30/3/2024 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Australian Cup day

A bumper ten race program has been assembled for Flemington on Saturday for Australian Cup Day. Weather is fine, track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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I was keen to be against 1 My Bella Mae (Bet Now:  $SP.00) last time at 1200m but I love her back to 1100m, and back in depth, she is one I am quite keen on. She ran over 1200m at Caulfield last time when bombing the start and was keen in the run, which ensured she was going to struggle at 1200m. Back to 1100m, down the straight, 3kg claim…rates highly big time.

4 Rich Fortune (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is capable with her best. She ran two weeks back in the Maurice McCarten at Rosehill where she got back to near last in the run and in an on speed dominated race, she was never a winning factor but she kept finding the line behind Red Card. Back to this level, she appeals.

2 Lempicka (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has found winning form for Team Keys and she can certainly go on with it. She ran a fortnight back in the Gold Comet at Caulfield where she had a suck run behind the speed before McDougall angled her clear and she let down with purpose to win quite well. Improvement to come and off a win, she commands respect.

3 Midtown Boss (Bet Now:  $SP.00), I think, picks himself. He has been racing really well without winning of late, his latest run being at The Valley behind Johnny Rocker when a narrow second, and of course that horse came out and ran second to Imperatriz in the William Reid, so that form clearly reads well for a 78. Zahra on, drawn out, like him.

9 Ivan’s Hero (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to have returned in super order and should take a power of beating for Chris Waller. This guy resumed over 1200m at Flemington a few weeks ago where he was nearer the inside of the pack and he kept chasing, for a few strides looking the winner, but had to settle for a narrow second to Big Watch. Fitter, he appeals.

10 Mr Moppett (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has run well down the straight previously and is one for exotics. He ran at the Caulfield Heath meeting last time out where he got into a decent spot just off the speed and tried hard but was no match for them and had to settle for a fourth to Plus Fours. Doubt he wins, but can run top four.

1 Forgot You (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a talented animal for Busuttin/Young that resumes. This guy is first up, having not raced since the Northerly at Ascot when a tired horse, finishing down the track behind Dom To Shoot. He was wide no cover throughout so a forgive but he’s been given a good break and has jumped out well leading in.

7 Arran Bay (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a beauty for Phillip Stokes. Tough on speed win here two back before going to Caulfield when just off the speed and he tried his guts out but just couldn’t quite finish the job behind First Immortal. He has that 1600m run under the belt now, which should hold him in good stead.

6 Galeron (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a very interesting runner. Formerly with Charles Hills, he now finds himself with Annabel Neasham. He hasn’t raced since the Golden Eagle when finishing down the track behind Obamburumai after getting back to near last. Given a good break, trialled well enough and his best overseas form is more than good enough.

1000m form for a 1200m race is fraught with danger but with 4 Ameena (Bet Now:  $SP.00), the beauty with her is that she’s had two 1000m runs so that should hold her in good stead for 1200m. I think she has a few lengths on these and I think she wins this and stamps herself as nearly top seed for the Percy Sykes. Keen and is a good thing IMO. $2+ she’s a bet.

8 Yes Lulu (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one of the key chances. Ciaron Maher trained filly that comes through the Redoute’s Choice from two weeks ago at Caulfield where she was one of the first off the bit when chasing but she kept on and was pretty good in defeat behind Bold Bastille. Think she will love getting to 1200m and overall, this isn’t a deep race IMO.

5 Flyer (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should take beating here for Jason Warren. She ran three weeks ago in the VRC Sires over 1400m here where she tried hard but I just felt that 1400m was a bridge too far for her behind Traffic Warden, who arguably should have won the Golden Slipper. Back to 1200m and back to this level, she appeals.

6 Katsu (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a talented short course animal for Grahame Begg that resumes. This guy is first up, having not raced since Australia Day in the Adams when a solid fourth to Queman at Caulfield, who of course went on to win the Oakleigh Plate. He has won down the straight previously and went like a jet in a Cranbourne jumpout.

7 What You Need (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one of the more fascinating runners on the program. High class sprinter for Price/Kent that resumes and there has been talk from Price that the horse that we’ll be seen here is not the horse that was seen beforehand, where he looked top shelf, and his jumpout work indicates that. But…under race day pressure, he could be totally different. Have to watch the market and see how he parades.

8 Viviane (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness. Thought she was a bit on the plain side first up in the Rubiton before going to the Gold Comet when just off the speed and she tried her guts out but just couldn’t quite finish the job. She has upside, good racing style and is trained on the track. Definite improver.

12 See What I See (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a very progressive mare for Danny O’Brien and I see no reason why she can’t keep winning. She has really come of age this time in, winning 3/3, the latest being over 1800m at the midweeks at Caulfield Heath where her change up speed when asked by Shinn was something else and she gapped them. 2000m no issue, turn of foot, in form…hard to beat.

1 Lauding (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the only other winning hope. He’s heading in the right direction for Ciaron Maher after two sharp wins over 2040m at The Valley. Latest win saw him outside the speed before being clicked up and away he went for a dominant win. Tricky gate but hard to knock how well he’s racing.

13 Nishino Crescent (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks very one paced so I like him up to 2000m. He ran over 1800m at Caulfield Heath last time out where he didn’t show any real change up speed when asked but stayed on and was good in defeat when a close up fourth. Up in trip is ideal, maps to do no work…first four contender.

13 Estriella (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a star filly for Ciaron Maher and I think she’ll confirm that furthermore with another win here. She was an arrogant winner of the Inglis Sprint over 1200m here, leading throughout and gave nothing else a look in to win quite comfortably. Back to 1100m is fine, I think she’ll be much better when ridden with a sit and her tick over jumpout indicates she is humming.

2 I Am Unstoppable (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is very good when right so don’t drop off him. I was keen on him running well in the Lightning but he failed to fire and was very much on the plain side behind Imperatriz. Been given a break with this race in mind and his jumpout last week behind Estriella was strong enough. Market watch for sure.

15 Saltaire (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a very good filly for John O’Shea that resumes. She has only won the one race but that doesn’t reflect her true ability I feel. She resumes after a frustrating Spring where she placed in a host of Stakes races and ran really well without winning. Trial work has been strong and has run well down the straight previously.

7 Pride Of Jenni (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is fine at 2000m IMO and with her racing style, gee she is going to take some beating. Her win in the All Star Mile was out of this world. Vo Rogue would have been proud of the win. Sustained speed from the front and was never getting beat, looking the winner a long way out. She’ll lead this field and if this track is suiting those up/in, gee she’s going to take running down big time.

2 Cascadian (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a warhorse and an absolute beauty for James Cummings. He won the race last year and looks to be ticking along beautifully towards it again. He ran in the All Star Mile and while he was never beating Pride Of Jenni, he worked home with real purpose, looking like a horse that will love 2000m. Don’t pen him.

3 Vow And Declare (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is humming towards the this race IMO and is a great each way gamble. He resumed in the Peter Young several weeks ago and was very good late, closing off with purpose and just missing out on the win when a narrow second to Campionessa. Fitter and up in trip, hard to beat, especially with fresh legs and eating up a hard run ten furlongs.

This will be a proper test with Major Beel leading and rolling. That race shape sets up perfect for the Kiwi raider 13 Mark Twain (Bet Now:  $SP.00). He should have won the Auckland Cup last time but just got badly held up at the wrong time when wanting to build the revs. That Pakenham Cup was brutally run so I am binning that form here, Gear Up/Mankayan come through a barrier trial…I think Mark Twain is a good thing. Very keen.

7 Mankayan (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been strong this time in for Ciaron Maher and rates highly. He has finished runner up his past two, the latest being a fortnight back at Caulfield when on speed and giving a very good kick under Zahra but was nabbed right on the peg by Gear Up. Like him up in trip and I think with a more patient steer, a bunny to chase, he’s going to take beating.

1 Selino (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is capable with his best. Chris Waller trained stayer that ran down the track at Caulfield two weeks back behind Gear Up but the tempo was an absolute crawl and he just doesn’t have the speed in the legs to go with them. Like him up in trip, fitter…dangerous against these for sure.

3 Dashing (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to be in for a good prep. Aaron Purcell trained gelding that resumed at The Valley when back off the speed and kept finding the line without threatening in a good return behind a nice horse, Johnny Rocker. Better for the run, I think he becomes dangerous if he’s ridden with more intent early.

2 Rheinberg (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a very genuine animal for Team Hayes. He resumed at Ballarat where he was a noted drifter in betting and #They got it right. He loomed to win but couldn’t quite go on with it when second to Twin Perfection, a hard fit/in form galloper. Fitter and up in trip, he appeals.

10 He’s Our Bonneval (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a key chance. Busuttin/Young trains this gelding, who ran in the Arran Bay race from a few weeks back at Flemington. He was tardy away and got back off the speed. He did make up some ground but he was never a winning threat. Hard horse to catch but I am convinced he is racing well. Definite hope.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 4 Ameena

NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 13 Mark Twain

LONG SHOT: Race Ten Number 3 Dashing

Quaddie (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 13

Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 7

Leg Three: 13

Leg Four: 2, 3, 9, 10, 15

$50 Investment = 250% of the dividend if successful.

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