7/4/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Geelong, The Country Discovery day

Looks a race in two. Leaning the way of 13 Theycallmebruce (Bet Now:  $SP.00), who is second up her for Danny O’Brien after a strong win over this track/distance where she got off the speed before coming with a well timed run and gee she went through her gears like a nice horse. Good test here against some likely types, but she looks better than this level. Happy to be in her corner.

4 Karalee Rocks (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one of about 50 horses here at this meeting where you don’t know if they are here to win or is this a prep run for Warrnambool. Lindsey Smith trained mare that makes her Victorian debut after showing real promise in WA. Jumped out recently at Mildura and she went like a rocket out wide to win nicely. D Oliver on, maps ideally, she has to be respected.

5 The Javelin (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will jump on the bunny and give them something to chase. This guy has won his past two, both at Yarra Valley, with sustained speed coming to the fore each time. That said, they have been in moderate 58 races but the way he has been beating them, he has earned a crack at 64 grade and with his racing pattern, he’ll give himself every chance.

10 True Nobility (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a slight query at 1700m, but the way this race looks on paper, I think he will get three wide cover, a drag into the race and be strong at the end. Sat wide throughout at The Valley last time and battled on really well in defeat behind Yulong Patrol, beaten just under a length. He has that 1600m run under the belt, which should hold him in good stead.

4 Western Sun (Bet Now:  $SP.00) hasn’t won in three years but he is clearly knocking on the door. He was 2000m back to 1600m last time at Sandown where he tried his guts out from off the speed and surged hard late, just missing out on picking up Vittoriosa. Gets in really well after the 3kg claim and up in trip again, he rates as one of the hardest to beat.

8 Farhh Flung (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has done little wrong in a ten start career and rates as one of the key chances. He was massive from the back two starts ago at Murray Bridge before going to Ballarat where he lobbed into a beaut spot under John Allen and kept finding the line under hard riding to score. Now that he has got the win on the board, he can certainly go on with it.

10 No New Tricks (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is worth an each way ticket. He’s rising eight years of age but he is racing in really good form. He was good from a bad spot two back at Sandown before going to Bairnsdale where he again got back in the run and while he was never a threat, he did make up solid headway and produced decent enough late splits. Good speed in front, can see him sitting back and finishing off strong.

3 Empressive Enuff (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has returned in really good order. Led and battled away well fresh in a decent race at Warrnambool when second to Hooah Havana before going to Bairnsdale where he produced sustained speed from the front and gave nothing else a look in, winning by over five lengths in decent time. Has the speed to overcome the wide gate and prove hard to run down.

9 Cranc (Bet Now:  $SP.00) hasn’t won in a while but I think he has returned in pretty good order. He bounced back to positive form at Warrnambool last time when off the speed and finding the line okay late out wide without threatening when a narrow third to Brazen Brando. Gets in well at the weights and while I doubt he can win, he’s one that can pinch a first four spot.

Landed with 2 Accuse (Bet Now:  $SP.00) but not much confidence. Maher/Eustace trains this stayer, who I dare say is getting ready for a Hurdle race at Warrnambool given he had a recent trial over the jumps. That was before a run at The Valley on William Reid Night and I thought he was pretty good against the pattern behind Golden Crusader. Fitter and up in trip, he’ll be strong late and hard to hold out.

15 Mr Fabulous (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should appreciate racing back at this level. He was thrown in the deep end last time in the Alister Clark and he found the class a bit rich when down the track behind Bank Maur. He might be still thrown in the deep end here but he’s in the right stable and has good upside to come compared to most.

13 Cadbury Castle (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is likely getting ready for the 2300m race on Brierly Day at Warrnambool, a race he failed in last year when well fancied. He resumed here over 1700m where he got a fair way out of his ground and while he was never a threat, I didn’t mind the way he found the line late in the piece. Might want one more, but he does have talent and will be strong at the end.

4 Cap De Joie (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Nick Ryan trained mare that I have plenty of time for and it won’t shock me at all if she measured up against these. She ran on William Reid Night at The Valley where she looked a moral on paper and duly saluted, giving them a start and a beating in an impressive display. Has teased to be a good mare for some time and now she gets her chance to showcase it here, with blacktype on the cards after a win here you’d assume.

8 Gringotts (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a very progressive animal for the Maher/Eustace. He has won his past two, the latest coming over 1400m on the Hillside track where he got into the sweet spot behind the speed before angling into clear and letting down with a lovely turn of foot to win comfortably, clocking some of the better late splits of the meeting. Maps to do no work again, so 1700m is fine, and has that bit of quality about him.

2 Captain Britain (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has come back in really good order for Lindsey Smith and is one of the key chances. 2/2 this time in, both on the home deck at Warrnambool. Spanked them to win the maiden fresh before going to 64 grade and knuckled down strongly between runners to score. Both wins were at 1200m and the way he has been finding the line, 1700m is ideal and hard fit, he appeals.

10 Supagirl (Bet Now:  $SP.00) on top for me. GaiBott trains this former European mare, that made her Australian debut at Rosehill on Slipper Day in the Epona where she was far from disgraced in defeat behind Gin Martini, who has run well since and goes around as a chance in the Sydney Cup. Fitter and up to 2200m, back miles in grade/depth, hard to beat.

2 Deny Knowledge (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the unknown at the trip but she has the quality and racing style. Comes through a fast run Sunline on William Reid Night at The Valley and I thought did a pretty good job in defeat behind the in form Sirileo Miss. If she runs the trip out fine, she’ll be around the mark.

13 Mixmulti (Bet Now:  $SP.00) lacks the quality of a couple of these but she is one who should be fine at the trip. She ran over 2040m last time out at The Valley and was good in desert after getting a suck run in behind when second to Golden Crusader. Not sure she wins, but a first four threat.

9 Bermadez (Bet Now:  $SP.00) saves his best for when he’s produced fresh so with that in mind, I think he’s an each way get here. Four career wins have come first up and while his recent jumpout was so so, he has a good racing style that will be strong at the end and you’re getting a decent enough price to find out how well he really has come back.

11 It’sourtime… (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is he a nonny? We are about to find out here. Market said he was ready to go when racing a few weeks back at Flemington down the straight, first up, and was there to win but couldn’t get past a hard fit and seemingly in form Sessions Road, condition just giving way. He could well be a non winner but the return was good and this is a winnable race.

12 Curran (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has an awful racing pattern but he has a booming finish on him, as seen fresh down the straight at Flemington where he got a mile out of his ground but he really finished off his race with purpose behind Kallos. He’ll be quite dangerous if he’s within range on the turn.

1 Claidheamh Mor (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks the good thing on the card. Handy middle distance galloper that resumed over 1400m here where he came off the bit early but locked the way he dug in late to get the win and was strong to the line in doing so. Fitter, up in trip and with good upside to come, he’s clearly the one to beat.

5 Big Brew (Bet Now:  $SP.00) hasn’t been too bad in two runs back from a spell. He was good in defeat last start at Benalla on a very shifty track, though I will say he did find the best ground out wide to run on so perhaps a touch flattered, but the resumption was good and third up now, he should be hard fit.

9 Paint Me Red (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can fill a first four spot for Brett Scott. He ran at Yarra Valley last start and I thought he was entitled to finish a bit closer, getting held up at the wrong stage when wanting to build the revs. Not sure he can beat these, but a must for multiples, especially down in the weights.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 1 Claidheamh Mor

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 13 Theycallmebruce

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 9 Bermadez

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 4, 8

Leg Two: 2, 3, 10, 13

Leg Three: 2, 4, 9, 11, 12

Leg Four: 1

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