The Adelaide Carnival kicks into gear this Saturday at Morphettville for Manihi Classic Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out eight metres from the 1200m-Winning Post; Out five metres for the remainder.
Race 1. (12:36) Adelaide Galvanising Maiden Plate 1200m
5 Coppergate (Bet Now: $1.80) should be putting this field away. Son of Helmet who resumed over 1400m on the Parks track three weeks back where he attempted to lead all the way after being smashed in betting. He looked to be bolting in front and was all over a winner but the horse who had the sit, Tarantino, dashed clear when he got the split. I think back to 1200m should suit and he has the quality to beat these.
11 Supre (Bet Now: $7.00) is a filly on debut for the Paul Beshara team. She looked really sharp in a trial win here on Feb 22 when doing things nicely and winning in good time relative to the morning. The gate is a tricky one to overcome but off the trial, she looks above average and if she can get cover, she’s a threat.
3 Canford (Bet Now: $16.00) is the interesting runner here. He kicked off his career in the Spring with a three run prep where he was okay behind some really quality types. Did show promise and he looks to have come back well if the recent trial is any indicator. Not sure he can win, but I think he can add value to exotics.
Race 2. (13:11) Adelaide Festival Of Racing Handicap 1100m
2 Tequila Time (Bet Now: $2.15) looks the clear horse to beat. Macdonald/Gluyas train this youngster, who was smashed in betting when resuming on the Parks track a fortnight back and the punters got it spot on as he led throughout and absolutely spanked his rivals to win most impressively. Bit more depth here, but hard to ignore what he did.
7 In Heart’s Lake (Bet Now: $4.10) is a Tony McEvoy trained filly who finished runner up to Tequila Time in the race mentioned above. She sat off the speed and tried hard but the winner was heavily backed and he absolutely bolted in. The jump outs leading in were quite good and up to 1100m looks ideal for her.
4 Secret Vega (Bet Now: $8.50) is a Lloyd Kennewell trained colt who was really well backed when debuting over 1000m on the Parks track three weeks back where he sat on speed and looked to travel well throughout but just found Music Bay too sharp. The trials leading in were great and I think up to 1100m on the big track will suit.
Race 3. (13:46) Darley Handicap 1050m
1 Despatch (Bet Now: $1.75) looks a near good thing to my eye. High class three year old for the Tony McEvoy team who was backed as if unbeatable when resuming over 1000m on the Parks track three weeks ago and under Jamie Kah, it was a rather painless watch as he put them away rather comfortably. He should go on with it here and then probably win some blacktype.
2 Split Lip (Bet Now: $8.50) is a quality filly that resumes for the Will Clarken team. This girl contested some quality races during the Melbourne Spring and ran well for the most part without winning. This looks more her level. Recent trial wasn’t inspiring but more often than not, the stable get it right. Gate is the negative.
10 Sweet Snitty (Bet Now: $9.00) is a son of Snitzel for the Lloyd Kennewell team who was a notable drifter in betting when debuting over 900m at Murray Bridge where he showed great speed from the gates to lead and never got headed, leading throughout, beating Exalted Gold, who won at Oakbank on Monday so that form reads well. Well enough to win? I’d say no, but for exotics, yes.
Race 4. (14:21) Darley Handicap (64) 1200m
14 Peretti (Bet Now: $5.75) is a daughter of Hussonet that resumes for the Paul Beshara team. Had two good runs for the stable in the Summer when transferred from Tim Martin, winning first up at this track/distance before racing like a tired horse at Gawler (Metro). Resumes with no trials, but she is a big watch.
16 Gondoliera (Bet Now: $5.75) is a Nick Smart trained mare who is in career best form. Hasn’t raced since Feb 24 when heavily backed at Yarra Valley and fighting hard but just couldn’t see it out when third to Internship. Fresh at 1200m at this level looks ideal and stable finds Jamie Kah to steer. Ticks the boxes.
2 Freedom Road (Bet Now: $11.00) is a mare who is probably a touch out of her depth here but for exotics, I think she can add some value to exotics. She resumed over 1300m on the Parks track a fortnight back where she was back off the pace and tried to come on but didn’t let down as expected behind Mazurek. Goes good second up and can sprint well.
Race 5. (15:01) Fleurieu Milk Company Handicap (80) 1200m
5 Beautiful Flyer (Bet Now: $9.00) on top for me. Len Jarvis trains this mare, who was hard in the market when resuming here five weeks ago where Jamie Kah gave the mare every chance just off the pace but she just didn’t finish it off behind Mazurek, perhaps due to a lack of race fitness. Eran Boyd rides her better than any other rider and she takes over.
2 Entrancing (Bet Now: $2.45) is the best horse in the race but I think she may be too short as a betting prospect. Dug deep to win over the 1000m on the Parks track a fortnight ago but visually, it wasn’t impressive, and there is much more depth engaged here. She’s a definite winning chance on form, but for mine, I couldn’t back her.
I’ll take a punt each way on 3 Have Another Glass (Bet Now: $9.00). Quality mare that resumes for Sue Jaensch team who will be targeting some blacktype over further during the Adelaide Carnival. Had really good around this time last year. Had two runs during the Summer and was okay without setting the world on fire. She is dynamite when produced fresh and I like her at 1200m first up.
Race 6. (15:41) 13Cabs Handicap (75) 1600m
Not really a race I want to get involved in but for the sake of a tip, I’ll go with me old mate 14 Double Pockets (Bet Now: $20.00). He has that awful racing pattern of flopping out the back and setting himself an impossible task. He was there to win last time out though at Murray Bridge but the bias towards those on speed that day played against him and he whacked away for fourth. Should get a good speed here and launch late.
1 Super Haze (Bet Now: $13.00) is a Tony McEvoy trained stayer who was well backed when resuming over the 1550m on the Parks track two weeks ago and unfortunately the race turned into a sit/sprint which isn’t his go so I’m happy to forgive the first up failure. Up to the mile on the big track second up looks his go.
4 Flow Meter (Bet Now: $21.00) is an absolute beauty for the John Hickmott team. Rarely runs a bad race and he finally got another win on the board last time out in the Penola Cup when pushed right out by the Fawke Lift to get the gelding home. Back to the mile no issue and he does like racing on this track.
Race 7. (16:21) Manihi Classic 1100m
4 Whispering Brook (Bet Now: $1.70) should be putting this field away. Had his first run for the Weir camp in the Abell where she was confidently backed and she absolutely bolted in under Yendall, smashing the clock also in the process. Looks to be spot on re the Robert Sangster and back to 1100m no issue for mine.
9 Alta Stella (Bet Now: $8.50) is an interesting runner. Safe in the market when resuming at the Sandown midweeks on March 14 over 1000m where she was given a sweet steer near the speed from Meech and the horse rewarded the ride with a dominant win in a field which did have depth to it, clearly less than what she faces here, but the fact she runs here has to be respected.
3 Lord Aspen (Bet Now: $12.00) is a quality animal that resumes for the Mick Huxtable team. He is blessed with so much talent but upstairs he probably isn’t 100% despite being six years of age and having 25 starts. Thought he trialled up really well a couple of weeks back here and he looks to get a lovely sit off the pace.
Race 8. (17:01) Laelia Stakes 1600m
8 Snogging (Bet Now: $7.00) is a daughter of I Am Invincible for the Busuttin/Young team who looks a real contender for the SA Oaks. Resumed at the Sandown midweeks where she was confidently backed off impressive jump outs at Cranbourne and aided by a peach from Olly, she surged hard late to get the win. Mile second up looks perfect.
The Waterhouse/Bott stable love to target this Carnival with a three year old and they are doing so here with 5 Pandemonium (Bet Now: $4.50). She was crunched in betting last time out in the Kembla Grange Classic but just did a bit too much work on speed behind Luvaluva. Looks to get a soft-ish lead and has class/quality.
16 Sopressa (Bet Now: $9.00) did a really good job to break the maiden status last start at Kyneton given she was three wide throughout, albeit with cover. Still, she did the work in the run and was probably gassed 150m out but she kept finding and won well. Has always threatened to be a city horse. Gets her chance here.
Race 9. (17:35) UBET Handicap (64) 1800m
13 Lynch Mob (Bet Now: $9.50) gets the nod for me but it’s a race I’m not enthused about. Resumed over 1400m three weeks back on the Parks track where he got a mile back in the run but I didn’t mind the way he finished the race off behind Rowdy Richard, beaten 1.3L in a solid performance. Good second up record and up to 1800m should be ideal.
5 Lipstick Lover (Bet Now: $2.00) is a deserved favourite but gee whiz she’s short enough at near even money. In saying that, she gave them a spanking last time out over the mile at Sandown when ridden a treat just off the pace by Ethan Brown and the horse responded with an electric turn of foot. More depth here, but clearly a leading threat.
15 Think Out Loud (Bet Now: $15.00) is a daughter of So You Think who could surprise here up in trip. Hasn’t done that much in two runs this time in, but perhaps they have been over unsuitable trips where she got back and never really got involved in both runs. I think also getting onto the bigger track will suit.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Seven Number 4 Whispering Brook
NEXT BEST: Race One Number 5 Coppergate
VALUE: Race Five Number 5 Beautiful Flyer
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 4, 5, 8, 14
Leg Two: 4
Leg Three: 5, 8, 9, 16
Leg Four: 1, 5, 13, 15
$50 Investment= 62.50% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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