6/11/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Mackinnon Stakes day

Cup Week at Flemington concludes on Saturday with a Group l double header the drawcard, those two races being the Darley Sprint Classic (1200m) and Mackinnon Stakes (2000m). The weather forecast is for showers, the track is good (4) and the rail is out eight metres for the entire circuit.

Mackinnon Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Mackinnon Stakes

VRC Sprint Classic 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the VRC Sprint Classic

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1 Our Playboy (Bet Now: $8.50 TOP ODDS) for me in the opener. He just lost sight of the bunny fresh behind Apache Chase at Eagle Farm but very late was warming to the task. Fitter and up to the mile, he’ll do no work from the draw, got enormous upside…I think he will only run well here.

Market will be fascinating with 5 Hosier (Bet Now: $2.00 TOP ODDS), resuming for Rob Hickmott and Team Williams. Unbeaten in Australia in four runs, the last of those coming over 2000m here back in early August. Dodged the good races of the Spring and resumes here. Market will tell you if he’s ready.

10 Seiner’s Express (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS) has been up a little while for the Maher/Eustace camp but is racing in good form. Probably ridden a touch too warm last time out at Caulfield on the testing track and just failed to finish it off behind impressive winner Saltpeter. Like him back to Flemington and is hard to beat.

1 Warning (Bet Now: $2.80 TOP ODDS) is the class runner of the field and that will carry him a long way. He was smashed in betting late in the St Leger and some brilliance from Nash got him home in a driving finsih. Tends to save his best for Flemington, Nash sticks and is the proven stayer of this field.

The horse with the turn of foot clearly is 4 Lunar Flare (Bet Now: $4.60 TOP ODDS). Underestimated mare for Grahame Begg that was a strong, but potentially lucky, winner of the Moonee Valley Cup last time. She just beat Floating Artist, who of course ran so well in the Melbourne Cup, so the form reads well, she likes Flemington, hard fit, in form…she’s hard to beat.

2 Sound (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) is in with a shout. He ran third in the Moonee Valley Cup and closed off pretty well out wide. That run was a big tick given he is better suited on a dry track, something he likely gets here. Hasn’t won in a long time, but that last start was quite encouraging.

6 Alcyone (Bet Now: $2.35 TOP ODDS) is knocking on the door for James Cummings. Pilot error cost him the win on Thousand Guineas Day at Caulfield. Olly was asleep at the wheel and Prebble aboard eventual winner Durston went around him and that ended up being the difference. Bigger track, and with the rub of the green, he can take this out.

13 Vitruvius (Bet Now: $3.90 TOP ODDS) is a progressive animal for Paul Preusker. Pilot error from Prebble cost him two back at Ballarat. He then went to Geelong when Prebble made amends, producing an absolute peach and driving hard in the straight to win and win well. Harder here, but the way this track might play, the gate looks ideal.

Patrick Payne is very good with these benchmark stayers so giving respect to 9 Medieval Miss (Bet Now: $34.00 TOP ODDS). I thought she was excellent in defeat at the Valley last time when well back in the run but finished off quite nicely behind He’s The Reel Deel. Fitter and up to a suitable trip, she’s a first four threat.

Blinkers first time, Bowman back on…one last chance for 3 Port Louis (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS). Wide throughout and game in defeat fresh at the Valley to Minsk Moment. Then went to the Blue Sapphire and failed to fire a shot behind Extreme Warrior, seemingly run off his legs. Two big ticks I said earlier, as well as a rise to 1400m…is he a contender or pretender?

9 Jimmy The Bear (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS) is unbeaten in two career outings and commands respect. Debuted with a maiden win at Mildura. He then went to Bendigo Cup Day where he took a little while to get into his work but was strong to the line in winning. Harder here, but think he measures up.

8 Cape Breton (Bet Now: $26.00 TOP ODDS) has to be given another chance. Was backed with confidence at odds first up at Randwick but he didn’t fire a shot and was terrible behind Promise Of Success. Showed good promise as a juvenile and Waller has still sent him to Melbourne despite a first up flop.

Happy to speck 7 Our Intrigue (Bet Now: $14.00). Probably lacks the class of some of these, but she is a hard fit/in form mare that will run a strong 2000m and does run for J Mac. Be forgiving of her run last time behind Only Words. Dragged back to last in the small field, had to make a run and in a sit/sprint, she just wasn’t suited. Won’t be far away from the good draw and if she can get clear air to wind into her work, she’ll be strong at the end I’m sure.

3 Starelle (Bet Now: $10.00) is a query at 2000m but she finds a perfect race to find out. Ran in the Tesio on Cox Plate Day and didn’t disgrace herself at all I thought behind Flying Mascot in running second, with that mare running super last Saturday in the Empire Rose. Soft gate, she’ll get every chance to run the trip.

9 Vanna Girl (Bet Now: $19.00) is capable. I was on her at odds in the Tesio and her run was brave. Three and four wide no cover for the trip, she tried to make a sustained run from around the 700m but the effort just told late. Much better suited here with a soft gate to do no work and a win wouldn’t shock at all.

$1.50 all in might have been generous for 1 Nature Strip (Bet Now: $1.30). It could well be a case of how far. Superstar sprinter that made a mess of them when winning The Everest and what was so impressive is the sustained that won him the race between the 800m-200m. Loves the straight, proven performer in this race…he wins barring bad luck.

6 Bella Nipotina (Bet Now: $12.00) is a beauty for the Maher/Eustace camp. Just missed out on Group l glory in the Manikato. Had a suck run behind the speed and got clear, charging to just fail in picking up Jonker. She’s genuine and tries hard and should get another Group l placing.

3 Splintex (Bet Now: $21.00) comes here with relatively fresh legs, having not raced since the Gilgai when near the speed and battled on strongly when close up behind Kementari. Tick over trial was good, he likes the straight track and will run an honest race without winning.

I think you have to take a chance with 2 Sinawann (Bet Now: $6.00). Either he needs more time to settle in, or his form overseas is true and he’ll spank these. Former Irish galloper that makes his Australian debut and his form is elite. Last start was a narrow third to international performer Japan, two back was close up behind State Of Rest…that is A1 form. The recent jumpout looked sluggish, but I’ll bank on his form.

4 Dice Roll (Bet Now: $8.00) should be suited back to 1400m. They’ve tried him out as a miler but I think at this level and higher, 1400m is his go, as seen in the Rupert Clarke before a down the track effort in the Toorak. Should slide forward from the wide gate and can bounce back.

Patrick Payne has done a super job with 5 Justacanta (Bet Now: $8.50). On the quick back up after winning the Linlithglow last Saturday here. Aided by a dawdling tempo, he was within range to strike and surged hard the last few strides to get up and win. Already a winner at the track/distance, he commands respect.

4 Zaaki… (Bet Now: $2.30) contender or pretender time in Melbourne for him? Was just a win in the Underwood, then was really plain in the Might And Power behind Probabeel. Much like Verry Elleegant in the Cup, J Mac back on is such a huge, huge advantage. He can bounce back hard.

She’s a star 9 Colette (Bet Now: $5.50) and is hard to beat. Market binned her in the Empire Ross due to the firm deck but it underestimated her class edge and it came to the fore, helped by an absolute peach from Olly. Fitter and up to 2000m, bit of juice in the track, she’s hard to beat.

I’m really keen to see 10 Hungry Heart (Bet Now: $8.50) at 2000m. She was outstanding in the Empire Rose last Saturday, closing off with real purpose late in the piece behind Colette. She has raced all prep like she wants further, which she gets here, and for mine is a definite winning chance.

4 Destination (Bet Now: $6.00) for me in the get out. The big gear change for horses was Blinkers first time, then it was J Kah first time. Now it’s either J Mac first time or J Mac back on. He is riding this horse for the first time and I just think he’s so well placed. Forgive and forget the last start effort at the Valley when pulling up lame, having clear excuses. Has trialled since and looked great. His best will see him go close.

11 Yulong Defence (Bet Now: $9.50) has done little wrong in two runs back from a spell for Peter Moody. Really caught the eye fresh at Mornington behind Starry Legend before going to Moe Cup Day where he produced a big finale from the back to get up in the last couple of strides. Harder here, but stable should always be respected when they come to town.

I’ve always had time for (Bet Now: $26.00) 10 The Last Napoleon and would not shock me at all if he won this. I was on him at big odds last start in a 955m at the Valley and he did his usual thing. He sat back, probing for runs, got clear late and savaged the line. I think the wide draw is perfect. He’ll sit back, get plenty of cover and if the breaks go his way, he can win.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 4 Zaaki

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 1 Warning

LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 3 Port Louis

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1

Leg Two: 2, 4, 5, 6, 11

Leg Three: 4

Leg Four: 4, 10, 11, 14

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