Melbourne metro racing this Saturday returns to Flemington for a nine race program. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out eight metres for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (11:40) Vrc Member Emma Sargeant Plate 2500m
1 Haky (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) looks ready to win for Archie Alexander. Specked him at odds when racing three weeks ago at Flemington. 400m out he looked like he would 5th/6th but he kept chipping away and was good to the line when a narrow second to Declares War. Think a rise in trip suits and he does have more to come I’d suggest.
Interesting to see if jumping is on the cards for 7 Vividredsky (Bet Now: $18.00 TOP ODDS) given he did trial over the hurdles prior his last start effort here. It seemed to sharpen him up because he worked to the line pretty well, albeit a mile off Heart In Puissance in running third. He’ll be around the mark again.
I’ll include 8 Smokin’ Pierro (Bet Now: $13.00 TOP ODDS) for Michelle Payne. This guy is going really well at the moment. Ran at Caulfield four weeks ago and worked home well with purpose from the back when second to a very nice horse in Excelman, with a gap to third. Outclassed here? Not sure, but not putting a line through him.
Race 2. (12:15) Vrc Member Ben Edney (bm84) 1400m
Fraught with danger making a head strong horse like 4 Witchfulthinking (Bet Now: $8.00 TOP ODDS) one of the best on the program because she is hit and miss, but I saw enough in the Warrnambool to suggest she can go on with it. Admittedly, was fence in run on speed, which was gold for the Carnival, but even allowing for that, she was dominant. Majority of these are early on in the prep, out of form or outclassed whereas she is hard fit and in form. Hoping for an aggressive ride, leading throughout and clinging on.
2 La Vina (Bet Now: $3.30 TOP ODDS) should be suited up in trip for Lindsey Smith. Strong fresh winner over 1200m during the Warrnambool Carnival. Then came back to 1100m down the straight here and didn’t quite have the zip in the legs to finish it off behind Modear. Like her back up in trip and has upside.
1 Jay Jay D’Aar (Bet Now: $17.00 TOP ODDS) is an interesting runner. Formerly with Chris Waller, she now finds herself with Kevin Corstens. Hasn’t raced for a month since a game second at Eagle Farm behind the then in form Safado. Back to 1400m, couple of gear changes…watch the market and see what it does.
Race 3. (12:50) Vrc Member Lesley Millson-bm78 1400m
12 Chief Altony (Bet Now: $2.15 TOP ODDS) does look Saturday class and hopefully he can confirm that here. He made a mess of them at Ballarat last time out. Got into the right spot behind the speed and when McNeil clicked him up, away he went and he was dominant. Relative time was solid, he’s got upside…can only see a positive run from him here.
9 Beehunter (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) is the key market threat and with due respect, if Beehunter is the key market threat, you can see why Chief Altony has been popular. He’s a nice horse Beehunter and looks to have returned in good order…but it was one of those runs where he teased as a back me next start kind of run. He’ll run well, likely run top three…backing him to win is another matter.
6 Mr Tipla (Bet Now: $15.00 TOP ODDS) is sneaky going well for the Busuttin/Young team I feel. Close up behind Dice Roll and Altai Ranger in the first two runs back. Then went to Flemington and I don’t think he got the best of luck behind Vegas Knight. Wouldn’t have won but should have finished much closer. He’ll take beating in a race like this I think.
Race 4. (13:25) Vrc Member Philip Jacobsen Hcp 1100m
Peter Moody has certainly talked up his filly 7 Invincible Caviar (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS), not just because of who her mum is. That aside, he does think this filly is above average and this is the first youngster that Moody has trained with Black Caviar as the dam, so he knows the family and he reckons this filly is Stakes class. Jumpouts suggest she’s smart…fascinating to see what the market does.
11 Sistine Explorer (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) looks to have her share of talent. Andrew Noblet trained filly that resumed at Geelong and I thought her run was full of merit given where she was in the run. Had to cut back towards the inside and made up good ground, just missing out on the win. Got the talent to measure up for sure.
5 For Real Life (Bet Now: $34.00 TOP ODDS) should be better for her debut run, which came three weeks ago here over 1000m. She was a notable drifter in betting and ran accordingly. Was near the speed throughout and battled on pretty well without threatening. Better for that and is a leading chance.
Race 5. (14:05) Vrc Member T Gunnersen Am Hcp 1400m
Hard to get away from 3 Yulong January (Bet Now: $2.80). He’s just a reliable horse at this level and at this trip. Punters smashed him when racing here three weeks ago and the bets were landed. Sat on speed and when clicked up by Zahra, away he went and he was dominant. He can go on with it now.
9 Galaxy Raider (Bet Now: $18.00) did Galaxy Raider things in the race mentioned above. He got back, took a while to get into his work, but worked to the line pretty well albeit never a threat to Yulong January. He does draw soft now and potentially can sit a pair or two closer in the run.
Best version of 2 Harlech (Bet Now: $26.00) is certainly capable. Resumed on a testing track at Warrnambool in the Wangoom. I didn’t think he was too bad in defeat for a horse who clearly saves his best for firmer footing and voila, he gets that here. Can see him running a positive race at a big price.
Race 6. (14:45) Vrc Member Brian Lindsay Hcp 1400m
1 Mark Of The Man (Bet Now: $9.00) should prove hard to beat. Former UK galloper that is getting better with each outing for Aaron Purcell. Latest run came over 1400m at Flemington when just missing out on the win, beaten a lip by Summaroca. Showed when racing in the UK that he’s effective at the mile so whether this is a prep run for a 1600m race next time, not sure, but he’s got upside and talent.
10 Four Leaf Riot (Bet Now: $3.70) is the very interesting runner. Debuted at Kilmore on a very testing track and while I doubt he beat much, he absolute spanked them and was just so impressive. Is he a wet tracker? Or will he be better on top of the ground. Keen to see how he goes.
4 Cumberbatch (Bet Now: $23.00) should prove hard to beat for the Price/Kent team. Last couple have come at Flemington, two back over 1700m on Anzac Day behind Our Lone Star. Then went back to 1400m and was good late behind Summaroca so I think he’ll be better for that run and he does have a bit of quality about his form lines.
Race 7. (15:25) Vrc Member Maureen Salter Hcp 2000m
3 Reuber (Bet Now: $4.40) is bursting to win another race for Cindy Alderson. Looked like it would come two weeks ago here when Froggy pushed the button. He looked home, but was nabbed on the peg by Horrifying, who ran well in the Queensland Derby last Saturday, so the form looks strong. Hard to beat.
9 Marcolt (Bet Now: $6.50) is progressive and heading in the right direction. Was backed with confidence when racing here a fortnight back. Just got a mile off them in the run and spotted too much head start, but his finale was more than sound behind Horrifying. Dangerous if he can sit closer in the run.
5 Redwood Shadow (Bet Now: $4.40) deserves another chance. He was fancied when racing here behind Horrifying but just got back further than what most anticipated and just didn’t get into the contest, so I want to be forgiving of that outing. Prior form suggested a win was near.
Race 8. (16:05) Vrc Member William Capell Hcp 1100m
2 All Of Brighton (Bet Now: $5.00) has more to come I feel. Patrick Payne trained three year old that was a very strong winner at this track/distance two weeks ago. He found the outside fence with clear air to build the revs and that he did, launching late to overhaul them and land some big bets late. That was his first run in a month so you’d like to think there is room for improvement.
7 Thudson (Bet Now: $9.00) is a handy animal for Team Snowden that puts himself near the speed and is honest. Looked the winner when Lachie King pushed the button two weeks ago here but 1100m just found him out and was bloused late by All Of Brighton. He’ll go close…last bit will test.
Just not sure how good 4 Brenlyn’s Trooper (Bet Now: $18.00). I was on him at Albury last time out and what surprised me was the betting drift. He was $2.50 and got to $5+. From a Class 1 to open company, albeit in the country, but that was a significant rise in grade, and he was able to win. I’m keen to see how he goes in town.
Race 9. (16:35) Vrc Member Otto Kohn (bm84) 2000m
13 Excelman (Bet Now: $4.20) for me in the get out. Bit of arrogance about his win four weeks ago at Caulfield and of course, the big tick that day was J Kah first time. He got the horse to relax and from the 600m onwards, it was a painless watch if you were on. Tricky set up here, but he looks like he could go right on with it.
16 Lunar Flare (Bet Now: $5.50) is flying for Grahame Begg and is bursting to win a race. Caught the eye fresh over the mile at Caulfield behind No Effort before going to the 1800m here and she worked home with real purpose from the back against the race shape when a close up third to Don’t Doubt Dory. Has to be hard to beat here.
12 Vegas Knight (Bet Now: $9.50) has found winning form again…can he go on with it? It was a strong win from him at Flemington. He was there to be run down but found plenty when required and he did have a fitness edge over the horse chasing him, San Fabrizio. He races best when on speed and rolling so hopefully for his fans, that eventuates here.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Five Number 3 Yulong January
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 4 Witchfulthinking
LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 1 Mark Of The Man
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1
Leg Two: 3, 4, 5, 9, 10
Leg Three: 2, 4, 5, 7
Leg Four: 10, 12, 13, 16
$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful
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