A monster ten race program has been set down for Flemington this Saturday, with the first to get away at 11.40am. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (11:40) VRC Members Pavilion Handicap 1000m
4 Indian Thunder (Bet Now: $4.80) is a smart type that resumes for the Weir camp. Only raced twice during the Autumn, winning a Stakes race in Adelaide during the Carnival, but was pretty much doing it all on raw ability. Looks to have come on from that, improved with the prep under the belt, and I’m keen to see what he does here.
3 Cao Cao (Bet Now: $4.20) is an above average three year old resuming for the Mick Price yard. This youngster was one of the best in the Spring as a two year old but the wheels fell off in the Autumn in the Blue Diamond Series. He is much better than that, and jump outs suggest he has come back well.
2 Wait For No One (Bet Now: $5.50) is a talented three year old for the Hayes/Dabernig team that is first up here. He performed really well right through the Autumn, including the Blue Diamond Series. Ended the prep with a down the track effort at Bendigo (Metro). Jump outs have been good and he does race well when produced fresh.
Race 2. (12:10) New Season Handicap (84) 1700m
2 Dulverton (Bet Now: $3.70) is a mare who is low flying at the moment for the Robert Smerdon camp. She raced over the mile here a fortnight back where she was back in a slowly run race, but she had that cover into the wind and once given clear air, she let down powerfully and was strong to the line, so the 1700m here is no issue and she rates highly.
8 Mulinello (Bet Now: $12.00) will appreciate the step up to the 1700m after racing over the mile at Sandown last time out. Attempted to lead all the way and I think Baster just went a tad too slow on the mare, which left her outsprinted, but she stuck on well. I think if she leads, let her roll and make them chase.
4 Miss It And A Bit (Bet Now: $21.00) is a Tassie mare who had been racing okay over there during the Carnival before being tipped out. Resumed at the midweeks at Sandown and stunned most with a win, and a dashing/tough win at that too under Steph Thornton, who retains the ride. Can she repeat the dose? I doubt it, but you have to respect the win fresh given there is upside to come.
Race 3. (12:45) Winter Lodge Handicap 1000m
2 Chateau Griffo (Bet Now: $3.00) on top. Well bred filly for Robbie Griffiths who resumes here after debuting in the Blue Diamond Preview in the Autumn where she ran a ripping third to Limestone and Tulip, two of the better fillies we’ve got going around. That reads so well for this, and her recent jump out win at Cranbourne was outstanding.
1 Madeenaty (Bet Now: $2.90) is a smart filly that resumes for the Hayes/Dabernig team. She is a straight track/short course specialist who has a stack of class/ability on her side against this lot, and she did look sharp in a recent jump out here. Has to carry the weight, but I think class/brilliance gets her home.
3 Crown Witness (Bet Now: $4.60) is a Stuart Webb trained filly who looked the part at the jump outs prior to debuting at Sandown last Wednesday in what looked a strong race race on paper and she showed superb early toe to sit on speed, then kick into another gear and dash clear for a dominant. Looks promising and should measure up.
Race 4. (13:20) The Nursery Handicap 2000m
2 Killarney Kid (Bet Now: $4.00) looks ready to win now for the Weir camp. Loved his effort here a fortnight back when working home hard against the tempo behind stablemate Pacodali. Getting closer to peak fitness now, the Flemington 2000m is his fav track/distance, has the upside…one to beat for sure.
11 Galaxy Raider (Bet Now: $6.50) is a pest for all concerned. He has a stack of ability but he can never quite put it all together, and that was the case again at the midweeks at Sandown where he got a mile back in the run yet savaged the line to just miss. Up to 2000m looks perfect and he only has to be within a few lengths of them on the turn to be a real threat.
3 Extra Zero (Bet Now: $9.00) is an absolute beauty for the Hayes/Dabernig team who loves racing here and rarely runs a shocker at Headquarters. Tempo was perhaps against him in the Pacodali race here but he stuck to his guns very well and was actually quite good to the line and through it. Can he turn the tables? Wouldn’t put it beyond him.
Race 5. (13:55) The Stayers Lounge Handicap (90) 1200m
Going to have a throw at the stumps here in the shape of 5 Red Alto (Bet Now: $14.00). He is a quality galloper that resumes for the Brent Stanley camp after a very good Summer/Autumn prep, which saw him win four races, including one at the Valley. 1200m is short of his best, but he did win like Black Caviar fresh last time. Ran last in a Sat Arnaud trial but looked very good to my eye.
7 Nikitas (Bet Now: $2.90) is rejuvenated colt since coming to the Weir camp. He ran at the Caulfield 1400m three weeks back where he was given a lovely ride by Ben Allen and presented at the right to score a narrow but impressive win. Things fell into place there, so he’ll have to work a bit to get the win here, but I think he is capable and back to 1200m is perfect.
2 Inspector (Bet Now: $10.00) is a talented galloper that resumes for Peter White. His best days are probably behind him but he tries hard and doesn’t turn it up, like some can here. He is probably better suited over 1400m, but keep in mind that he did run a beauty against the bias in the Newmarket. Reads very well for this.
Race 6. (14:30) 1 Oliver St Plate (78) 2500m
8 Chequered Flag (Bet Now: $3.90) is a talented galloper for the Weir camp who was so impressive two back over the hurdles at the Bool before racing over the longer trip at Sandown where he sat near the speed before being pushed into the clear and he just ran them into submission late. He can handle the class rise here.
7 Yogi (Bet Now: $2.70) is a horse that will make sure that his supporters won’t have much hair or nails left. He is a horse who just flops out the back but just savages the line late, which is what he has done in recent times at Sandown and has been successful a couple of times. That came to a halt last time out where he got too far back and the run he had to make was enormous when third to Global Gentl. Has run okay up to 2400m, so the 2500m here is no issue.
5 Xebec (Bet Now: $21.00) is a definite improver for mine. Chris Waller trained import who was excellent here fresh behind stablemate Encosta Line before going to Sandown where he had the second up syndrome and failed to fire behind Global Gentl. Be wary of the third up bounce back with Oliver on.
Race 7. (15:10) Jockey Celebration Day Plate (70) 1600m
13 Rebellious Lord (Bet Now: $3.10) is a very interesting horse. Two for two on his home track at the Bool before racing over 1400m here a fortnight back where I thought he was fabulous in defeat behind Portman, and you could make a case he should have finished closer, perhaps won the race. That’s very strong form for this.
8 Dollar For Dollar (Bet Now: $7.50) on top. Talented galloper for the Tony McEvoy yard who tried to lead all the way here a fortnight back but I think Luke Currie was just a bit too cute on speed. Tried to go as slow as he can into the wind but I don’t think that is the way to ride this horse. Needs to be rolling and doing his own thing. If that eventuates, he’ll take some beating.
12 Jaminzah (Bet Now: $9.50) could be the knockout here at odds. He comes through the mile race here against his own age a fortnight back where he had a nice sit off the pace before shoving into the clear and looming large to win but I think he just didn’t quite go on with it. Draws to get a lovely run and I could make a case at $10.
Race 8. (15:50) John & Denise Cobcroft Recognition Handicap 1600m
5 Mihany (Bet Now: $23.00) looks a great play for me at odds. The Hayes/Dabernig trained galloper hasn’t quite set the world on fire but gee he finds a winnable race here. Ran over 1400m at Caulfield last time out and he just got too far back and did work in the run behind in form mare Schism. I think if he can lead here he will take some catching.
2 Amovatio (Bet Now: $5.00) has been given a little let up since the Winter Championship Final where Oliver just couldn’t quite get clear running at the right time and the eventual winner Tshahitsi just packed too many punches. Been a little while since he has won, but he gets a great chance here I feel, especially off that last start effort.
14 Hardern (Bet Now: $27.00) was first up in the Orient Line race over 1400m at Caulfield three weeks back and there was a bit of support to suggest he’d run well and that is what he did when sticking on gamely to run fifth. He is a second up, he has run well at Flemington before and up to the mile is ideal. I’d be throwing him in exotics for sure.
Race 9. () The Rails Handicap (84) 1400m
12 Portman (Bet Now: $3.70) was backed as if unbeatable when racing here at this track/distance a fortnight back and for those that dived in, it was a pretty painless watch. Had the 1/1 sit, Williams counted to 10 and it was all over. Can only improve off that given he was second up and looks a great bet again.
The extra week off should really suit 13 Revolving Door (Bet Now: $4.50). He did an enormous job at Caulfield three weeks back considering he was wide no cover throughout on a good speed and chased hard all the way but couldn’t hold out Nikitas. Flemington 1400m is different gravy to the Caulfield 1400m, but he’s racing so well at the moment.
15 Municipality (Bet Now: $26.00) is four weeks between runs since racing over 1700m at Gawler where he didn’t quite appear happy on the heavy track and I doubt he ran the trip out behind Magic Boy, who ran okay last weekend. Back to 1400m is ideal and with a drag into the race, he can launch and beat these.
Race 10. () The Domain Handicap 2000m
9 Eureka Street (Bet Now: $4.80) comes through the Windbern race at Caulfield three weeks back in what was a real messy affair. Just got a mile out of his ground and was one of many checked in the straight but his effort was still very good. Crying out for further, but the Flemington 2000m will feel like a very strong 2000m, which will suit.
3 Spanish Reef (Bet Now: $4.80) is a tough and gritty mare for the Ken Keys yard who looks ready to tackle the 2000m. She scored a tough win at Sandown two back before going to the Rivette Final at Flemington where she was under pressure and looked as if Ruby Sea was going to go past her, but she kept finding and ended up drawing clear, telling me that the ten furlongs will be no issue.
6 Kipe (Bet Now: $35.00) is a progressive staying gelding for the Patrick Payne who has earned a shot in town after a dominant win over the mile at Donald last time out where Jarrod Fry found the best ground out wide and he let down powerfully late. Looks a stayer of promise and I’m confident he can measure up.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Nine Number 12 Portman
NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 2 Killarney Kid
VALUE: Race Eight Number 5 Mihany
Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):
Leg One: 4, 8, 12, 13
Leg Two: 1, 2, 5, 13, 14
Leg Three: 4, 6, 10, 12, 13, 15
Leg Four: 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, 11
$50 Investment= 6.94% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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