The Belmont Winter Carnival continues on Saturday where it is Belmont Oaks Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out five metres for the entire circuit.
Belmont Oaks 🏆: View the Field for the Belmont Oaks
Race 1. (13:23) WESTSPEED MDN 1600m
9 Just Under (Bet Now: $4.40) for me. Brett Pope trains mare, who resumed over 1400m at Pinjarra last Thursday where she got a fair way back in the run before slicing her way through the field in the straight, getting splits nearer the inside and burst through to win, but couldn’t quite finish it off when a narrow third. Nearer the inside that meeting got worse as the day progressed, so with that in mind, think she’ll take some beating here.
3 Final Chill (Bet Now: $3.30) is racing well for Kieran McDonagh, but over staying trips, so back to the mile is interesting but a good lead is the stable finds Pike to steer. Was wide most of the way over 2200m at Northam last start but stuck on really well in defeat behind Arrowswift. He’ll be strong at the end…does he have change up speed?
Think a rise to the mile will suit 5 Spirited Lad (Bet Now: $8.50). Son of Sessions that ran over 1300m here last time out and was very one paced when initially asked for the big effort but picked up and was okay late when fourth to Beat The Bro. Off that, 1600m looks ideal for this guy and in a winnable race, is a knockout chance.
Race 2. (13:58) FREE ENTRY TO BELMONT PLATE 1200m
1 Surveillance (Bet Now: $3.10) looks the most obvious. Jim Taylor trains this juvenile, who is first up, having not raced since the Magic Millions at Pinjarra when a game second to one of the best juveniles in WA, Gemma’s Son. Been given a good break and has had the benefit of two trials to get ready. Has the form on the board to win.
2 Miss Ivy League (Bet Now: $6.00) has been up a little while for Michael Lane but continues to race well. Attempted to lead all the way two weeks ago over 1300m here and tried very hard but was clearly no match late for the above average Reign Of Fire. Like her back to 1200m, should land near the speed and prove hard to get past.
7 King Lucifer (Bet Now: $20.00) is an interesting runner. Son of All American for Karen Kersley that was well backed when debuting over 1000m here when midfield with cover and seemed to be going well but didn’t really fire a shot in the straight and was very disappointing. Subsequent trial was quite good and can’t ignore the strong market support on debut.
Race 3. (14:37) OLD MATE'S SPORTS BAR PLATE 1200m
14 Wunderkind (Bet Now: $7.50) on top. Neville Parnham trains this Gingerbread Man filly, who is on debut. Has had two trials this prep to get ready for start one and has looked pretty good each time, the latest trial over 1000m and she won it in solid enough time. Has gate one to use and off the trials, has the gate speed to take advantage of it.
2 La Farola (Bet Now: $9.00) is a daughter of Deep Field for Michael Lane who resumed over 1300m here two weeks ago and though finishing down the track behind Reign Of Fire, she should have finished much closer after getting badly held up late when building the revs. Back to 1200m is a query but draws wide and should get clear air from the outset.
7 Mystery Man (Bet Now: $4.60) is a Bradbury’s Luck gelding having start one for Georeg Dupre. Unfashionable trainer/jock combo so you might get a decent price about him. His two trials to get ready for the debut have been quite good I think, the latest seeing him win. Draws an okay gate and overall, this isn’t a strong race.
Race 4. (15:17) AMELIA PARK HCP 1400m
8 Showmanship (Bet Now: $1.16) looks the pony to beat. Very promising gelding for Team Williams that has won his past two starts in such impressive fashion over 1400m here, the latest being two weeks ago. Didn’t beat much but it was the manner in which he put them away that impressed me. Creeping up in ratings/weights, but he looks Stakes class.
Fitter and up to 1400m are two big ticks for the Adam Durrant trained 6 Not To Be Mist (Bet Now: $8.00). Resumed over 1200m here three weeks ago where he did open favourite but the money arrived big time for Mankind, who ended up starting favourite and was too good, just. Not To Be Mist will improve off that and is hard to beat.
1 Wrinkly (Bet Now: $21.00) tries his guts out every time he steps out for Neville Parnham. Puts himself on speed, makes sure it’s a proper race and gives his all, which is what he did two weeks ago over the mile here, getting caught late by Mrs Brown’s Boy in a close photo finish. Back to 1400m should be fine and he’ll take some catching.
Race 5. (15:53) DEVIL'S LAIR HCP 1400M
7 Truly Great (Bet Now: $5.00) for me. Team Williams trains this gelding, who is first up, having not raced since March 11 at Ascot when getting a dream sit just off the speed before peeling into clear air under Pike and the son of Dundeel was able to wear them down. To me, he seems a 1600m+ horse, so like him resuming at 1400m and recent trial was good.
11 Montelena (Bet Now: $6.00) is a quality filly who is second up here. Resumed over 1300m at this track where she was asked to lump 61kg and Pike gave her every chance from just off the speed. Got the split and loomed to win, but 61kg on wet ground, first up, her condition just gave out late. She’ll improve off that with weight relief and is a key chance.
4 Butterlea Lad (Bet Now: $41.00) is a son of Eurozone that resumes for the Scott Haley camp. Was a bit hit and miss when last in work but his best is certainly capable enough of causing problems at odds. Last run came on February 1 at Ascot over 1800m when down the track behind The Big Show after pulling hard in the run. Trial win was solid and his best chance of winning will be leading and rolling.
Race 6. (16:33) SEACORP HCP 1000M
Hopefully sustained speed can come to the fore via 1 We’ve Got Dreams (Bet Now: $9.50), who comes back to her own age after taking on older horses at her past couple, the latest coming two weeks ago over this trip when leading after being tardy away and that early burn just told late when fourth to Cryptic Love. She’ll take some beating here, especially with the claim.
9 She’s Enchanted (Bet Now: $8.50) should be given another chance back to 1000m. Ran over 1200m here two weeks ago off the back of a sharp win over 1000m here and IMO, the six furlongs found her out when beaten over four lengths by Mood Swings. Her three runs prior, all at 1000m, were dynamic, so giving her another chance.
5 Wine Night (Bet Now: $7.00) is a daughter of Playing God for the Justine Erkelens stable that was a heavily backed favourite when resuming over this track/distance just over two weeks ago when near the speed throughout before taking the lead halfway down the straight and though out of petrol tickets late, she clung on. Gets weight relief and does no work from gate one. Hard to beat.
Race 7. (17:10) KIRIN MEGUMI HCP 1200M
12 Long Beach (Bet Now: $4.20) is a promising son of I Am Invincible for Team Williams that resumes. Created a really good impression when last in work during the Summer, winning his first two starts for the campaign in really impressive fashion before bumping into a Stakes class horse, Talladega, and was spelled soon after. Liked the recent trial and with good speed engaged here, can see him sitting back and finishing over the top.
4 Indian Pacific (Bet Now: $2.20) is a beauty for Neville Parnham and will give his all near the speed. This three year old comes back to 1200m after sitting on speed over 1300m here last time out and showed really good ticker, like he did first up, to fend them off and cling on to win. First up he beat Windstorm, who looks a Stakes winner in waiting, so that form reads super for this.
2 Sir Mambo (Bet Now: $11.00) is going super for the Martin Allan team. Ran over this track/distance two weeks ago when doing work from the wide gate to get near the speed and tried hard, as he always does, but had to be content with second to Son Of A God. He draws much better this time around and McNaught is back on.
Race 8. (17:45) AQUANITA STAKES 2000M
8 Uncle Dick (Bet Now: $2.70) does a bit wrong, but when it comes to an engine under the hood, he’s the standout against this lot. Promising animal for Lindsey Smith that ran over the mile at Pinjarra last Thursday on a testing track and when placed under pressure in the straight, he wanted to lay in, but once he focused, he really surged late and it was the bob of the head that beat him. Up to 2000m looks fine and overall, this is an awful race depth wise.
4 Eurasia (Bet Now: $5.50) up to 2000m is interesting. He ran over the 1700m here last Wednesday when seemingly getting every chance from just off the speed. He tried hard but couldn’t quite finish it off when third to the promising Chantrea. Off that, 2000m has to be a query, but he does get gate one here and the depth, overall, is thin.
9 Arrowswift (Bet Now: $23.00) lacks the class of some of these but the trip will certainly be no issue for him given he was strong to the line in winning his maiden last time out over 2200m at Northam, winning a race where it was truly run and a staying contest. Best chance of him winning will be leading and rolling along given he is hard fit.
Race 9. (18:20) BELMONT OAKS 2000M
This race is very much wide open now with Kay Cee, so I’m going with one on the up in the shape of 10 Heaven’s Gift (Bet Now: $12.00) for Holly Locke. She’s been telling me for a while this filly goes good and will only get better over a staying trip, so her opening two starts/wins are pretty much a bonus, and more so any sort of blacktype next to her name here. Kay Cee is out, so there a number of chances, and I think she’s clearly the value.
3 Karijini Aurora (Bet Now: $5.50) is the only one here that I could see causing a massive surprise and beating Kay Cee. She comes through the Belmont Guineas as well and was luckless I thought. Had something to offer but couldn’t get a clear run until it was too late. Off that effort, she should appreciate 2000m and is the only horse I can see giving some sort of challenge to Kay Cee.
2 Cambist (Bet Now: $4.60) is a Robyn Lockwood trained filly that ran second to Kay Cee in the Belmont Guineas and I thought her run was pretty good. Kay Cee had the back of her and looked like she was always going to beat Cambist but credit to her, she stuck on and was quite game in defeat. Can’t see her beating Kay Cee, but should run well again.
Race 10. (18:55) CROWN PERTH HCP 1600M
7 Jeraft (Bet Now: $27.00) looks ready to win I think. Just needed the run behind Windstorm over 1300m here before backing up a week later over the mile, found firmer footing, and stuck on really well, hitting the line with purpose when fourth to Mrs Brown’s Boy. Has that 1600m run under the belt and IMO looks ready to go.
1 King Blitz (Bet Now: $5.00) is a beauty for Barry Newnham. Had a freshen up prior to racing over the mile two weeks ago where he got back off the solid speed and came wide, presenting as a likely winner, but just couldn’t quite sustain the run and condition gave out late. He’ll take good improvement off that and is a leading contender.
I think 2 Friar Fox (Bet Now: $23.00) can be a big improver, but she needs a dry deck. I think just scrap her two runs back from a break given they have come on genuine wet tracks and she doesn’t seem to go a yard on them. Much better on top of the ground, so for her chances, hopefully the track is good. One for multiples I suggest.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 8 Uncle Dick
NEXT BEST: Race Race Two Number 1 Surveillance
LONG SHOT: Race Ten Number 7 Jeraft
Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):
Leg One: 2, 4, 8, 12
Leg Two: 8
Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 10
Leg Four: 1, 2, 5, 7, 14
$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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