31/5/2014 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Eagle Farm, Queensland Oaks day

Doomben is done and dusted, now it’s time for Eagle Farm to have the spotlight! And as always, the first day is a beauty, highlighted by the $400,000 Treasury Casino & Hotel Queensland Oaks (2400m), where classy Sydney filly Arabian Gold has the race at her mercy after an arrogant win in the traditional lead up, the Doomben Roses (2000m).

Some of the better class three year olds will strive to squeeze into the final Stradbroke field when they line up in the $350,000 Group ll Sky Racing Queensland Guineas (1400m), where the likes of Agadir, Costa Viva, Hucklebuck and Havana will race to gain entry into the big one next week.

Final tunes up for the Brisbane Cup (2400m) will be done by some of the leading players in the $250,000 Group ll Eagle Farm Cup (2200m), where Akzar appears to be the clear horse to beat after his slashing fourth in the Doomben Cup (2000m).

The older gallopers will get their chance to gain a start in the Stradbroke when they contest the $175,000 Group ll Magic Millions QTC Cup (1300m). The race in recent years has proven to be a good guide heading towards the big one seven days later.

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Race One (11:45) : Mitty’s Handicap (90) 1800m Form Guide

Back Me: Kiwi visitor King Kamada (Best Odds: $4.80) worked home really strongly in a similar race over the Doomben mile a fortnight back when a narrow fourth to Bewhatyouwannabe. Extra furlong is a big tick, and he’ll lover the bigger surroundings of Eagle Farm. Heading towards races like the Ipswich Cup and Caloundra Cup, but still should make his presence felt here.
Big Danger: Bewhatyouwannabe (Best Odds: $6.50) had the dream run in that race and duly saluted, albeit narrowly. Has to rise in weight and steps up to 1800m, which is a slight concern, but from barrier one, Nolen will put him to sleep, which should allow him every chance to run a strong 1800m.
Roughie: The rock hard fit horse will be the Adelaide visitor Stella Lante (Best Odds: $4.60), who has racked up plenty of frequent flyer points thanks to Melbourne visits. She tried her guts out last start in the Centaurea over the 2000m at Morphettville on a slow track, so she’ll have no issues with the 1800m here and will love the return to a firmer surface.

$250 King Kamada Free Bet

Race Two (12:25) : KRA Busan The Phoenix 1400m Form Guide

Back Me: I didn’t mind the debut run of Fixation (Best Odds: $17.00) at Ipswich. He never looked comfortable racing around that tricky circuit and only really found his feet over the final furlong, hitting the line with purpose. Quickly up to 1400m is no worries, gets on his home track and strikes a pretty thin race here. Stable are having a wicked run at the moment, and there is no reason why it can’t continue with this promising youngster.
Big Danger: Elitist (Best Odds: $2.60) bounced back from a disappointing first up performance with a strong third to Tales Of Fashion in the Lancaster a fortnight back. Extra distance suits and will love returning to Eagle Farm.
Roughie: Walk To The Bar (Best Odds: $26.00) did a power of work on a bottomless Sunshine Coast surface last start and didn’t look happy in the going, but still slogged it out best to win impressively. What he beat is a question, but the way he ran through the line tells me that he is crying out for this distance and draws beautifully.

$250 Fixation Free Bet

Race Three (13:05) : Eagle Farm Cup 2200m Form Guide

Back Me: Looks to be a pretty safe bet here in the shape of Akzar (Best Odds: $2.50), who has been a revelation since joining the Darren Weir camp, with the highlight being his stunning Warrnambool Cup win two back where he was no closer than the centre of the track yet drew away with every stride in the straight. He then went to the Doomben Cup and was one of many not suited by the on pace bias, but he weaved his way through narrow gaps and ran a sensational fourth. Should bolt in here, and then the Brisbane Cup.
Big Danger: Moriarty (Best Odds: $4.20) ran his usual honest race in the Doomben Cup, running a credible fifth. He is always competitive at this level, but does struggle to greet the judge. The small field and returning to Eagle Farm gives him a great chance to register a win on the board, but he’d want to improve a bit to topple the top tip.
Roughie: Mr O’Ceirin (Best Odds: $7.00) needs a soft track to show his true colours, but he is a sneaky upset chance here given there is absolutely no early speed engaged here, so Bossy could do as he pleases here and walk them in front, like he did in the Naturalism last Spring. As I said, needs a wet track, but the cheap lead brings him into the exotic conversation.

$250 Akzar Free Bet

Race Four (13:45) : Channel Seven Bright Shadow Handicap 1200m Form Guide

Back Me: She’s Clean (Best Odds: $3.70) has really gone off the boil since the Spring, but there have been signs that she may just be getting back on track. Loved her trial behind a future star in Excess Knowledge, then went around in the Juanmo and was far from disgraced when fourth to Srikandi. She is the clear highest rated runner in the race hence the lofty weight, but the bigger track of Eagle Farm and a fairer racing surface should see her be right in the finish.
Big Danger: Single Style (Best Odds: $6.50) made up good ground in that race won by Srikandi despite the fact that mare had a picnic in front. Single Style is always around the mark at this level and is another that will appreciate coming to Eagle Farm. Her best runs have come when ridden cold, so expect them to adopt similar tactics here given there looks to be good speed engaged.
Roughie: Little Brown Horse (Best Odds: $9.00) stuck to the task gamely in the Juanmo where she was another not suited by the slow tempo. Races very well at Eagle Farm, and at 1200m, and for mine, she strikes a very winnable race here provided she gets the right run.

$250 She’s Clean Free Bet

Race Five (14:25) : XXXX Gold Spear Chief Handicap 1500m Form Guide

Back Me: Lady Echelon (Best Odds: $4.80) is racing so well at the moment without winning. Took a gem ride by Browne on Angel Of Mercy to beat her two back in the Members Handicap, then dropped back to benchmark company and just failed to pick up Bewhatyouwannabe on a day where leaders were dominating. Gets weight relief here and gets back to Eagle Farm, where she races quite well.
Big Danger: Pleiades (Best Odds: $7.50) has had two fair runs this time in, both in Stakes company back home. Worked home okay in the Darley Crown behind Aerobatics, then never got into the Dark Jewel behind Seaside in a race dominated by those up near the speed. Third up at 1500m, thin race…won’t get a better chance to find some form.
Roughie: Startsmeup (Best Odds: $9.50) was quite good in the BRC Sprint, coming from well back in a slowly run race for a meritorious seventh, beaten just under six lengths. Races well at Eagle Farm and can perform well second up with the right run. Will need the speed on, and if that eventuates, he’ll be hitting the line as hard as anything else.

$250 Lady Echelon Free Bet

Race Six (15:00) : Sky Racing Queensland Guineas 1400m Form Guide

Back Me: Costa Viva (Best Odds: $10.00) is the interesting one. She has been kept fresh since a slashing fourth in the Gold Coast Guineas to Dothraki, where it appeared as though the rider was riding as if it was a barrier trial. She is a classy filly from NZ who may be aimed towards the Tatt’s Tiara, so I think whatever she does here, she will improve on, but as I said, she has the class and talent to win despite that factor.
Big Danger: Agadir (Best Odds: $8.00) is first up for John O’Shea and Darley. Is still eligible for the Stradbroke, so would need to win this impressively to warrant a start in the big race next week, but he did look to trial very well last week and draws beautifully here to get a dream sit somewhere close to the speed.
Roughie: Havana (Best Odds: $5.50) was a disappointing third in the Mick Dittman to Agitate after being heavily backed, then backed up seven days later and improved sharply to win the Fred Best, beating home most of his rivals here. He probably doesn’t have as much upside as some of them though, so that’s the concern with him, but he is in winning form and will appreciate Eagle Farm.

$250 Queensland Guineas Free Bet

Race Seven (15:40) : Treasury Casino & Hotel Queensland Oaks 2400m Form Guide

Back Me: If they run the Oaks the same way they did in the Roses, then Arabian Gold (Best Odds: $2.70) will win and win with ridiculous ease. The slowly run affair just allowed to be put to sleep by Shinn, peel out on the turn and use her turn of foot to comfortably beat her rivals. The only query I have is if they make it a truly run 2400m. That could take the sprint out of her and leave her vulnerable. But in saying that, she has many, many lengths of class on these and that should be enough to get her home.
Big Danger: Rock Diva (Best Odds: $18.00) was the real eye catcher behind Arabian Gold in the Roses, making up significant ground between runners on a day where it was hard to make ground from the rear. She will be the one suited by a strong tempo if it eventuates and will no doubt savage the line better than Arabian Gold. The price difference is a bit excessive I feel, so I’d definitely have something on Rock Diva in case it is a fast run Oaks.
Roughie: Big watch and a huge amount of respect for Sancerre (Best Odds: $13.00), a stablemate of Rock Diva. She lacks the class of Rock Diva, but there is definitely a sense of timing about her. Bolted in at the Sunny Coast over the mile, then went around like a young drunk at Ipswich yet toyed with them. The bigger track and extra distance looks ideal and is another you should have something on each way.

$250 Arabian Gold Free Bet

Race Eight (16:20) : Magic Millions QTC Cup 1300m Form Guide

Back Me: The kiwis have produced another street corner tip for a big race here, this time courtesy of four year old Sacred Star (Best Odds: $4.20). Went through his grades quite impressively during the Summer back in New Zealand, culminating with slashing back to back placings at Group l level. First up here, but trialled like a star recently at Doomben and from all reports, you won’t find a better looking worker at the moment. If the wraps are right, he’ll go very close here, and in the big one next week
Big Danger: Dances On Stars (Best Odds: $13.00) was excellent I thought in the BRC Sprint given he was wide, midfield in a race where the front two just dominated and cleared away to fight it out. He peeled very wide yet made up ground on the leaders to run a super third. He only needs normal luck to go very close here.
Roughie: Doubtfilly (Best Odds: $16.00) was one of only a handful to make ground from the back a fortnight back on Doomben Cup Day when coming from near last to run third to Pure Purrfection in the Bribie. She can be quite hard to follow, but on that first up run, she has to rate as a serious chance.

$250 Sacred Star Free Bet

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Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 2, 8, 12

Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 10, 14, 15

Leg Three: 1

Leg Four: 2, 3, 5, 7, 9, 12

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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.