Public holiday racing this Monday in Sydney will take place at Warwick Farm for an eight race card. The weather is fine, the track is good (3) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race One (13:15) : Hyland Race Colours Handicap (78) 1600m:
Back Me: 4 Meiner Freccia (Bet Now: $2.80) was an alarming drifter in betting when resuming at Hawkesbury but nobody told the horse as he produced a brilliant finish to win and win with a bit in reserve. Can only improve off that and I think he is one of the better bets on the program.
Big Danger: 2 Takewing (Bet Now: $3.50) had been bursting to win a race for some time and he did it in style last time out at this track when ridden a treat by Kathy O’Hara. I think now he has the win on the board, he can go right on with it.
Roughie: 3 Crosley Hotshot (Bet Now: $6.00) comes through that Takewing race where he was back in the ruck and just never really got into the contest in what was a plain run. He is better than that and the small field may aid his cause. Definite winning chance on best form.
Race Two (13:50) : TAB Handicap 1300m:
Back Me: 12 Sparkle (Bet Now: $3.70) sat on speed over 1400m here last time out and she gave a really good kick on the turn but just tired late when fourth to Zenalicious, who of course came out to win a Stakes race, so the form reads well and she should get the sweet trip from the gate.
Big Danger: 5 Medaile (Bet Now: $5.50) has been freshened up since failing on a wet track at Canterbury where she struggled to pick her feet up. That break looks to have done her the world of good based on a nice trial at Randwick recently where she went through the motions under a hold. McDonald steers, so she’s a threat.
Roughie: 7 So Splendid (Bet Now: $9.50) is the watch horse. First starter for Chris Waller, this daughter of Savabeel is well bred and has been tuned up for this with a couple of quiet barrier trials. Hovering at around the $13 mark currently. Just waiting to see what the market does and whether or not there is a push.
Race Three (14:25) : McGrath Estate Agents Handicap 1300m:
Back Me: 6 Raise An Army (Bet Now: $2.90) ran over this distance at Kembla Grange last time out where he had the soft run off the speed and presented to win but just bumped into one better on the day in Skillful. Gets a good gate here and McDonald steers. Hard to beat.
Big Danger: 10 Tivoli Street (Bet Now: $6.50) ran over 1200m on Newcastle Cup Day where she sat on speed most of the way and kicked hard but was no match when third to the heavily backed Reach For Heaven. That should toughen her right up for this.
Roughie: 1 Al Hamees (Bet Now: $23.00) is a first starter trained by John Thompson and to be steered by Tye Angland. First trial was poor, but he wasn’t too bad next time out at Randwick when running third. Needs to improve to threaten, but perhaps one for exotics.
Race Four (15:05) : Tab.com.au Handicap 1000m:
Back Me: Really keen to see how 5 Onerous (Bet Now: $2.35) runs here. Former Team Hawkes galloper now under the care of Chris Waller and we know the record the an has with tried horses. Loved the way this horse closed off in a Randwick trial behind Stakes winner and Group l performer Artistry. He has a very good first up record and I am confident he can get the job done.
Big Danger: 6 Mr Manhattan (Bet Now: $3.40) is a talented gelding that is first up for local trainer Joe Pride. On his day he is very good, but from a punting perspective, he is a nightmare. Beaten as a $1.55 chance and $2.70 at his last two spells before a break. Liked the way he trialled here last week behind Furnaces, he flies fresh and loves racing on his home track.
Roughie: 3 Fine Mist (Bet Now: $6.50) resumed in the Sheraco and was one of many that just couldn’t get into the race from the back, plus I don’t think she is quite up to that level at this stage of her prep. This looks more her go and three of her six career wins have come at this track.
Race Five (15:40) : #theraces Handicap (81) 2200m:
Back Me: Going to give 1 Shards (Bet Now: $3.20) another look here. He ran over the Randwick mile last time out and just couldn’t get into the race from the back when down the track behind Fabrizio. Up to 2200m looks perfect, and this is a big, big drop in grade. If ever he is going to win another race, this is it.
Big Danger: Richard Collett produced a brilliant training performance to get 9 Hot Mustard (Bet Now: $13.00) to win first up over 2100m last week, sitting on speed throughout and fighting on very strongly to get the job done. He did run well in town last prep and comes here with upside.
Roughie: 7 Bring Luck (Bet Now: $8.00) ran over 1800m at Rosehill last time out and he made up solid ground late to run fourth to Antonio Giuseppe, who of course franked the form next time out. If he got a wet track here, he’d be on top, but despite that, he has the right form.
Race Six (16:15) : Pro-Ride Handicap (72) 1000m:
Back Me: 7 Twist Tops (Bet Now: $4.80) is the one I just kept coming back to. Very talented three year old filly that resumes for Kris Less after a successful two year old season, where she ran some cracking races in high class events. Loved her trials leading in and if she brings her best, she wins.
Big Danger: 9 Old Man Sam (Bet Now: $11.00) is a Kembla based sprinter trained by Mick Tubman who is building up an impressive record. He bolted up last time in on his home track when controlling the race from the front and dashing when asked. Bowman on is a good lead.
Roughie: 10 Realise Potential (Bet Now: $16.00) is a former John Thompson galloper now with Joe Pride and he could be the knockout runner at odds. He has really looked the part in a couple of barrier trials, going through his gears nicely under minimal pressure. We know the record Warwick Farm trained runners have on their home track, and he draws perfectly to get cover and ambush late.
Race Seven (16:55) : TAB Rewards Handicap (78) 1400m:
Back Me: 4 Labdien (Bet Now: $11.00) is on the back up from Wednesday at Rosehill where she got back in the run and really just had too much to do behind Cry For Peace. Bowman jumps back on and I think getting away from Rosehill may help her cause. Giving her another chance.
Big Danger: 2 Circular (Bet Now: $10.00) resumed in the Hurricane during the Newcastle Carnival and she closed off hard to run third to proven city performer Supreme Effort. This looks more ideal for her and second up last time in she bolted up in what turned out to be a hot form race.
Roughie: 11 Zoumagic (Bet Now: $17.00) ran over 1200m at Randwick last time out and was okay I thought in a strong race behind Denpurr. Don’t think she is Saturday class, so this is her level I suspect. Doubt she can win, but I’ll certainly include her in exotics.
Race Eight (17:35) : Schweppes Handicap (78) 1400m:
Back Me: 14 No Doubt (Bet Now: $3.10) comes through the Denpurr race at Randwick where he just had no luck at all in the straight when appearing to have plenty to offer. The good part was when he did get clear and Williams gave him a flick, he really attacked the line. Looks the only serious danger to Torpenhow.
Big Danger: 9 Royal Tudor (Bet Now: $6.50) was given a tough first up assignment in the Cameron and was made tougher when he was wide no cover for the trip. Under the circumstances, his effort was very good. This looks more his level and he potentially could be a threat.
Roughie: 1 Our Boy Nicholas (Bet Now: $16.00) is a former Toby Edmonds galloper now with Peter Robl. He comes through the Ballina Cup where he got a long way back in the run and closed off hard late behind the proven city performer Yoho, and it was an afternoon where making up ground was a difficult assignment. He’s certainly good enough to be a force here.
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 14 No Doubt
NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 7 Twist Tops
VALUE: Race Seven Number 4 Labdien
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 9
Leg Two: 7, 9, 10
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4, 11
Leg Four: 14
$50 Investment= 55.55% of the dividend if successful
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