31/8/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield, Memsie Stakes day

Group l racing returns to Caulfield this Saturday where it is Memsie Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

Memsie Stakes 🏆: View the Memsie Stakes Field

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Tricky race but going the way of 1 Naval Warfare (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS). I thought he was quite good first up at Flemington behind Kentucky Breeze before going to the 2040m at the Valley four weeks ago where it was a clear advantage to be on speed/rail and he was back with the big weight and just had no hope in a total forgive. Gets weight relief, fitter, up to 2400m, firmer footing…I can see him running a cheeky race.

3 Alfarris (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) looks one of the hardest to beat. I think he was a pass mark first up four weeks ago over the mile at Moonee Valley given he was first up over an unsuitable trip and it was a day where it was difficult to make significant ground from the back. Gets up to a more ideal trip now and the depth is nowhere near as strong. Looks a leading contender.

2 US Army Ranger (Bet Now: $17.00 TOP ODDS)…where is he at? If he brought his best, he’d spank these. Just not sure how he’s going but out to an ideal trip, have to give him a chance. He’s had two runs in Australia. Down the track in the 2017 Melbourne Cup then was midfield over the 2040m at the Valley last year behind Trap For Fools. That’s A1 form for a race like this…will he be ready?

Looks a really good race for the Team Hawkes trained mare 12 Dawn Dawn (Bet Now: $8.50 TOP ODDS). She had just one soft trial leading into her resumption at Rosehill a few weeks back and she tried really hard from off the pace but had to settle for a game second to the well backed Prime Candidate. You’d like to think she’ll improve big time off that and with a stack of upside, she’s hard to beat.

16 Diamond Effort (Bet Now: $4.40 TOP ODDS) has to be one of the hardest to beat. He was hard in the market when resuming over 1100m here two weeks ago and I thought he did a really good job in defeat behind the impressive all the way winner Pippie. He just got into a tricky spot from the gate and was never really a winning factor but closed off really well, suggesting 1200m with the run under the belt will be a good set up.

10 I’m Telling Ya (Bet Now: $31.00 TOP ODDS) is going really well at the moment for the Yargi camp but he just can’t quite crack it for a win. Bit disappointing two back down the Flemignton straight behind Ruban Bleu before backing up a week later over 1100m here and liked the way he found the line in an on pace dominated won impressively by Pippie. He goes in all multiples and could back him to place. Backing him to win though is another matter.

In the corner of 2 Music Bay (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS), who resumes for the Phillip Stokes stable. This mare hasn’t raced since scoring a tough on speed win in the Queen Of The South during the Adelaide Carnival over the mile. Form around her from the Autumn reads super and she has trialled well a couple of times in readiness for her return. Way I see it, she gets the drag over via Savapinski and potentially gets run of the race.

Does look a good race for the Danny O’Brien trained 4 My Pendant (Bet Now: $2.45 TOP ODDS). This mare was excellent fresh down the Flemington straight behind Sylvia’s Mother before stepping up to 1400m where she got the A1 steer from Olly and eventually got there near the peg, perhaps not being as effective on the bog track, so firmer footing here should suit and third up, should be hard fit.

1 Savapinski (Bet Now: $13.00 TOP ODDS) is a quality mare that was with the WaterBott team but is now in the Maher/Eustace camp. Hasn’t raced since Cup Day last year when down the track over 1400m behind Cool Passion. Has had nearly a year, switched stables and has had two trials in readiness for her return. Better suited over further, but has class on her side and 1400m first up tells me she’s forward.

Up to the 1700m should be ideal for the Hayes/Dabernig import 13 Super Titus (Bet Now: $9.50 TOP ODDS). Was disappointing in his lone run in the Autumn behind Antah. Spelled and resumed over 1400m at Flemington a few weeks ago where he sat off a reasonable tempo and found the line well behind Vinland. Like him up in trip, got upside and I think he’ll be suited better on firmer footing.

He wants further and likely needs the run, but I’m a big fan of 3 Steel Prince (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS), who has got his spot in the Melbourne Cup thanks to the narrow win in the Andrew Ramsden, his last start. Trialled last week at Cranbourne and though not really suited on wet ground, the last 50-75m was very good. Not sure he wants, but anticipating a very good pipe opener.

This is one of the harder assignments for 8 Guizot (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS) but you just can’t ignore gallopers that have a liking or love for a certain track/distance and Guizot at the 1600m-1700m here is dynamic, as seen when sprouting wings between runners to win two weeks back. Clearly more depth here, but he’s got hard fitness under the belt and a win wouldn’t shock.

Have always had time for 9 Missile Mantra (Bet Now: $4.50). She won her opening two starts to begin her career in the Autumn, including a win here in the Redoute’s Choice in a race where the form has been strong, likewise the maiden win prior. Comes here off the back of one soft-ish jumpout at Flemington, so perhaps may need the run, but looks to have a bit of class.

Looks to be good speed engaged and that will suit 4 Super Seth (Bet Now: $3.50), who looks a 1600m+ horse. Won his first two starts in impressive fashion prior to racing in the Anzac Day Stakes where he led and was the first horse beat, letting punters down as a short priced elect, but leading isn’t his go. He’ll sit off a hot speed here and be one of the strongest late. Only knocks are the trip being short, and the form around him isn’t reading great.

5 Peidra (Bet Now: $7.00) is 2/2 to start his career for the Hayes/Dabernig team and really that’s all you can do as a horse. Comes out of a really hot maiden when winning it on debut at Sale before going to Sandown where he was keen in the run but still had good change up speed late and was impressive in winning. Harder here, but I think with the genuine tempo, he’ll get his chance.

Is 4 Vega Magic (Bet Now: $2.00) the forgotten horse re Everest? His form the last 12-18 months has been suspect, but we’ve known for a while that he just wants dry ground and anything with give in it sees him struggle. His dry track form at a sprint trip is first class and his recent jumpout at Flemington showed me he’s a happy horse. If he brings his A Game, they won’t be beating him.

He’s nine years of age 1 Ball Of Muscle (Bet Now: $4.40) but he is a beauty and looks to have returned in really good order based on his recent trial win at Warwick Farm where he looked outstanding on speed and ran sharp time. First up specialist, loves racing at Caulfield and I doubt anything here will want to take him on for the lead. He’ll lead and me mighty hard to run down.

7 Crystal Dreamer (Bet Now: $17.00) is a fascinating runner. The Ellerton/Zahra team trains this bloke, who hasn’t raced for nearly 12 months since finishing down the track in the Chandler Macleod behind Land Of Plenty. Despite the long time off, he does have a pretty good fresh record and his recent jumpouts have been more than encouraging to the eye, so anticipating a decent run.

This will be a decent test to see just how good 13 Pippie (Bet Now: $2.60) is. She spanked them first up at Doomben, freshened up, then raced over 1100m here two weeks ago and produced one of the wins of the day, bolting up from the front under Melham and it was more like an 1100m track gallop. Harder here, up in trip, with more depth, but she’s got sustained speed and that will carry her a long way.

I’m definitely going to have something on 9 Fidelia (Bet Now: $11.00). This girl really came of age in the latter part of the Autumn, winning four on end before being tipped out. Better suited over a bit further, but she closed off with real purpose in a recent Cranbourne trial alongside Santa Ana Lane and could argue she went better than him. I think she’ll run a beauty fresh.

I reckon Patrick Payne has 10 Zizzis (Bet Now: $27.00) going well. Barnstorming win from off the pace two back at Sandown before going to the Lightning at Morphettville where she was far from disgraced behind a good one in Assertive Approach. Been given a little freshen and Billy Egan couldn’t have held her any slower in a recent Cranbourne trial win. Reckon she’ll run a beauty.

I think the obvious and the one to beat is 11 Alizee (Bet Now: $3.30). The latter stages of the ride from Bowman in the Missile first up polarised punters but what matters is that she won and that form was franked last Saturday in the Winx Stakes with Invincible Gem running very well. Already a Group l winner at the track/distance and has more brilliance compared to most of these, who have bigger fish to fry.

1 Hartnell (Bet Now: $6.50) can only run well. In any other era, he would be considered one of the all time greats. Three time Group l winner, 11 times placed at Group l level…he’s a champion. Would love to see him win another major and he’s certainly in the game here off the back of an excellent resumption in the PB Lawrence behind star mare Mystic Journey.

3 Humidor (Bet Now: $16.00) looks to have come back in really good order and for mine is not far off the mark when it comes to running a beauty first up. Hasn’t raced since the Cox Plate last year when running a brave third to Winx. Has had a really good break and have been encouraged by what I’ve seen in his two trials leading into his resumption. Does have class and a good record here.

This looks a really good race for 2 Iconoclasm (Bet Now: $10.00). Just put a line through the Aurie’s Star run from three weeks ago down the Flemington straight. The straight six isn’t his go, nor is a wet track, so a total forgive. 1400m on firmer footing back on a bending track with Olly aboard…gee it looks a really good set up and I’m keen on him in the get out stakes.

I thought 14 Antah (Bet Now: $7.00) got a definite pass mark first up in the Regal Roller here two weeks ago. He was near a good speed throughout and I just think sharp 1200m horses are a bit much for him but he was sound in defeat behind Begood Toya Mother. Has a really good second up and clearly the big key for him is getting out to his pet trip of 1400m. Hard to beat.

Doubt he wins, but I could easily have something small for the place on 11 Mighty Lucky (Bet Now: $61.00), who was formerly with Fred Cowell but is now under the care of Nathan McPherson, who hasn’t got a winner yet since returning from a disqualification. Think that will continue here, but this horse looks set for a good prep because I have loved the way he has trialled leading in, the best he has trialled throughout his career.

BEST BET: Race Nine Number 2 Iconoclasm

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 12 Dawn Dawn

LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 13 Super Titus

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 4

Leg Two: 9, 10, 11, 13

Leg Three: 1, 3, 5, 10, 11

Leg Four: 2

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