6/10/2018 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Turnbull Stakes day

The Turnbull Stakes (2000m) and possibly the last ‘Headquarters’ will see Winx highlights a fab card of racing at Flemington on Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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7 The Astrologist (Bet Now: $6.00 FAT ODDS) for me. Tony McEvoy trains this colt, who I thought trialled very well in behind them at Cranbourne before trialling down the straight at Flemington, winning his respective jump out in good time under a hold, with seemingly plenty to give. Has had the experience down the straight, which is always a big tick for these early 2YO races.

6 Sun City (Bet Now: $5.25 FAT ODDS) is a son of Zoustar for Tony McEvoy. He was a real eye catcher in a Cranbourne trial before having a jumpout down the Flemington straight where he was inside horses and probably not comfortable there, but responded under riding and was sound. Hopefully that experience will see him better off for this assignment.

5 Mercury (Bet Now: $10.00 FAT ODDS) is a son of Brazen Beau for the James Cummings stable. He had a recent jump out down the straight and looked a bit raw/new to the caper, finishing last but the way he closed off very late and through the line was encouraging. Has gate one, so should have the rail to guide him, which is important for these juveniles.

#SF has been prominent so far this Melbourne Spring and I think it can continue here via 4 Ranier (Bet Now: $3.50 FAT ODDS) for James Cummings. Has placed in each of his three runs this time in, the latest over 1400m at Warwick Farm when beaten narrowly by Nakeeta Jane, who went within a lip of winning the Flight last Saturday. That reads very well for this and first up he pushed Miss Fabulass. Got the right form.

I like 3 Wild Planet (Bet Now: $5.50 FAT ODDS) as a horse. Returned as a gelding first up over 1200m at Ballarat where he was heavily backed and after jumping well, he got the lead and it was pretty painless from that point on. Field looked to have depth to it but he did it quite impressively and the 1400m here should be no issue.

1 Khulaasa (Bet Now: $19.00 FAT ODDS) looks the one at silly odds. She comes through the Atlantic Jewel at the Valley where she didn’t have much luck in the straight behind Thrillster, who ran a beauty behind Smart Melody on Sunday. That form looks quite good and I think third up at 1400m on the bigger track, I think she’s a big improver.

Happy to take a chance on 7 Sir John Lavery (Bet Now: $8.00 FAT ODDS), a former Aidan O’Brien galloper making his Australian debut for Team Williams. Has only had the eight career starts, but is a two time winner, including a seven length win over Haripour. He also has raced behind the likes of Best Solution and Ribchester, which is A1 form for this. Just want a market push.

Want to give 4 Plein Ciel (Bet Now: $5.50 FAT ODDS) another look. He was well fancied last time in the Cameron at Newcastle but for mine just got too far back and was never really in the hunt in a race won by New Tipperary. I think it also confirmed that perhaps beyond 1400m sees him out so back to this trip off a good tempo, he could easily launch late.

2 Sovereign Nation (Bet Now: $8.00 FAT ODDS) is a Hayes/Dabernig trained gelding who had specking at longer odds when resuming in the Sir Rupert Clarke and I thought he ran quite well in defeat behind Jungle Cat, chasing solidly late and running decent enough late splits. Very good record at Flemington and has to be respected.

The horse I want to back each way is 1 Not A Single Cent (Bet Now: $26.00 FAT ODDS). He’s got the class to beat these but on face value, he hasn’t done much this time in. That’s a tad misleading. First up in the McNeil, it was an on pace dominated affair won by Native Soldier, then in the Exford, he was back and wide throughout. Getting out to a more ideal trip now and the depth is nowhere near as strong. He’s a definite contender.

5 Savoie (Bet Now: $3.20 FAT ODDS) looks the one to beat on current form. He won the Derby Trial here last Wednesday and what impressed me is the way he put them away, running clear late and running to the line and through it with purpose, like a real Derby prospect. Bit more depth this time around but have to like the way he’s going about it.

2 Extra Brut (Bet Now: $6.00 FAT ODDS) looks the one on the up for Weir. Sat off a moderate tempo last time over the Caulfield mile which is why Allen got going on the turn to build the revs and the horse just kept finding to get the win, and clocked the best splits of the race. He’ll eat up the extra furlong and bigger track is only a further tick I would have thought.

This could well be the last time Flemington sees 2 Winx (Bet Now: $1.16) and what a sight it will be, like in the race last year when she made them look like camels. The depth this time around looks much stronger but if anything, she looks to be getting better. The superlatives for her have been used over and over. You can’t say anymore. Just sit back, watch and enjoy more history being made by this mare.

4 King’s Will Dream (Bet Now: $12.00) is the fascinating runner from a Caulfield Cup perspective. First two runs were outstanding before heading to the Makybe Diva and to be honest, I thought he was a touch disappointing behind Grunt. He was there to explode and win, but Grunt had his measure, holding him comfortably. That leaves me with doubt in my mind, but I want to give him a chance out to an ideal trip now.

10 Youngstar (Bet Now: $31.00) looks to be ticking over beautifully for the Caulfield Cup and this should clean out the cobwebs. Thought she should have won the Shannon last time had it not been for a poor choice of tactics by McEvoy, staying inside instead of sitting on the back of Noire and peeling. Very keen to see her at this trip on a big track.

Happy to butter up on 10 Eduardo (Bet Now: $10.00). Was quite keen on him when he resumed at Caulfield a couple of weeks back over 1100m and I thought he was one of the runs of the day when copping serious heat on speed yet fending them all off bar Spending To Win. If that hasn’t busted him, I think he’ll take some beating here.

1 Dothraki (Bet Now: $7.00) has got the tag as a bit of a non winner but what he does have is a fab record down the Flemington straight. That continued first up in the Bobbie Lewis when proving too good for them, and that form has been solid with Kemono running a narrow second in the Testa Rossa. He has an even better second up record so he’s likeable.

If the proper 8 Quilista (Bet Now: $10.00) turned up, she’d just about be winning. Thought her resumption behind Faatinah in the Carlyon was a beauty before going to the McEwen where she was run off her legs and didn’t come into the race at all behind Nature Strip. Is a winner down the straight. Hopefully she brings her best.

1 Avilius (Bet Now: $2.05) likely wins the race if he turns up with his Sydney form but gee he’s short enough. Kingston Town win was outstanding the way he let down from the back and that form held up in the Metropolitan. Gotta rise to 58.5kg now at this trip against some class types, first look in Melbourne…there are negatives. The positives are there, including one start beyond 2000m for a second to Cracksman.

11 Harrison (Bet Now: $10.00) looks a touch of overs. Team Williams have this bloke going well and I like he is on the quick back up. Ran in the Ansett Classic last Saturday at Mornington and was outstanding in defeat I thought behind the above average galloper Haripour. Getting hard fit now, should be on speed and he’ll give a sight I’m sure.

13 Chequered Flag (Bet Now: $41.00) could be a real blow out at huge odds. Solid resumption here behind Furrion before racing in the JRA Cup last Friday night where he got shuffled back to near and lost all hope from the home turn onwards, but did make up good ground late when clear. Doubt he wins, but I’d definitely chuck him in exotics.

I’ll believe what I see with 15 Very Elleegant (Bet Now: $4.00). Former Kiwi filly making her Australian debut for the Darren Weir stable. Looked like an absolute jet when winning her last two starts before coming across. The negatives are firstly, the times she has been running have been slow relative to the respective meetings and secondly, the form out of both of the wins has been ordinary. But visually, she looks spectacular.

5 Amphitrite (Bet Now: $3.40) is a progressive filly for Darren Weir who has won 2/2 this time in. Resumed with an impressive maiden win at Sale before racing over 1400m here last Wednesday where she wasn’t overly impressive visually but it was tradesman like, looking a filly wanting further, which she gets here, plus upside.

10 Oregon Dreamer (Bet Now: $26.00) is a daughter of Cape Bianco for the Busuttin/Young stable who won like a star two back to break the maiden status at Kilmore before racing in the Oaks Trial here where she was wide all the way but stuck on well in defeat behind Greysful Glamour. Not sure she can win, but she can add value to multiples.

9 Savatiano (Bet Now: $3.20) looks to get run of the race stuff here and should prove hard to hold out. Brilliant first up winner of the Mona Lisa before going to the Tibbie at Newcastle where she just did too much work on speed and gave the eventual winner Princess Posh the ideal drag up. Form out of both of those races has been strong and this time around she should get a lovely sit off Bella Martini/Shoko.

13 Platinum Angel (Bet Now: $7.50) is a beauty for Darren Weir and has to be highly respected here. Was somewhat unwanted in betting when resuming in the How Now but I loved the way she let down out wide, just missing out on picking up Winter Bride. She is a second up winner and I think up to 1400m is ideal.

If she’s right and the track plays fairly, 1 Aloisia (Bet Now: $23.00) will take some beating surely. High class mare for the Maher/Eustace team who resumes here with an eye towards the Myer Classic being her GF. It was a very frustrating Autumn/Winter prep for her, with her racing pattern letting her down badly. Been given a couple of trials for her return, so I don’t think fitness will be an issue. Hopefully the track plays fair.

BEST BET: Race Two Number 4 Ranier

NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 9 Savatiano

LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 1 Not A Single Cent

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 4, 8, 10

Leg Two: 1, 10, 11, 13

Leg Three: 5, 9, 10, 13, 15

Leg Four: 1, 9, 13

$50 Investment= 20.83% of the dividend if successful

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