Take away Derby Day and Super Saturday is the best afternoon of racing Flemington has to offer. Two $1 Million Group l’s, the Australian Cup (2000m) and the Newmarket Handicap (1200m), along with three Group ll’s, two Group lll’s and two Listed events…it nearly doesn’t get better than this Saturday.
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Race One (12:10) : TBV Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Plenty to like about the last stat performance of Ygritte (Best Odds: $2.90) in the Widden at Rosehill behind Mossfun, who came out and spanked them last week in the Silver Slipper and is a clear second pick for the Golden Slipper behind Earthquake, so for Ygritte to take ground off Mossfun suggests she is quite talented, so happy to be with her.
Big Danger: Top Sight (Best Odds: $6.50) was an impressive debut winner at Caulfield back in January, then was freshened up and ran a decent fourth to Earthquake in the Blue Diamond Prelude. Up to 1200m suits and should get the gun sit just off the tempo.
Roughie: Tahni Dancer (Best Odds: $7.00) hasn’t been seen since making her debut in the Chairmans when making up ground late to run sixth to Nayeli. At the time, that form reference was excellent but Nayeli failed in the Blue Diamond. Blinkers go on now, and she looks to have plenty of upside.
Race Two (12:45) : MSS Security Stakes 1100m Form Guide
Back Me: Son Senoras (Best Odds: $6.00) for me here. Like most, I was very impressed by his Cranbourne barrier trial win, and then he made a mess of them first up on Mornington Cup, winning by 2.5 lengths, but it could have been double that if Bossy pushed him. Looks to have a real touch of quality about him, and despite the steep class wise, I reckon he can handle it.
Big Danger: Big, big watch on Politeness (Best Odds: $6.50) first up. Looked a star early on in the Spring, then sort of faded out towards the end of the preparation. Trialled twice, and each time she has looked excellent. 1100m down the straight looks a perfect starting point for her prep, just sitting off a hot tempo and unleashing that big, booming sprint we know she has.
Roughie: Thermal Current (Best Odds: $8.50) is the clear class runner going into this race. Thought he ran really first up in the Zeditave when third to star colt Not Listenin’tome. Run before that he was less than three lengths behind Zoustar in the Coolmore at this track, so the form lies with him, and when you consider that, he gets in very well at the weights.
Race Three (13:20) : Henry Bucks Sires’ Produce Stakes 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: On face value, Marcado (Best Odds: $3.70) was outstanding in winning on debut here a few weeks back given he bombed the start, then was hunted forward to lead, kicked again when challenged and held his rivals at bay late. To do that on debut at Flemington tells me he is a horse going places, and provided he hasn’t taken too much harm from that, he’ll prove very hard to beat.
Big Danger: Boomwaa (Best Odds: $5.00) shouldn’t have run in the Lightning, but did, and was clearly outclassed before sitting wide with no cover on a hot speed and fighting on so well in the straight to run fifth to Earthquake in the Blue Diamond. 1400m is a query with him given he has had hard racing, so with a sit, he can certainly win this.
Roughie: Zululand (Best Odds: $11.00) worked to the line okay late when ninth to Earthquake in the Blue Diamond. I think he’ll make a really nice three year old, but certainly has enough quality and ability to beat this lot.
Race Four (14:00) : Schweppervescence Trophy 1600m Form Guide
Back Me: She’ll probably be the rank outsider in betting for this, but I’ll be having something each-way on Godspiel (Best Odds: $26.00). Her two runs back from a break have been excellent, albeit in far weaker company. Worked to the line strongly late at Tatura, then did much of the same at Sandown behind Sinhala. The spacious surroundings of Flemington looks perfect, as does a strong a mile, and the fact she’ll need to be held up and come with the last crack suits the patient hoop Damian Lane.
Big Danger: Bonaria (Best Odds: $3.70) won this race last year and she is on target to make it back to back thanks to her top win in the Mannerism last start, aided by a daring but successful steer from Michael Rodd, who sticks. Weight probably won’t be an issue, and she has the class.
Roughie: Two others to include are Hi Belle (Best Odds: $7.00), who is flying at the moment without winning, and should eat up the Flemington mile, as should Perth mare Bippo No Bungus, who ran really well first up, then raced a touch flat in the Mannerism. She can definitely improve.
Race Five (14:40) : Tab Kewney Stakes 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: If Solicit (Best Odds: $2.05) runs up to her dominant win in the Vanity over this track/distance last time out, she won’t get beat here. Her racing manners have improved significantly and she seems more genuine, she wants to attack the line. She is the clear best filly in the race, and only with natural improvement, she should prove too classy for this lot.
Big Danger: Marianne (Best Odds: $6.00) has loomed to win at each of her two outings this time, but hasn’t quite gone on with the job, finishing second to Spirits Dance on both occasions. No Spirits Dance here, but another beauty in Solicit. Should run well again.
Roughie: Star Fashion (Best Odds: $12.00) was one of the better maiden gallopers in Australia prior to her demolition job first up at Geelong. Time wasn’t flash, what she beat wasn’t flash, but the way she did it was impressive, and now that she has got the win under her belt, she can go right on with it.
Race Six (15:20) : Lexus Newmarket Handicap 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Going with the form runner here and that is clearly Lankan Rupee (Best Odds: $5.50), who really has come of age since being gelded and at the moment, he is probably second to Buffering as Australia’s best sprinter. Toyed with them in the Rubiton first up, then was given an absolute gem ride by Froggy and was powerful late when winning the Oakleigh Plate. I am not concerned by the fact that Newitt is on the Big Danger, because he has a wonderful association with that mare and will never get off her back. This horse is even better down the straight, which is a scary thought for his rivals.
Big Danger: Samaready (Best Odds: $4.80) didn’t look comfortable at all in the Lightning, coming off the back a fair way from home, but lengthened out beautifully late and was the blackbooker from the race. If the weather is fine, she goes awfully close to winning this if she has held her form and Newitt has been very bullish about her chances for the past fortnight.
Roughie: The Newmarket Handicap is usually won by a top galloper who can run a strong 1400m or is the class runner. The class runner who runs a powerful 1400m and should eat up the straight six is Moment Of Change (Best Odds: $13.00), another horse who left me with scrambled eggs after his courageous win in the Futurity. He does have to carry topweight, but he is rock hard fit, loves the straight course, and will be strong at the end of 1200m compared to a couple of these, who will feel the pinch late.
Race Seven (16:00) : Darley Australian Cup 2000m Form Guide
Back Me: $2.25 for Fiorente (Best Odds: $2.30) looks an absolute gift here. The reigning Melbourne Cup champ was gritty, courageous and proved what a champion he is with a determined win in the Peter Young. Gets back to his favourite track, up in distance, fitter…very hard seeing him getting beat ever again in Melbourne under WFA conditions.
Big Danger: Credit where credit is due for Shamus Award (Best Odds: $5.00), who I have bagged in two runs during the Autumn, especially last week in the Guineas, and I was left eating scrambled eggs from my face after his superb all the way win. He’ll adopt similar tactics here, will lap up the 2000m and does have the extra run under his belt unlike Fiorente.
Roughie: Foreteller (Best Odds: $9.00) is the clear knockout chance. Really liked his work first up in the Orr, then again closed off strongly late behind Fiorente in the Peter Young. He will eat up the Flemington 2000m, and if he is close enough on the turn, he is certainly good enough to win if the breaks go his way.
Race Eight (16:40) : Blamey Stakes 1600m Form Guide
Back Me: Best bet on the card for me in Sertorius (Best Odds: $2.90), who was desperately unlucky not to win the Futurity given he bombed the start badly and ran Moment Of Change down to a long neck. Extra distance, fitter, track he likes, drawn well, well in at the weights…can’t see him losing this one.
Big Danger: Plenty to like about the way Foundry (Best Odds: $4.60) really attacked the line late when making his Australian debut here a few weeks back albeit in much easier company than this. He is going towards the Cups in the Spring, so whatever he does here, he will improve on, but there certainly is another ping in the legs to be a force here.
Roughie: Former English galloper Stipulate (Best Odds: $10.00) made his Australian debut in the Emirates Stakes and was far from disgraced, beaten four lengths by Boban. Very good fresh horse who draws well and is on the minimum. Great value chance.
Race Nine (17:20) : Super Saturday Stakes 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Going to stick solid with Koonoomoo (Best Odds: $7.00), who had absolutely no luck last week here when a close up fifth to Five All after getting badly held up by the two leaders. Has to take on the boys now, but does get a beautiful weight relief, on the minimum. If she repeats her effort last week, she’ll go very close here.
Big Danger: Sistine Demon (Best Odds: $4.00) is absolutely flying at present for Andrew Noblet, with her only failure at her past six outings being last start when beaten in the last stride by Sweet As Bro in the Kilmore Cup. Coming back to 1400m at Flemington looks ideal, and maps very well.
Roughie: The United States (Best Odds: $8.00) is the real query runner here. Very hard to line up his form. He had won three of his four starts over in Europe before being purchased by Lloyd Williams in fair races, nothing special. Market moves and how he looks in the mounting yard will be the best guide.
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Best Bet: Race Eight Number 2 Sertorius (Best Odds: $2.90)
Next Best: Race Seven Number 1 Fiorente (Best Odds: $2.30)
Best Roughie: Race Four Number 9 Godspiel (Best Odds: $26.00)
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4
Leg Two: 1
Leg Three: 2, 9, 10
Leg Four: 1, 3, 7, 8, 11
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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