An absolute belter of a program has been assembled for Flemington on Sunday, with a star studded line up of races, highlighted by the $500,000 Group l Yellowglen Turnbull Stakes (2000m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out nine metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (12:30) : Maribyrnong Trial Stakes 1000m:
Back Me: This race doesn’t appear overly strong, so on the trials, I’ve landed with Rylea Lass (Best Odds: $17.00), who has won two of her three barrier trials, and both wins have been quite impressive. Down the straight the first time is always an ask for the babies, but she is drawn to follow them off the speed, and that will be beneficial.
Big Danger: Manuel (Best Odds: $1.90) is a first starter for Tony McEvoy. The son of Commands has only had the one trial, back home at Morphettville when winning narrowly. Time was nothing flash, but you always have to respect McEvoy when he brings horses to Melbourne.
Roughie: Wimborne (Best Odds: $11.00) is the first time we will get to see the Canford Cliffs progeny on race day. This one is trained by Robbie Laing, and he looked to go about his business alright when trialling behind Claro El Banco. Laing always can produce a handy juvenile, so watch market moves.
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Race Two (13:05) : Poseidon Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: Top Me Up (Best Odds: $4.00) had been performing quite well in quality Stakes races before Team Hawkes sent him to Geelong for the easy kill, and he did it in awesome style, leading all the way to win under not much pressure from Dwayne Dunn. Now that he has got the confidence boost, he can go right on with it now.
Big Danger: Dropping back to 1400m should really suit the Philip Stokes trained One For One (Best Odds: $8.00). He ran over the mile last start in the Morphettville Guineas and looked home with about 150m to go, but he died on his run and had to settle for third. The stable rarely travels to Melbourne without a win and Williams is aboard.
Roughie: Stoker (Best Odds: $10.00) wasn’t far off Bassett when they clashed in that Caulfield race mentioned above, with Stoker finishing fifth, beaten just under two lengths. Slight weight pull on that horse, and I think Stoker will appreciate the spacious surroundings Flemington has to offer given his racing pattern is to build up momentum.
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Race Three (13:40) : Gilgai Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: Chautauqua (Best Odds: $1.25). No need to say any more. He just wins.
Big Danger: Charlie Boy (Best Odds: $13.00) was very good when resuming in the Testa Rossa at Caulfield. He burst through and looked as though he was going to pick up Fell Swoop, but given he was carrying 60kg and the winner was rock hard fit, he couldn’t quite finish it off. Down in the weights now, and should run well…but won’t be beating the worlds best sprinter.
Roughie: Churchill Dancer (Best Odds: $11.00) is racing in such a purple patch at the moment, bolting up two back at the Valley before sitting on speed and clinging on for a brave win in the Bobbie Lewis, beating home Under The Louvre, who was excellent in the Sir Rupert Clarke. He is a straight track specialist who will give a bold sight at odds.
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Race Four (14:15) : UCI Stakes 1800m:
Back Me: Tivaci (Best Odds: $3.70) took care of the field impressively on debut at Echuca before going to Pakenham last Wednesday and running very well when third to Badawiya, who will be a leading contender in the Edward Manifold as well as the Thousand Guineas, so I think that form is very good for a race like this and she will love the rise in trip. Definite winning chance.
Big Danger: Iron Boss (Best Odds: $4.80) is a Mark Kavanagh trained youngster who was a real eye catcher when resuming at Seymour before Kav sent him to Geelong and he scored a very dominant win, charging through the line and looking like a real Derby prospect. It’s been a tough 12 months for Kav and apart from Magicool, he really hasn’t had a decent horse in a little while. This horse could potentially be the good horse he needs.
Roughie: Etymology (Best Odds: $4.60) was a real eye catcher when racing over the Caulfield mile last start, finishing off his race very strongly from near last in the run. Back on his home track now and the stable rider goes aboard. Drawn awkwardly, but he is a leading Derby contender and he should take some beating provided he gets luck from the gate.
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Race Five (14:50) : TAB Edward Manifold Stakes 1600m:
Back Me: Going with Sacred Eye (Best Odds: $3.70) to turn the tables of Don’t Doubt Mama. Sacred Eye was most impressive when winning on debut on the Geelong Synthetic before going to Caulfield and running an excellent second to Don’t Doubt Mama, charging home from well back and out wide. I am more confident about this filly running a strong Flemington mile compared to Don’t Doubt Mama.
Big Danger: Don’t Doubt Mama (Best Odds: $4.60) was a real eye catcher two back in the Atlantic Jewel before going to Caulfield and despite difficulties in the straight, she got clear and savaged the line for a strong win. Ability wise, she’s the best horse in the race. I just a have a question mark about her running a strong Flemington mile.
Roughie: Badawiya (Best Odds: $7.00) was another filly that was desperately unlucky in the Atlantic Jewel, getting badly held up behind tired runners. She dropped back to the midweeks at Pakenham last week and she was outstanding, charging home from last for a dominant win. She will love racing at 1600m, and given her racing style, she will be strong late.
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Race Six (15:30) : The Bart Cummings 2520m:
Back Me: Just looks a lovely race for Foundry (Best Odds: $2.70). He could have easily gone to the Metropolitan and won that, but the stable has elected to run here and come back to Melbourne after his slashing effort in the Kingston Town at Rosehill. Draws a lovely gate, races well at Flemington, Williams back on and is getting out to his ideal trip.
Big Danger: Bold Sniper (Best Odds: $5.50) was unbelievable in defeat when fourth to Magnapal in the Naturalism. He was wide no cover for the entire trip and was racing around Caulfield like Fevola on Brownlow night, but he still savaged the line for fourth. Drawn terribly here, and Parnham will probably have to hook him, but with better racing manners, he can blow these away.
Roughie: Let’s Make Adeal (Best Odds: $15.00) wasn’t far off them when eighth in the Naturalism, beaten roughly two lengths. She loves racing on her home track, and Dwayne Dunn is back on, and he rides the mare quite well.
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Race Seven (16:10) : Yellowglen Turnbull Stakes 2000m:
Back Me: Keen on Hartnell (Best Odds: $7.00). I thought his first up effort in the Chelmsford was excellent when fourth to stablemate Complacent given he was fresh and he chased the speed all the way. Has since trialled at Randwick and looked sharp in winning there. Gets his first look at Flemington, but would have had a few gallops in training on the track. Hard to beat.
Big Danger: Rising Romance (Best Odds: $7.00) i thought has been super her two runs this preparation and she is really knocking on the door for a win. She has a tricky gate to contend with however Damian Lane has been riding well and if he can get a little luck i think she is definitely the horse they will need to beat. If it wasn’t for the draw she would be on top.
Roughie: Set Square (Best Odds: $21.00) is third up now for Ciaron Maher after two strong runs this time in, starting off at Caulfield before a game fifth behind Iggimacool. She was caught wide in that race with no cover and looked gone on the turn, but her last 100m and through the line was a real eye catcher. She will be very strong late and gets much needed weight relief.
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Race Eight (16:50) : Blazer Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: If she can overcome the wide barrier, then I am all over Hazard (Best Odds: $7.00). Her two runs this time in have been fantastic, both of which have been in heats of the Sprint Series. She was enormous last start given she was four wide on speed for the entire trip and ended up less than two lengths off Politeness. McDonald on and hopefully he can overcome the draw.
Big Danger: Jessy Belle (Best Odds: $4.40) ran third in that Politeness race mentioned above and she was very good without a great deal of luck, getting held up a touch near the inside before bursting through and just missing out. She races very well at Flemington and Lane is sticking.
Roughie: Atlantis Dream (Best Odds: $5.50) was another unlucky runner in the Politeness race, getting chopped out and then held up in the straight before eventually getting clear and working to the line nicely. Rawiller remains on and this mare should improve fitness wise.
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Race Nine (17:25) : Paris Lane Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: Despite the quality being high in this field, I think Lord Aspen (Best Odds: $3.90) is a standout. He is a rising star who looked outstanding in a barrier trial before getting the job done first up at Morphettville, and he probably had no right to win given he did pull hard in the run, but on the line, he was strongest. Neilson comes over for the ride, draws well and he should improve leaps and bounds from the first up effort, plus he trialled like a superstar last week at Morphettville.
Big Danger: if there is going to be a threat, it’ll come thanks to Ulmann (Best Odds: $7.00), who was brilliant when resuming in the Testa Rossa, closing off hard for a close fourth to Fell Swoop, and was getting held up close to home. Boss on, inside gate and second up now. If Lord Aspen is off his game, this is the horse.
Roughie: Chivalry (Best Odds: $11.00) has been given a month freshen up after resuming at Moonee Valley where he didn’t get a great deal of luck in the straight behind Fell Swoop, who franked the form by winning his next start. Chivalry did look sharp in jump outs prior to that, so I think he is a definite place chance.
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BEST BET: Race Nine Number 15 Lord Aspen
NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 5 Foundry
VALUE: Race Seven Number 13 Set Square
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 5, 10
Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 9, 13, 14
Leg Three: 1, 2, 5, 7
Leg Four: 15
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