9/3/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Australian Cup day

It’s well and truly ‘Super Saturday’ at Flemington this Saturday with a Group l double header, supported by several cracking races on one of the premier days of the Autumn. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out four metres for the entire circuit.

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7 Mystyko (Bet Now: $6.00 PROMO ODDS)  looks a safe option. Trevor Rogers has done an outstanding job with this gelding. Won three on the bounce before racing down the straight here when on speed and fighting hard, but couldn’t hold out Intuition. Like him back to 1000m because he can roll along out in front, hopefully, and with the hard runs under the belt, he should be strong at the end.

2 Bandipur (Bet Now: $10.00 PROMO ODDS) is a James Cummings trained gelding who got a definite pass mark when resuming at Rosehill a fortnight ago, sitting back and closing off well late in an on pace dominated race won by stablemate Malahat. Good second up record and has run well down the Flemington straight before, plus getting back on top of the ground will be a big tick.

1 Demonstrate (Bet Now: $34.00 PROMO ODDS) is a handy sprinter resuming for the Williams camp. Godolphin castoff who did a good job early on under the care of the Williams stable but towards the end, the form had tapered off as the class rise increased. Been given a good break and I thought his Cranbourne trial was more than satisfactory. Proven down the straight, he could add value to exotics.

7 Greyworm (Bet Now: $2.80 PROMO ODDS) is the best horse in the race, comfortably IMO. Just hope he puts everything together. Been on the wrong leg in both runs back from a break, both at the Valley. Class took care of that first up but he stepped up in depth, did the same thing and it cost him the win behind Rox The Castle. On his home track now, hard fit, third up, he should be cherry ripe.

Is 4 Bravo Tango (Bet Now: $6.00 PROMO ODDS) finally putting it all together? Did everything wrong two back at Sandown but still managed to win impressively before going to Sale where he was ridden upside down on speed but class got him in an excellent performance out of his comfort zone. Can he sit handy here up in grade? If so, he’ll be dangerous given he has a decent finale on him.

I think back to 1400m will suit the Jason Warren trained 1 Antah (Bet Now: $6.00 PROMO ODDS). Given a sweet steer by Jason Maskiell at his past couple, winning impressively at Caulfield two back before being hailed the winner here last time but couldn’t hold out Thunder Cloud. Like him back in trip, hopefully sitting off a good speed and having last look. Definite threat here. Not a long shot, but they look the only three hopes.

The way the map looks now, you can make an each way case for 8 Valac (Bet Now: $9.50 PROMO ODDS) who could potentially get a soft lead here. He comes through the Thunder Cloud race from two weeks ago here where he just went too hard on speed and rightfully faded out of the finish but was far from disgraced given the work he did. Senior jock on now, fitter, looks the leader and could take some beating with a cheap furlong or two.

11 Hang Man (Bet Now: $4.60 PROMO ODDS) could easily bounce back. The tempo has just been clearly against him at his past two. Cost him the win two back at Sandown before going to this track/distance where they walked early and when they’re running a 33 and change for the final 600m, that’s just not his go. Hopefully for his supporters, they can roll here, so he can get his chance.

3 Exemplar (Bet Now: $7.50 PROMO ODDS) is a huge query here. Formerly with Aidan O’Brien, this bloke is now with Team Williams and has been here for a little while. Hasn’t raced since the 2017 Enterprise Stakes at Leopardstown when third, a race which has been a good reference in recent times for overseas raiders coming to Australia for the Cups. Tactic notifications and market will be the key, but if he’s right, he’ll go close.

I’ll take the punt on 1 Yulong Yuheng (Bet Now: $7.50 PROMO ODDS) first up, a former European that makes his Australian debut for Team Snowden. He does bring over some pretty good form from the UK/Ireland and strikes a winnable race for his first start down under, plus the jumpout last week, he went like an absolute jet in winning and running fast time under no pressure. Keen to see how he goes.

3 Bleu Roche (Bet Now: $7.00 PROMO ODDS) was one of a few that were backed to win the Typhoon Tracy last time at the Valley and on face value, you could say she was a flop behind Embrace Me, but was found to be lame in both hind legs, so a clear forgive. Is proven down the straight and the first up run behind Humma Humma was a beauty. She’s certainly in the game if she’s right.

5 Krone (Bet Now: $11.00 PROMO ODDS) is an interesting runner. Formerly with Darren Weir, this girl is now with Mick Price. Gee she ran some really good races during the Spring against the fillies without winning behind the top class of Amphitrite and Mystic Journey. Given a good hitout at Sandown when pushed out to win so I don’t think fitness will be an issue for her here, and she’s got a touch of class/quality.

Really like 2 Dalasan (Bet Now: $3.60) as a horse. Comes over from Adelaide for the Macdonald/Gluyas stable and he still looks a big dope, with Leon Macdonald saying as much in post race interviews after he’s won, saying he’s a big baby and he doesn’t know what he’s doing. That is the case to the eye but he’s still winning and winning impressively, savaging the line with real purpose. He’ll eat up 1400m on the big track and is a great bet.

Interested to see how 12 Really Discreet (Bet Now: $4.60) goes. Did some nice things for me on debut at Sandown when getting the win at good odds off the back of a really encouraging jumpout. She bolted in on debut and seemingly had plenty of room of improvement to come. 1400m on the big track does look ideal for her and the stable is just absolutely flying at the moment.

3 Outlandos (Bet Now: $12.00) is a son of Dissident for the Tony McEvoy stable who is going quite well at the moment. Impressive maiden winner two back at Pakenham under the lights before going to Sandown where he sat off a very slow tempo and chased hard in a driving go when beaten narrowly by La Tene. Think 1400m at Flemington suits, he’s hard fit and getting better with racing.

20 Graff (Bet Now: $9.00) for me. Happy to butter up on him again after his resumption in the Lightning, where it was a definite pass mark for mine given the tempo of the race, which probably didn’t suit him, but he was good late behind In Her Time. He’s the horse to beat from a weights perspective and he was one of the runs of the race behind Redzel in the Everest, so he’s proven against the big boys and girls. Right down down in the weights and Pike on. Cheer him home.

4 Osborne Bulls (Bet Now: $4.00), on form, is clearly the horse to beat. His run in the Lightning was unbelievable I thought given how soft the early tempo was and he was out wide, which probably wasn’t the A1 ground, yet he produced some outstanding late splits to get very close to beating In Her Time. He’s not the best sprinter in Australia…yet. That could change soon, starting here.

3 Brave Smash…(Bet Now: $20.00) apologies for those who are still recovering from the Futurity. Would he have won? It’s hard to say, but no doubt he should have been in the finish. Just a horror show if you were on. He ran so well in this race last year and looks to be going just as well leading into this year. Like the jockey change with Olly going on. He rides the straight course better than most and he’ll have a quality animal underneath, plus draws to track the key runners.

Don’t rule out 9 Kenyan Wonder (Bet Now: $6.00). Ryan Balfour trains this filly and she’s well above average. Outstanding first up win at Morphettville, sitting back near last before peeling wider and producing a brilliant finale to overhaul them on the line. Form has been franked So We Are…is the penny starting to drop? If it has, she’s right in this and is a definite winning chance.

I think the bigger track will suit the Team Pearce trained 1 Angelic Ruler (Bet Now: $2.90). The WA raider was well backed when racing in the Angus Armanasco last time and while she was a beaten favourite, I thought the effort behind Qafila still had merit to it. IMO she’ll be much better suited at Flemington compared to Caulfield and looks one of the hardest to beat in a tricky contest.

11 Victory Kingdom (Bet Now: $10.00) is a Hayes/Dabernig trained filly who did a really good job in defeat last time in the Typhoon Tracy at the Valley. She looked to take hold of Williams in front and ran along at a decent clip. Was entitled to weaken out but she kept finding, only to be bloused really by Embrace Me, who came from nowhere in an astonishing performance. Being by Animal Kingdom, up to 1400m will suit. Just needs to relax better.

7 Avilius (Bet Now: $1.80) does look the one to beat. I think only bad luck going his way will see something that’s faced him in the two runs back from a break turning the tables. He’s been dominant, particularly in the Peter Young when given a sweet steer by Bowman and he won with a fair bit of arrogance, with something in reserve. Flemington, 2000m, hard fit now, this is his GF…on at $9 in futures markets, so can the overs god be kind?

The saver has to be 2 Rekindling (Bet Now: $11.00). The 2017 Melbourne Cup winner hasn’t raced since scoring that memorable win on the first Tuesday in November. Johannes Vermeer went enormous in defeat last Saturday, so if you’re using him as a guide re being forward in condition, you’d be assuming Rekindling is around the mark, and he does have high class form next to his name.

I took a slice of $13+ for 15 Shillelagh (Bet Now: $17.00) to place in this race after the Peter Young. Caulfield just doesn’t suit her at all but despite that, I thought she closed off really well late behind Avilius. Flemington specialist getting out to a trip and remember the Mackinnon last year. You could make a good case that she goes close to winning with a clear run. Think she’ll run a beauty.

10 Naantali (Bet Now: $3.30) does look one of the safer options. She’s flying at the moment for the Maher/Eustace team. Comes through the Mannerism at Caulfield when wide no cover on speed in a moderately run race and she kept finding in a very good effort behind the talented mare Jamaican Rain. The Flemington mile looks the perfect set up for her and for mine is the one to beat.

2 Spanish Reef (Bet Now: $4.40) was a notable drifter in the market when contesting the Mannerism last time and I just think the ride was negative from a good draw. The mare usually lands on speed but they immediately opted for cover in a slowly run race and that sealed her fate. Hopefully for her supporters, they show initiative and sit on speed, where she does race best.

8 Payroll (Bet Now: $14.00) is a Richard Laming trained mare who jumped out okay at Cranbourne prior to resuming in the Mannerism where the stablemate Jamaican Rain really controlled things in front and this girl really had no hope of finishing over the top. Was well specked at odds, so someone thought she was going well. Flemington mile, fitter, she could win this without surprising.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 7 Avilius

NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 10 Naantali

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 9 Kenyan Wonder

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 3, 4, 14, 20, 21

Leg Two: 1, 2, 9, 11

Leg Three: 7

Leg Four: 10

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