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A strong nine race program has been assembled for Caulfield on Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out nine metres for the entire circuit.

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Race 1. (11:40) Catanach's Jewellers Hcp 1100m

Back Me

Tricky race for the juveniles here with no real standouts. I’ll lean the way of 11 Island Joy (Bet Now: $4.60 TOP ODDS) for the Ellerton/Zahra stable. Debuted over 1000m at Cranbourne when on speed throughout under Jamie Kah and despite wanting to lay in under pressure in the straight, the Hinchinbrook filly was far too good for her rivals. Stable has had a good run with their babies and this girl looks more than capable.

Danger

6 Crystal Chief (Bet Now: $4.60 TOP ODDS) is a son of Written Tycoon for the Ellerton/Zahra team that had good specking at a price when debuting down the Flemington straight two weeks back and if you were on, gee it was an ugly watch. Got badly held up a vital stage and clearly should have gone close to winning when a narrow third to Divine Caprice. You’d assume he’ll come on from that and rates highly.

Long Shot

5 Nantucket (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) should be suited up to 1100m for Levi Kavanagh. Just couldn’t quite finish the race off on debut when a narrow second to Our Playboy before going down the Flemington straight where he got off the speed and chased strongly, just failing to pick up Divine Caprice. Has done nothing wrong in both runs and I think the extra 100m suits.

Race 2. (12:15) Super Box Race Day Hamper-bm78 1100m

Back Me

It wasn’t hard to find the run of 6 Paul’s Regret (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) from Caulfield and how unlucky she was. She goes close to winning with a clear path instead of being held up and producing a fast finishing fourth to Barbie’s Fox. Little query back to 1100m, but off that effort, I think with a conservative steer, she’ll take beating against these.

Danger

3 Broadwayandfourth (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS) is a query back to 1100m even with the solid form, but just needs to show more early interest. He’s got an awful racing pattern of getting back to near last and spotting those in front too much head start. That was the case at Flemington last time out but was really good late when fourth to Debt’N’Deficit. Fast run 1100m should be ideal and is hard to beat I feel.

Long Shot

Back to 1100m I do like for 8 Felicia (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS). Resumed over this trip at Caulfield and was very good when third to Lankan Star before going to 1200m when on speed and tiring late when fifth to Barbie’s Fox. She does seem more effective over the short course so back to 1100m I do like and should take some beating.

Race 3. (12:50) Neds (bm78) 1200m

Back Me

10 Leiter (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) back to 1200m is a definite tick. He ran over 1400m at Caulfield three weeks ago when getting the lead to himself and controlled things very nicely, but he couldn’t quite see out the seven furlongs on he testing ground when third to Viral. Like him back to 1200m and he’ll be strong at the end with that 1400m run under the belt.

Danger

6 Ruban Bleu (Bet Now: $4.00 TOP ODDS) is on the seven day back up for the Hayes/Dabernig team since racing down the straight at Flemington last Saturday when chasing from off the speed and was pretty solid late I thought when fourth to Alfa Oro, who would be odds on against these. Back up to 1200m, hard fit, back to a bending track, he’s likeable.

Long Shot

2 Kalashani Lad (Bet Now: $26.00 TOP ODDS) is a Terry Walsh trained nine year old that resumes. Contested some really good races when last in work, much stronger than what he faces here, and keep in mind first up last prep he ran a close up fourth to Viridine. He’s big odds and I’m saying is a knockout chance.

Race 4. (13:30) Nick Johnstone Real Estate Hcp 1600m

Back Me

4 Right You Are (Bet Now: $2.80 TOP ODDS) is heading in the right direction for the Price/Kent yard. Ended last prep on a high when spanking them at Sandown to break the maiden tag. Spelled, resumed against the older horses at Werribee and despite taking a little while to get into his work, he was very strong late and drew clear to win. Good test here, but confident he measures up.

Danger

2 Librate (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS) is a So You Think filly who is doing a really good job at the moment. Narrow but tough on speed win two back at Ballarat before going to the Flemington mile where she did it tough but was simply too good for them on the line, just. Not sure what upside is to come, but just has to hold her form to be a key threat.

Long Shot

3 Regardsmaree (Bet Now: $14.00 TOP ODDS) is a Henry Dwyer trained son of So You Think that steps up to the mile and I think will be suited. He ran over 1400m at Flemington two weeks ago and found the line pretty well despite wanting to lay in when third. Home track and extra ground I do like.

Race 5. (14:05) Neds Same Race Multi (bm90) 1200m

Back Me

Hoping that this Caulfield deck improves as the week progresses because I’m going the way of 3 Tahitian Dancer (Bet Now: $13.00), who wants a dry surface, or Soft5 at worst. Was keen on her running well in the Wangoom at Warrnambool but she was four and five wide throughout and on a very sticky track, she couldn’t let down. Back to Mares grade, her best is clearly better than these.

Danger

7 Goddodin (Bet Now: $3.70) is racing so honestly for James Cummings but she’s just struggling to see out the 1200m after being given every chance to see it out her past couple. Latest of those runs came down the Flemington straight where Rawiller rode the perfect race on her. All bar won the race, getting bloused late by Jamaican Hurry. She’ll go close again. Just needs to find that little bit more.

Long Shot

9 Queen Annabel (Bet Now: $23.00) is a threat here. Jumped to 1200m from 1000m at Flemington and didn’t mind the way she finished her race off behind Jamaican Hurry, beaten just under three lengths. Now she has that 1200m run under the belt, should hold her in good stead, and she’s much better on a turning track.

Race 6. (14:45) Le Pine Funerals Hcp 1100m

Back Me

Going for a throw at the stumps via 10 Reward With Return (Bet Now: $35.00) for the in form Nathan Hobson team. He has got this old boy flying at the moment, winning two of his past three, with sustained speed from the front being a key reason for those wins. With Callow aboard, suspect he’ll jump, run and give them something to chase.

Danger

5 Tavisan (Bet Now: $7.00) should be suited back on firmer footing for the Price/Kent stable. Comes through the News Girl race from three weeks ago when near the speed throughout and gave a kick under Jamie Kah, but she elected to save ground nearer the inside, but that was quicksand and she couldn’t finish it off. Better suited here and Melham rides him very well.

Long Shot

11 Never Again (Bet Now: $13.00) is a chance here for sure. Resumed somewhat out of his depth at Caulfield when taking on open class/blacktype class gallopers and I thought he was far from disgraced in defeat behind News Girl. That proved he can measure up to this level and his form from last prep doesn’t read too bad for this kind of event.

Race 7. (15:25) Neds Money Back Odds (bm84) 1600m

Back Me

8 No Say In It (Bet Now: $7.50) is a talented animal for Lindsey Smith that had his first run in Victoria on a near bottomless track at Ballarat. Sat near the back in the small before peeling wider and took a while to wind up, but was really good late, just missing out on picking up Eugene’s Forest. Back on firmer footing I do like and stable is starting to fire again.

Danger

There’s more to come with 6 Sikorsky (Bet Now: $1.95) and he can win again. Olly gave him an absolute peach at Flemington two weeks ago, putting him into a lovely spot just off the speed before angling into clear air upon straightening and the race was over 300m out. He’s been enormous this prep and can go right on with it.

Long Shot

If we get some cushion in the track, more than happy to speck 1 Liapari (Bet Now: $17.00) at odds. He had jumped out super prior to resuming over the mile at Caulfield where he was three and four wide throughout and looked a beaten horse on the turn, but stayed on and picked up late to run a really good second to the in form So Si Bon. Think he can only improve off that and rates highly here, provided the track has give.

Race 8. (16:05) Vale Kevin O'brien (bm84) 1400m

Back Me

The safe option is 12 Jumbo Ozaki (Bet Now: $3.40) for the Danny O’Brien camp. Six weeks between runs since winning impressively at this track/distance, with the ride from Williams being a major reason why he took the race out. Form out of that race has bee strong and despite the break between runs, he has a bit of quality about him.

Danger

9 Viral (Bet Now: $9.50) is doing a really good job at the moment for Danny O’Brien. Loved the way he knuckled down to win two back at Sandown before going to the Caulfield 1400m three weeks back where he had to dig in under Williams but found plenty and was too good, just. He’s racing so well this prep and is hard to beat against these.

Long Shot

13 Kaplumpich (Bet Now: $8.50) looks back on track. Thought the run was just fair two back behind Jumbo Ozaki in a fast race. Then raced three weeks ago and closed off strongly, just failing to pick up Viral in a tight go to the line. He is the sort of horse that once he finds form, he holds it, so giving him serious respect against these.

Race 9. (16:38) Neds Toolbox Hcp 2000m

Back Me

2 Carzoff (Bet Now: $12.00) is knocking on the door to get a win on the board this prep and I think he gets his chance here. Was very good in defeat two back at Sandown behind Rising Red before going to Flemington where he got a fair way back in the run but really liked the way he finished his race off behind Super Titus. Hard to beat in a winnable race.

Danger

8 Mahamedeis (Bet Now: $5.50) is another that is ready to win. Was good from off the pace two back behind So Si Bon before stepping up to 2000m at Flemington where he was back and wide but loomed and surged, but couldn’t quite finish it off when second to Super Titus. Ready to win and on his home track, he’s a leading chance.

Long Shot

9 So You Win (Bet Now: $16.00) is one horse here who will love getting onto firmer footing. His two runs back from a break have come on seriously testing ground and he’s failed to fire a shot each time, so just forgive and forget he went around. Much better suited on top of the ground and last time he was on a dry deck, ran a very good fourth in the Cranbourne Cup.

Best Bets & Quaddie Tips

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 8 No Say In It

NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 4 Right You Are

LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 10 Reward With Return

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 5, 6, 10, 11

Leg Two: 6, 8

Leg Three: 1, 9, 12, 13

Leg Four: 2, 6, 8, 9

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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