The Carnival at Warrnambool continues this Wednesday with another strong ten race card, highlighted by the Wangoom Handicap (1200m). The weather is overcast, the track is heavy (10) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race One (11:30) : Decron Maiden Hurdle 3600m:
Back Me: 1 Banksters Bonus (Best Odds: $2.30) makes his jumps debut for Tony McEvoy after a couple of impressive efforts on the flat under the care of Tony McEvoy. Trials over the sticks have been quite encouraging and he will love a track with give in it.
Big Danger: 11 Waxing (Best Odds: $2.20) is the watch horse. First jumps start for Darren Weir off the back of some strong form on the flat and a couple of impressive trial efforts. John Allen rides and the horse is in form.
Roughie: 6 Lordoftheparrots (Best Odds: $15.00) was backed heavily last time out in a hurdle race at Hamilton but was quite disappointing behind Big Ben Chimes. Trained on the track and that market push last start was strong so I’ll respect and give this horse an outside winning chance.
Race Two (12:05) : Optus Shop Warrnambool Maiden Plate 1700m:
Back Me: 3 Kinglami (Best Odds: $3.00) resumed in a pretty strong maiden race at Ballarat and worked home well late behind Dusty Mamba. Outside Star Siren, this is a thin maiden and this horse is trained on the track, and gets the services of Ollie.
Big Danger: 8 Mrs Zeltfire (Best Odds: $3.80) ran under the lights at Cranbourne a couple of weeks back and was quite disappointing behind Kilts despite being a well backed favourite. Her form this time in hasn’t been great, but she gets Yendall and fourth up now, she should be ready to peak.
Roughie: 2 Day In Court (Best Odds: $17.00) closed off well on Anzac Day at Avoca over 1800m when third to Seven Reasons. Being by Domesday, he should get through the heavy 10 well and the claim for Ben Allen helps.
Race Three (12:35) : Coffey Hunt Chartered Accoutants Maiden Plate 1700m:
Back Me: 5 Sadia (Best Odds: $10.00) debuted at Ararat a tick over a week ago and worked home well when second to Lady Selkirk, who will be a winning chance later on in the program, so I think the form reads well, and despite drawing wide, he ticks plenty of boxes.
Big Danger: 10 Luisa Maree (Best Odds: $13.00) was a very short priced elect at Colac last time out and on face value, she looked very disappointing behind Twelfth Raj. Taking away the price, the run was alright, but she was $1.50, so she’d be hard to butter up on, but perhaps the bigger track will suit her.
Roughie: 14 Vatiaz (Best Odds: $19.00) has been given a 23 day freshen up since placing over 1400m at Hamilton when second to Turn Again, beaten just under a length. The filly gives the impression she’ll eat up the trip, and the stable is having a really good run at the moment.
Race Four (13:05) : Winning Edge Presentations Maiden Plate 1400m:
Back Me: 7 Our Guarantee (Best Odds: $8.50) stuck on well at his debut at Donald over 1000m. Bred to relish the extra 400m and the bloodlines do suggest he will swim comfortably.
Big Danger: 5 Guru Jim (Best Odds: $3.70) was smashed in betting last time out over 1400m at Bendigo but could only manage fourth to Accreditation, beaten under two lengths. Bit of an unknown on the heavy ground, but as we saw yesterday, you can put nothing against Darren Weir.
Roughie: 4 Grand Awakening (Best Odds: $5.50) resumes here for the Wilde camp after two runs in the Summer, both of which were quite encouraging. Trained on the track and the stable love to get a winner during their hometown carnival, so check if there is a market push.
Race Five (13:35) : Silvan Ridge Futurity Inglis Bonus (70) 1400m:
Back Me: 2 Boogie Woogie Man (Best Odds: $5.50) is two from two for Darren Weir and John Allen. He ran over 1200m at Mildura last time out and toughed it out strongly on speed to win narrowly but impressively. Looks the leader here, and the 30 day freshen up should suit this son of Turffontein perfectly.
Big Danger: 4 Viceroy (Best Odds: $11.00) ran on the Pakenham Synthetic last time out and stuck to the task pretty well though beaten convincingly when second to Ma Deuce. This horse has some really good behind, and if he brings that here, he is a definite winning chance.
Roughie: 15 Lady Selkirk (Best Odds: $8.00) was given a lovely ride from Yendall to win last time out at Ararat, bolting up and doing it with a fair bit of ease. Tipping the form out of that race to hold up well and only has to overcome the tricky gate to be a contender.
Race Six (14:10) : Sovereign Resort Galleywood Hurdle 3200m:
Back Me: 4 Stand To Gain (Best Odds: $34.00) looks great value in this race. He started $21 in winning this race last year and from what I have seen at the trials, he is going better now than what he was last year. Forget his two runs this time given they have been on firm ground. This will be race 16 of the Carnival, so the track will be chopped out and have give in it, and that will be ideal.
Big Danger: 3 Arch Fire (Best Odds: $4.40) comes here off a last start second to Gingerboy over 3300m at Sandown over the sticks in a really good effort. The key to this horse is a wet track, because he is a swimmer, and the stable knows how to get them ready on the big stage.
Roughie: 1 Wells (Best Odds: $11.00) is another horse who looks tremendous odds in the race. I thought his run last time out at Cranbourne on the flat behind Choix de Mama was full of merit, and the trials since have been impressive. $13…he should be half that.
Race Seven (14:45) : Sinclair Wilson Handicap (70) 1000m:
Back Me: 9 Jersey Girl (Best Odds: $4.40) has been in super form in recent times for Mick Price, including a gritty win at Cranbourne under the lights where she got held up a touch in the straight before getting clear and attacking the line. She handles give in the track and is drawn the right part of the track.
Big Danger: 8 Super Fun (Best Odds: $7.00) resumed over this trip at Ballarat three weeks ago and worked home strongly from off the speed to win and win impressively. He has teased for a while now, but that win was very encouraging and I can only see upside with him.
Roughie: 14 Parcel (Best Odds: $11.00) is a very interesting type. Resumes here for Wez Hunter after a somewhat disappointing Spring, albeit in much harder races than this. Unknown on a wet track, but she bolted up on a heavy track prior to the Spring prep, beating home Group l performer Secret Agenda by seven lengths.
Race Eight (15:20) : Midfield Group Wangoom Handicap 1200m:
Back Me: 6 Jimando (Best Odds: $10.00) comes here through the Anniversary Vase (1400m) at Caulfield where he stuck to the task quite gamely when running fourth to the above average mare Precious Gem. Hasn’t won for over a year, but he is knocking on the door to win and looks very well weighted.
Big Danger: 16 Stellar Collision (Best Odds: $4.60) just looked a touch outclassed last time out in the Arrowfield Sprint (1200m) at Randwick behind Group l winner Japonisme. This looks his go, draws well and should take some beating.
Roughie: 14 Noela’s Choice (Best Odds: $9.00) drops in grade after contesting the Gold Bracelet at Bendigo where she was caught in the worst ground behind Written, who has ran well since so the form reads well and now with Darren Weir, I am expecting her to run a big race.
Race Nine (15:55) : Warrnambool Hyundai Handicap (64) 1700m:
Back Me: 2 Huffanpuff (Best Odds: $15.00) is a quality animal that resumes for the Durden yard. He started off his career in New Zealand before making his Australian debut on Geelong Cup Day when finishing midfield behind Zanteca, who went within a lip of beating Excess Knowledge, who went on to run a beauty in the Cup, so the form stacks up very well…how is he $31?
Big Danger: 4 Fellspur (Best Odds: $4.20) ran over the mile on Terang Cup Day and closed off strongly from near the back to run third to Denpasar, beaten two lengths. John Allen goes aboard now and he loves a track with give in it.
Roughie: This is one of the easiest races that 19 Nordic Duke (Best Odds: $19.00) has contested in some time. Been out of form for some though, but the trip away back to Victoria and a wet track could spark him into action.
Race Ten (16:30) : Duncans Liquor Handicap (70) 1400m:
Back Me: 10 Heza Ripper (Best Odds: $3.30) charged home last time out at Sandown last week but just failed in picking up All About Rhythm. He is a really good horse who hasn’t really put it all together, but he looks ready to do it here.
Big Danger: 4 Better Land (Best Odds: $3.50) can be a horse to follow, but in general, he has been okay this time in, both with Peter Moody and now with Darren Weir. Loves a heavy track and draws well with Rawiller aboard.
Roughie: 13 Barely A Scent (Best Odds: $26.00) resumed at Colac and just got too far back in a race dominated by those near the speed. She is a talented mare when right, and second up now, she could fire, and looks overs at $26.
BEST BET: Race Ten Number 10 Heza Ripper
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 3 Kinglami
VALUE: Race Six Number 4 Stand To Gain
Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):
Leg One: 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 14
Leg Two: 2, 3, 5, 6, 9, 14, 16, 17
Leg Three: 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 12, 19
Leg Four: 1, 4, 6, 7, 10, 13
$50 Investment= 2.48% of the dividend if successful
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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