9/3/2024 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Randwick, Randwick Guineas day

Ten races will be run and won at Randwick on Saturday for Randwick Guineas Day. Weather is fine, track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

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3 Mahagoni (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has a bit on these surely? David Payne trained gelding that is three weeks between runs since racing at this track/distance when back off the speed and spotted those in front a tidy start but I really liked the way he found the line late in the piece behind Redstone Well. That is proper Saturday metro form and he now finds himself in a Midway. Great bet.

4 Mountain Guest (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to have come back in really good order and fitter, up to the mile, she’s the way I am leaning in an open Midway. She resumed over 1500m here two weeks ago where she didn’t quite get the rub of the green in the straight and had something to offer I thought behind Dr Evil. Better set up here and I think with clear air, room to move, she’s dangerous.

8 Cuban Granchico (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is racing pretty well for Team Price and has versatility re racing pattern. This gelding ran in the Dr Evil Midway from a fortnight back where he got back off the speed and kept finding the line in a solid effort behind the proven Midway performer. He can settle much closer in the run and is tough.

1 Too Darn Lizzie (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the way I am leaning but gee this is a thin race. This girl hasn’t raced since a win in the Fillies division of The Debut on Magic Millions Day at the Gold Coast when leading throughout. Good racing style it appears and the way she won there, she fought hard so I don’t see 1200m being an issue.

2 Erno’s Cube (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a nice filly for Ciaron Maher and she returns to her own sex after taking on the big boys a fortnight back in the Silver Slipper where she was far from disgraced in defeat behind Straight Charge. Back to this level, she is hard to beat if there is petrol left in the tank. Leading contender.

5 Miss Busslinger (Bet Now:  $SP.00) come here four weeks between runs for Kris Lees since winning at Doomben. She didn’t beat a great deal but the way she let down and put them away was impressive. Tick over trial was quite good and I don’t think this is an overly deep race, so I think she has to be respected.

10 Canberra Legend (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the one to beat for mine. Chris Waller trained import that resumed two weeks ago in the Parramatta Cup when wide no cover throughout and he was entitled to drop right out but he kept finding the line and his run was courageous in defeat behind More Felons. With good upside to come, he’ll take beating, hopefully with a more economical run this time around.

4 Diamil (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an improver on firmer footing. He was a beauty in returning here behind Amor Victorious before going to the Parramatta Cup where he found shifty ground and just didn’t let down, not being as dynamic. Gets back to Randwick and back on a track on the firmer side (hopefully), he’ll be around the mark.

6 Manzoice (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is ticking along okay I think. The 2022 Derby winner has had two runs back, the latest being in the Parramatta Cup two weeks back where he was near the inside and one paced when asked for the effort but he stayed on and was sound in defeat. Hard fit now, just about, and he does have class, so I wouldn’t be dismissing him.

7 Facile (Bet Now:  $SP.00) seems best suited as a short course type so 1100m here I do like. She resumed in the Light Fingers where she tried hard from near the speed but 1200m just saw her out late in the piece behind Kimochi. Back to 1100m and back a fair way in overall grade/depth, with a good racing style, she’s likeable.

2 Red Resistance (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the best horse in the race. Just a matter of where he is at. He has had a long spell after being a promising juvenile. He’s had extensive trial work without racing but his two trials this time in have been more than encouraging. He’ll jump, run, land on speed and if he runs up to his best, I think he has the brilliance.

8 Ballroom Bella (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a filly with an engine under the hood for Ryan/Alexiou. This girl trialled up really well prior to resuming over 1100m at Rosehill a fortnight back. She took on the older horses and was tucked in behind the speed and tried hard but just couldn’t quite get there when fourth to Shadows Of Love, beaten two lengths. Back to her own age and better for the run under the belt, she appeals.

6 Switzerland (Bet Now:  $SP.00), is my early pick for the Slipper. To the eye, just a win three weeks ago in the Pierro but it was the first time he has been without cover, he was ridden upside down and he found under pressure, proving quite strong in the run to the line. Off that, 1200m is no issue and for mine, he’s clearly the one to beat, especially if ridden with a sit.

5 Espionage (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the one with good upside to come and should be better for the first up run, which came a fortnight back in the Silver Slipper. Nash rode him with a sit and with that, the horse got keen in the run and despite being no match late for Straight Charge, he kept finding the line in a good return. With better racing manners, he’ll take beating.

1 Shangri La Express…(Bet Now:  $SP.00) is he being somewhat ignored? Massive win in the Spring in the Golden Gift and I thought he did more than enough in the Pierro behind Switzerland, leading and just feeling the pinch late. He is a tough bugger that will press forward and give plenty of cheek. Very dangerous if he leads and the track is playing up/in.

I am taking a slice of $51+ all in for 2 Mazu (Bet Now:  $SP.00) in the TJ Smith because if he wins this, he will stamp himself and his price will tumble in. Joe Pride is the best in Australia when it comes to a tried horse, especially a sprinter, and this guy has looked to be absolutely humming in both trials, each time closing off with real purpose under no pressure. He is a top class sprinter when right and I am confident he is here to rock and roll.

1 Private Eye (Bet Now:  $SP.00) clearly has to be respected. He was potentially heading towards the Newmarket but the stable are keeping him in Sydney for this en route to the TJ Smith. He ran an absolute blinder in the Lightning, taking it to Imperatriz, but the star Kiwi mare had enough in hand to score. Tricky gate, but with luck, he’ll look the winner at some stage.

4 Aft Cabin (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one of the more fascinating runners in the race. James Cummings trained four year old that resumes, having not raced since the Stradbroke when a mile out of his ground and did make up headway without threatening behind Think About It. He has trucked in two trials to get ready and he does have class on his side, which will carry him a long way.

1 Think About It (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a high class animal for Joe Pride that resumes. The Everest champ is being tested at at trip this prep so it will be fascinating to see how he goes. His trial work to get ready has been quite strong, with the two trials seeing him full of running and having plenty up the sleeve. He’s been set for the race and with no Imperatriz, he is clearly the one they have to beat.

I am keen on 6 Espiona (Bet Now:  $SP.00) running well and being dangerous here. She resumed in the Lightning at Flemington where she was back in the run and spotted Imperatriz a start. She was never running her down but gee her finale was excellent. Fitter and up to 1300m, I think the penny has finally dropped. Leading contender.

I think there is a place bet here in the shape of 3 Coal Crusher (Bet Now:  $SP.00). He was massive first up and then on Saturday, I just think he did too much work dragging the field up to the two leaders and off the big effort fresh, he just bottomed out late. Backing up I find interesting but he has reacted on the back up previously and he will get a much better run on speed this time, either leading on his own or stalking Malkovich, who will be gone 400m out.

3 Celestial Legend (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been a star in waiting for some time. He took the first step in the Hobartville and I am confident he can take the second step with a big win here. He was arrogant in the Hobartville. Yes, 12/10 steer by McEvoy, but even allowing for that, he made an absolute mess of them and gee he was impressive. He’ll eat up the Randwick mile, third up, hard fit…I think good luck beating him.

1 Militarize (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has the runs on the board and commands respect. He resumed against the big boys and girls in the Apollo and while he was safely held by Fangirl, he was far from disgraced in defeat the star mare and stablemate. Worked well between races last Saturday and he has been set for the race. Hard to beat.

9 Ceolwulf (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks like he will love getting to 2000m+ but I still think he’ll be more than competitive at the mile. He ran in the Hobartville where he was flat footed when the sprint went on but he kept on and was solid to/through the line in defeat behind Celestial Legend. Highly doubt he turns the tables but is a must for exotics.

Having a throw at the stumps in the shape of 5 So Dazzling (Bet Now:  $SP.00). I reckon there is a bit of intent to run well fresh here given she has had a 1000m trial followed by a 1200m trial. 1000m trial was a hitout but she looked to close off really well in the 1200m trial when a close up fourth. She’ll be strong late, likes racing at Randwick…it looks a race where you have to go wide.

1 Thalassophile (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one of the hardest to beat. Chris Waller trained mare that resumed over 1400m two weeks ago at Rosehill where she got into a decent spot just off the speed and tried hard but just lacked the quality to go with them late in the piece behind Welwal, beaten just under two lengths in a good return. Fitter and up to the mile, back to Mares grade, she’s likeable.

10 Premise (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a sneaky knockout chance at odds. John O’Shea trains this mare, who resumed behind Welwal two weeks back. She was back near last in the run and was never a winning threat but I didn’t mind the way she found the line when beaten just under five lengths. 2000m+ is when she comes into her own but the first up effort was encouraging so don’t dismiss her.

Gee I reckon the early markets completely missed 12 Eagle Nest (Bet Now:  $SP.00) for Ryan/Alexiou. She showed really good promise in the Spring before a strong fourth at Stakes level during the Brisbane Summer. Given a good break and she has looked to jog in two trials behind Remarque, who goes around as a leading chance in the Challenge. Lands on speed, set for the race I think, genuine…I have her marked just about favourite.

15 Rainbiel (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Joe Pride trained mare that commands respect. This girl was second up behind Red Card a fortnight back at Rosehill where she kept finding the line with real purpose late in a strong return behind the Godolphin mare. Hard fit and with blacktype on the cards, she is in this as a serious player IMO.

14 Powerful Peg (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an interesting runner. Kris Lees trained mare that comes here with fresh legs, having not raced since Feb 3 at Rosehill when a bit on the plain side behind Infatuation, perhaps ridden a touch too close. She does race well on the fresh side and her tick over trial was a good piece of work. I’d keep an eye on her because I do think her best is good enough to be dangerous.

BEST BET: Race Ten Number 12 Eagle Nest

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 3 Mahagoni

LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 2 Mazu

Quaddie (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 1

Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 9

Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 5, 10

Leg Four: 12

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