speed and tried hard but just couldn’t quite see it through. That said, he was far from disgraced. Good racing style, he’ll be around the mark.
9 Sir Artie (Bet Now: $6.50) ran over this trip at the Gold Coast four weeks ago. He was beaten for speed and got back in the run. He was never a winning threat, but he kept chasing and was far from disgraced in defeat I thought. He’ll spot them a start but be strong late.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Six Number 6 Grafterburners
NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 8 Thebudgiesmugla
LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 9 Platinum Pantheon
Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 8
Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 9, 12
Leg Three: 1, 3
Leg Four: 3, 9, 18, 19
$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful
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