6/12/2014 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bet – Rosehill

The track at Rosehill last Saturday played beautifully, so here’s hoping that remains the case again this weekend when the Western Sydney track conducts another eight race card. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is heavy (8) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit. The rail is in the true position for the first time since November 1. Normally, leaders would be advantaged but with wet weather hitting Sydney this week, the track should even out.

Special Offer: $501 BONUS BET – Sportsbet

Special Offer 2: $500 BONUS BET – Ladbrokes

Special Offer 3: $750 BONUS BET – Luxbet

Race One (1:10pm) : Sire Custodians Plate 1100m: Form Guide

Back Me: I am really keen here on Invincible Dame (Best Odds: $3.60) for Sam Kavanagh. This daughter of boom sire I Am Invincible has looked very good in the trials, running second in the first trial to the talked up Waterhouse youngster Ready Already on November, where I thought Invincible Dame trialled much better. The filly then went to Rosehill on November 25 and despite doing plenty wrong, she drew away late under no pressure and won by a good margin. Not sure about the raced brigade here, and of the first starters, IMO, she is clearly the pick of them. Could be well be a sneaky Slipper prospect.
Big Danger: Voilier (Best Odds: $3.60) is on debut for Warwick Farm Gary Nickson, who is having a good little run with his horses at the moment. This son of Beneteau showed good speed to lead throughout in a barrier trial win on his home track a couple of weeks back, winning by over five lengths and running really good time for the morning, comparing favourably with the open horses in the same session. Interesting to see how he performs here against some good types.
Roughie: Skyclad (Best Odds: $13.00) has been a continual firmer in betting since the markets went up Wednesday, opening up at around $21 and now sits at around the $10 mark. His lone trial came here on November 25 when running fourth, and I thought the trial was nothing special, but he is bred to swim and is in a very good stable when it comes to two year olds.

Click here for a $501 BONUS BET on Invincible Dame to win $1.803.6

Race Two (1:45pm) : Dissident @ Newgate Farm Plate 1400m: Form Guide

Back Me: Give Good Project (Best Odds: $4.00) normal luck and he wins here IMO. He has been luckless at his past three outings, the first of those coming over 1350m here when narrowly pipped by Wine Tales, then going to Randwick and getting nabbed late by Hauraki before another wide outing at Kensington. I think he is the best of the day. He just needs luck, which he hasn’t had so far this prep.
Big Danger: Binary (Best Odds: $3.90) looked pretty smart when making a winning debut for Team Hawkes and owner Alan Bell recently at Canterbury, showing good speed to sit handy, then kick on the turn and race clear from what was a pretty solid city maiden field. Not easy stepping them straight up from the midweeks to Saturday grade, but he looks a very likely type.
Roughie: Furbish (Best Odds: $7.00) was a heavy odds on pop when resuming at Scone and duly saluted before going up north to the Gold Coast to tackle a three year old handicap. He carried 59kg there and had to come from a fair way back when second to the above average filly Miss Cover Girl. Go back to the Winter and he raced alongside the likes of Time For War and Almalad. Good enough to be really competitive here.

Click here for a $501 BONUS BET on Good Project to win $1,753.5

Race Three (2:20pm) : I Am Invincible @ Yarraman Park Handicap (80) 1500m: Form Guide

Back Me: Clear best bet on the card IMO here in Off The Rails (Best Odds: $3.80). He has been outstanding in two runs back from a break. First up he showed a dazzling turn of foot over the final 200m to win on Melbourne Cup Day at Randwick before going to the Kensington track and running an unlucky third to Skarsgard. The Big Danger finished second in the race, but Off The Rails gets the weight pull and has the fitness edge, so I am quite confident he can turn the tables, and they look the lone two winning chances.
Big Danger: The horse that finished second in that race was Surge Ahead (Best Odds: $4.40) who was first up since May. He raced wide without cover, sitting worse than midfield, and on a day where leaders were heavily suited, his effort after a long lay off was impressive. Provided he hasn’t got the second up syndrome, he’ll prove hard to beat here.
Roughie: Oh My Papa (Best Odds: $26.00) has found some really good form for Scone trainer Greg Bennett this time in, winning two of her four runs, including a win over the Tamworth mile last start when beating home Kurtley, who has since won. The mare has proven she can be competitive in town, and outside the top two tips, the race does look quite thin.

Click here for a $501 BONUS BET on Right Of Way to win $1,903.8

Race Four (2:55pm) : Goldners Horse Transport Handicap (75) 2400m: Form Guide

Back Me: Looks to be good speed here with Barge And Charge, Sir Bigglesworth, White Devon and Thunder Set all appreciating racing on the pace. Another one who can roll forward is the horse I like here, Habitual Offender (Best Odds: $4.00) but he is more versatile given he can be ridden with cover and still find his best. McDonald crawled them up in front last time at Warwick Farm and the former kiwi duly saluted, but he did show earlier on in the prep that he can sit back and run on. He won’t be too far away from the gun draw and looks the clear horse to beat.
Big Danger: Another who should appreciate a strong speed is the Godolphin stayer Auberge (Best Odds: $5.00). He was the victim of a very slow tempo two back over 1900m at Canterbury before being ridden on the speed at Warwick Farm and not attacking the line when fifth to Sir Laszlo, but in saying that, he was beaten less than a length. Cold ride here should see improvement.
Roughie: Don’t completely rule out the Scone stayer His Highness (Best Odds: $16.00). He has won his past two over 2300m at Newcastle impressively, albeit against much easier opposition than what he faces here, but there was plenty to like about the way he found the line last time out given he was last in the run and the speed of the race was muddling. He carried 57kg to win here. He now drops to 51kg, has gate one and will be running on strongly at the end of the race.

Click here for a $501 BONUS BET on Habitual Offender to win $2,004

Race Five (3:35pm) : The “HQ For Insurance” Handicap 1400m: Form Guide

Back Me: Second good thing on the program here thanks to Amovatio (Best Odds: $4.40). who was the clear blackbooker from last week. He opened quite short in betting last week but got out to really good odds of $13, so the worry that coming back to 1350m from the mile was going to bring about his undoing, but he really attacked the line late to run second to an in form mare in Commanding Wit. Cassidy back on, back up in distance and will get a good speed thanks to stablemate Black Jag and Melbourne visitor Beauty’s Beast. Gee I am confident with this horse.
Big Danger: A Villiers start is on the line for You’ll Never (Best Odds: $3.60). so you’d think that if he was going to go there, he’d want to be running a cracker here. He did that two back when overhauling subsequent winner and stakes placegetter Dothraki before getting a touch too far back when a close up fourth to Heart Testa. He will be at the back with Amovatio and running on strongly late. Only query is the weight rise from last start.
Roughie: Kaypers (Best Odds: $10.00) was caught with no cover in the Goulburn Cup last time out but stuck to the task gamely when fifth to Pythageron, beaten just over two lengths. Placed in seven of twelve runs at Rosehill, including a win, he is getting fitter and will possibly be on the back of Amovatio, having the last say.

Click here for a $501 BONUS BET on Amovatio to win $2,104.2

Race Six (4:15pm) : Horsepower Feeds & Supplements Handicap (85) 1800m: Form Guide

Back Me: Cautiously putting Saigon Tea (Best Odds: $3.50) on top. The forecast is for rain, so I am hoping it is correct, because that’s the only chance she has of winning this. She was outstanding on Oaks Day when beaten narrowly after getting a long way back in a slowly run race. She then came back to Sydney and went to Randwick-Kensington, and on face value, she was very plain behind Terai. She is a risk on top of the ground, but if the rain comes, she’s the horse to beat.
Big Danger: Medcaut (Best Odds: $2.80) produced one of the wins of the day at the infamous Kensington meeting a fortnight back. He did a bit of work to sit outside the leader before beating it off on the turn and being left exposed for the entire straight. Normally that’s difficult but this horse just bolted in and won with a leg in the air. Stable is absolutely flying and this bloke will prove a serious threat.
Roughie: Dowdstown Charlie (Best Odds: $13.00) can be a real tease, but I liked the way he attacked the line late a month back at Randwick when third to Plutorius in a race suited by those near the speed. He actually did a good job to finish as close as he did. Much like Saigon Tea, he will be doing rain dances from now until the gates open, and if mother nature is on his side, he is a threat.

Click here for a $501 BONUS BET on Saigon Tea to win $1,553.1

Race Seven (4:55pm) : International Animal Health Handicap (75) 1300m: Form Guide

Back Me: Going for some value in Poltava (Best Odds: $15.00). He had his first run for David Vandyke at Warwick Farm and wasn’t too bad when fourth to Vashka, then came here and bumped into that horse again, this time running seventh after getting held up a touch on the home turn. He is down in the weights now and comes through a really good form race, so at odds, he could surprise.
Big Danger: Vashka (Best Odds: $2.20) fought on very well to win at Warwick Farm two starts back, then came to the 1350m here a fortnight three weeks back and bolted in, aided by a great on pace ride from Blake Shinn. Form has been franked with Commanding Wit winning impressively last Saturday, so with gate one here and Shinn sticking, he ticks plenty of boxes.
Roughie: Rockford (Best Odds: $14.00) trialled really well here before going to the Gold Coast to resume where he should be forgiven. He bungled the start and got too far out of his ground in a leader dominated race. He worked home well considering, but the start was costly. He is a winner on a soft track previously and the trial was too good to dismiss.

Click here for a $501 BONUS BET on Specific Choice to win $7,515

Race Eight (5:35pm): Phillip Hughes Tribute (80) 1150m: Form Guide

Back Me: Murder Of Crows (Best Odds: $6.00) on top for me. He had a pretty solid Winter/Spring, but looked to have had enough when seventh to subsequent stakes winner Mahara at Randwick over 1400m. He has since been freshened up and did look very good in a recent trial behind tearaway winner Sweet Serendipity. That horse led and bolted in, but Murder Of Crows did look to travel strongly. Saves his best racing for when he is produced fresh and the hot speed here will be right up his alley.
Big Danger: Terra Amata (Best Odds: $11.00) took on a pretty weak field at Warwick Farm last time out when sent to the barriers as a $1.50 pop, and he didn’t let his supporters down, winning and winning quite comfortably. Has to raise it a notch here, but the form from that race has stood up very nicely with both placegetters winning at their next start.
Roughie: Forget (Best Odds: $7.00) is one of the better bred types going around at the moment being by Exceed And Excel out Of Mnemosyne. He has really put it together this prep, winning two from two impressively, including a good win last week at Canterbury when ridden a touch closer to the speed than normal. Deserves a crack at Saturday company and remains down in the weights.

Click here for a $501 BONUS BET on Murder Of Crows to win $2,505

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 6

Leg Two: 2, 4, 7, 8, 9

Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 12

Leg Four: 4, 5, 6, 10, 11, 12

$50 Investment = 27.77% of the dividend if successful.

We recommend BET365 for all Quadrella punters. BET365 guarantee the best value on all Quadrella’s as they pay out on the best tote, meaning you get the best dividend across VIC, NSW and TATTS on every meeting every day.

All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.