The Brisbane Carnival continues this Saturday with another bumper program, highlighted by the Group ll Victory Stakes (1200m). The weather forecast is for showers, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out 4.5 metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (12:03) : Windsor Management Insurance Brokers Handicap 2200m:
Back Me: 3 Maurus (Best Odds: $2.50) has been given a good freshen up since running over this track/distance in the Randwick City Stakes when a close up third to Libran, who has franked the form. Recent trial was a good tune up and stable is flying.
Big Danger: 1 Lock’s Legend (Best Odds: $4.20) is on the back up from racing last Saturday in the Tails Stakes (1600m) where he was a bit unlucky not to finish closer behind Bewhatyouwannabe. Back up to his pet trip and I like he is on the back up.
Roughie: 4 Perplexity (Best Odds: $8.50) is on the back up too from that race Lock’s Legend contested and he closed off strongly from near last on the turn. $10 is a good price for him I suspect given he will be on speed and as we saw last time in, he is a tough bugger to get past.
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Race Two (12:38) : Building Employees Redundancy Bribie Handicap 1050m:
Back Me: 6 Glenbawn Dame (Best Odds: $7.00) was a slight drifter in betting when resuming at Doomben but a lovely on speed steer from James Orman got the mare home to win and win quite impressively. On the fresh side and though her second up record isn’t too great, she’ll be up on speed again and prove hard to hold out.
Big Danger: 2 Into The Red (Best Odds: $7.50) creates plenty of interest here. This talented type hasn’t raced since finishing sixth in the Healy behind Dothraki. No trials leading in and he is 315 days between runs, but he can sprint well fresh and you always have to respect the stable.
Roughie: 8 Lady Jetsetter (Best Odds: $10.00) was well backed last start here and she didn’t let supporters down, leading all the way to win narrowly but impressively, aided by a lovely on speed steer from Matty McGillvray. Won’t have it as easy here, but she is in form and down in the weights.
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Race Three (13:13) : Construction Income Protection Handicap 1350m:
Back Me: 1 Fiery Heights (Best Odds: $4.00) ran over this track/distance a month back and toughed it out very strongly to get the job done narrowly but impressively. Recent trial at the Gold Coast was very encouraging and only has to overcome the horror draw to be a leading contender.
Big Danger: 7 Dee Nine Elle (Best Odds: $6.00) ran over this track/distance three weeks back and looked to have pinched the race but was nabbed late by Kebede, who franked the form by running well in a Stakes race last weekend. She’ll be on speed again and being fourth up now, she should be cherry ripe fitness wise.
Roughie: 12 Waltham (Best Odds: $34.00) absolutely savaged the line from near last on the turn to win at Ipswich a tick under three weeks back against the older horses. Only carries 51kg here, fitter and with the speed likely to be on, he can storm home late and ambush.
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Race Four (13:48) : Service Trades College Plate 1110m:
Back Me: 1 Hostwin Legend (Best Odds: $12.00) ran a brave fifth in the Kindergarten behind El Divino/Astern before breaking his maiden status in impressive fashion at Hawkesbury. Stable is having a really good run at the moment, gets Jimmy Orman aboard and he has the speed to overcome the wide barrier.
Big Danger: 7 Candika (Best Odds: $3.00) is the class runner engaged here. This filly hasn’t raced since racing a game third to Capitalist in the Magic Millions (1200m). Best form will be over further, and she will get back, but with the speed engaged here, she can really savage the line.
Roughie: 3 Waldo Waldorf (Best Odds: $41.00) looked a chance at odds when debuting in the Pierro Plate at Randwick but just found the class a bit rich when last to Group l performer Star Turn. He looked very good in a recent Hawkesbury trial and looks the big, big overs at $41.
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Race Five (14:27) : Ara Fire Handicap (85) 1630m:
Back Me: 5 Reckless Abandon (Best Odds: $2.20) is one of the form gallopers in Brisbane at the moment, winning three on the bounce with the last two coming at this track/distance. Been given a three week freshen up, draws well, well weighted…just looks the winner.
Big Danger: 1 Astronomos (Best Odds: $12.00) was on track towards racing in the Metropolitan (2400m) in the Spring but was injured and was tipped out. He has trialled twice leading in, and though his best form is over further, he has class.
Roughie: 8 Amexed (Best Odds: $67.00) is the value bet of the weekend for mine. He resumed over 1350m here a few weeks ago and ran on strongly late behind the well performed Col ‘N’ Lil. Down in the weights again, enormous upside and I am hoping the speed is on, which gives him every chance to finish off.
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Race Six (15:07) : National Fire Industry Association Victory Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: 1 Fell Swoop (Best Odds: $1.55) is a classy galloper for Matty Dale who was outstanding in defeat when second to the worlds best sprinter Chautauqua in the TJ Smith (1200m). That’s the best sprinting form you can get, draws well, WFA…$1.65 opening price looks generous.
Big Danger: 3 Artlee (Best Odds: $6.50) resumed in the Hall Mark (1200m) at Randwick and was the luckless runner engaged given he couldn’t really get clear of the pocket when appearing to be bolting. I am not sure Doomben is his track, and the speed map doesn’t read too great for him, but he is a class animal.
Roughie: 7 Knoydart (Best Odds: $6.50) looks the one at good odds here. There was a tip for him last start in the Hall Mark and he looked home but the photo went to the verdict of Music Magnate. Draws to get a soft trip off the hot speed and should take some beating.
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Race Seven (15:47) : Antec Gunsynd Classic 1630m:
Back Me: 4 Eagle Way (Best Odds: $14.00) resumed over 1400m at the Gold Coast a couple of weeks back and stormed home along the inside to run second to proven city performer Doughty, and the inside wasn’t the best ground. He strung together three impressive wins in the city prior to spelling and the scenario looks ideal for him here.
Big Danger: 14 Tap This (Best Odds: $7.00) was a solid first up winner at Wyong (Metro) before going to the Carr (1400m) at Randwick where she worked home alright late behind Yattarna. Crying out for further, which she gets here and Blake Spriggs remains on.
Roughie: 2 I’m Belucci (Best Odds: $11.00) ran over 2020m here five weeks back and looked as though he was going to burst through and win but had to settle for second to Emphasis. Being aimed towards the Derby, so look for him to flash late.
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Race Eight (16:23) : Pertronic Industries Plate (Class 6) 1350m:
Back Me: 7 Trubia (Best Odds: $2.70) does look the way to go but gee he looks rock bottom odds at $2.70. I marked him down as a lightweight Stradbroke contender after such an impressive first up win at Toowoomba and was very strong through the line. Can only see upside with him and only has to take care of the tough draw to go close.
Big Danger: 5 Lordag (Best Odds: $6.00) looks the betting proposition for me here. His effort first up behind Trubia was outstanding given he had to lump the weight and was back in the run and back near the inside, which probably wasn’t the spot to be. Gets a 1.5kg weight swing on that horse, better gate…how he opened $8 amazes me. He should be $5, perhaps shorter, perhaps the favourite.
Roughie: 1 Boris Badenov (Best Odds: $15.00) won impressively over this track/distance at the midweeks, albeit in a much easier race than this but he was still very good. Terribly weighted, and personally I think $13 is gross unders, but he draws a gate and is in winning form.
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BEST BET: Race Six Number 1 Fell Swoop
NEXT BEST: Race One Number 3 Maurus
VALUE: Race Four Number 1 Hostwin Legend
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8
Leg Two: 1, 3
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 14
Leg Four: 5, 7
$50 Investment= 29.76% of the dividend if successful
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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