6/1/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Cranbourne

This is just a nothing race and really, 1 Calvi (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should win this by a space. He is a one batter whereas the rest of these are no batters. Ran on Boxing Day at Geelong and was given every chance by Kersley. Just couldn’t finish it off when when third. This is a significant drop in depth for him and although leave me out of $1.20, he is clearly the one to beat.

8 Twinkeldust (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is second pick, but a distant second pick. Didn’t do a bad job two back over 2400m at Bendigo before going to 1950m at Yarra Valley where she couldn’t dash when asked, finishing down the track. Off the Bendigo run, she is clear top seed if Calvi is off his game, though it is highly unlikely. She should finish second, top three at worst.

The rest of them…just waddle your finger. 4 Siding (Bet Now:  $SP.00) ran over 2000m last Wednesday at Mornington where he was back last in an absolute sit/sprint and was just never a hope the way the race panned out behind Toronova. I think the 2520m will be okay for him and I suspect he will be strong late. Highly doubt he wins, but a must for exotics.

Chiming into a Busuttin/Young first starter is fraught with danger, but 10 Skepticism (Bet Now:  $SP.00) does look a really good mover. She is on debut and her recent jumpout win here was a lovely piece of work. Near the speed throughout and was absolutely trucking in the run, going on to win under a hold with seemingly plenty in hand. If there is an engine under the hood, I think she’ll be winning.

8 Romanova (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been accepted/scratched a few times since the debut so hopefully she runs here. Debut came at The Valley on December 9 when near the speed throughout and battled on pretty well in defeat when third to Li’l Wonder. She was kept quite safe in betting that time and gets J Kah to steer, so she has a bit in her corner to run well and is a key threat.

5 Box Of Crackers (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a knockout hope for the Price/Kent stable. Game second over 1300m here on debut before going to Geelong when wide no cover on speed and that early burn just told late behind Tolpuddle. Should get a much better run in transit this time around and off the debut effort, she’s a first four contender for sure in a race lacking serious overall depth.

9 Queen Of Tuscany (Bet Now:  $SP.00) on top but not really a race I want to get involved. Daughter of Fiorente for the Griffiths/De Kock camp and I think on breeding, she will love the rise to 1400m. Ran over 1200m here last Thursday when ridden cold and I loved the way she found the line late when second to dominant winner Benedetta, clocking some of the best late splits of the meeting. Hard to beat I’d suggest, especially from the gate.

12 Triumphant Miss (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one to watch from a market perspective. She is a Peter Moody trained filly on debut that jumped out at Pakenham on the Synthetic when back last before being presented widest and under riding, she made up good ground when third. Like that she debuts at 1400m because she does look a staying filly but I reckon she has the quality to get away with this.

1 Ahrkaye (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an interesting runner. Michelle Murray trains this daughter of Ready For Victory and I think her recent jumpout win on the home deck at Sale was more than encouraging in her second prep to get ready for start one. Not sure she has the talent to beat the top two, but outside them, it’s a thin race so she can pinch a first four spot.

9 Ivan’s Hero (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks the second good thing on the program. Chris Waller trains this three year old, who returns to racing as a gelding. He had a two run Winter prep to start his career, running well each time, the second run being behind Aft Cabin, a high quality animal of the future. His jumpout work has been pretty sharp to the eye and barring bad luck, he has a bit on these.

8 Brand New (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Tivaci three year old for Peter Moody that is on debut. He is bred to appreciate a bit further but I do like that he debuts at 1400m, telling me that this isn’t a waste of a run. He’s had a couple of jumpouts this time in to get ready for start one and each time he has looked like he has got talent. Whether he’s good enough to beat Ivan’s Hero is another matter but is a threat regardless.

Staying at 1400m I hate for 1 El Amigos (Bet Now:  $SP.00) but I think he has returned well. Resumed at the trip at Werribee where he took a bit of riding to get going but he was building the revs nicely, likely going to run a place, but then got chopped out, lost all momentum and had to settle for a fourth. If this was 1600m, I’d be with him, and I reckon he’ll win a maiden this prep. Doubt it’s here, but a first four threat.

Hopefully for sustained speed to come to the fore via 1 Young Liam (Bet Now:  $SP.00). He has gone like a busted this time in but he is a horse who loves to dominate from the front and that hasn’t eventuated this time in. I think it will happen here. He looks like he will lead for fun and with control, potentially pinching a cheap furlong, he’s going to take running down.

5 San Telmos Fire (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a mare that is capable with her best. Clinton McDonald trained mare that ran over 1000m at Mornington last Wednesday where they rode her cold and while she was never a threat, I liked the way she found the line late in the piece when fourth to Jillette, clocking good late splits. Good speed in front, she’ll get her chance to launch at these late.

4 Eclipse Solar (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Cliff Brown trained veteran that resumes. He hasn’t raced since August 8 when winning on the Synthetic at Pakenham, ending a frustrating prep on a winning note. Just one soft 750m jumpout to get ready, so that tells me he probably needs the run but this stable can get them ready fresh, and the market will know, so watch what it does.

Not much of a race but landing each way with 7 Muselet (Bet Now:  $SP.00). First run at the trip came last start at Werribee where they rode her with a sit and she found the line quite well late in the piece when third to a pretty tough stayer, Adonis Kick. I like that they rode her with a sit last time because she does seem more effective when that is her pattern. Each way for me here.

5 Riverina Cyclone (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one of the hardest to beat. Matt Laurie trained mare that put together a couple of sharp wins on the bounce before going to The Valley where she had a suck run behind the speed and battled on okay in a funny run race behind Uniquely. 1/1 at the track and drops a fair bit in depth here. One of the hardest to beat.

1 Motamayiz (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has the runs on the board to give this a shake. Last couple of runs have come at The Valley, winning there two back under a peach from Olly before racing there again two weeks back where he got a fair way back in the run and was okay late without threatening behind Silver Tycoon. Depth here is nowhere near as strong and will be hard to beat if he’s within range on the turn.

6 Immortal Spirit (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a big price to give it another chance. Game second at The Valley two back before going to 1400m here where he was found to have had a poor post race recovery, and that was after being smashed in betting. He’s got the talent to put a race like this away and I do think coming slightly back in trip can see him prove hard to beat in what is a moderate Class One.

1 Margie’s Boy (Bet Now:  $SP.00) deserves another look. Peter Gelagotis trained four year old that was a sharp debut winner at Bairnsdale before going here where he had zero luck in the straight when seemingly having plenty to offer and could easily make a case that he goes close to winning with clear air. Both runs have come at 1000m and on breeding, he should eat up 1300m. Hard to beat.

5 Founex (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is fourth up from a break and should be at peak fitness. He ran over 1200m at Yarra Valley last time out where he was near the speed and fought on pretty well in defeat behind Too Vienesse, just getting a stitch. That is the query with 1300m here but if he lands on speed and gets a cheap furlong or two, he’ll take catching I’d suggest.

3 Colombe D’Or (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks a good thing in the get out to my eye. Maher/Eustace trained mare that resumes, having not raced since June 5 at Geelong when a sharp debut winner on wet ground. Been given a good break and although she ran sixth in her latest jumpout, she looked to be trucking and had plenty in hand. I think if she runs up to what is potentially there, she’ll be too good for this lot.

5 Madam Dubai (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Phillip Stokes trained mare that resumes. She had a two run prep in the Winter to start her career, winning with style on debut at Moe before going to Sandown where she got back and made up headway without threatening behind Micholetti. Couple of Pakenham jumpouts have been strong, she lands in a plum spot from the gate and first up at 1400m tells me there is intent.

1 Rutherford (Bet Now:  $SP.00) gets the Blinkers back on and her best is good enough to be dangerous. She resumed over 1300m at Sandown where she paraded like she would need the run and that’s how it panned out when down the track behind an in form mare, Forbidden City. Blinkers back on and back a fair way in overall depth, I think she can run a much improved race.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 3 Colombe D’Or

NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 9 Ivan’s Hero

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 6 Immortal Spirit

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: Field

Leg Two: 1, 2, 5, 7

Leg Three: 1, 4, 5, 6, 7

Leg Four: 3

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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