30/10/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Moonee Valley

An eight race card has been assembled for Moonee Valley on Friday night. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is good (4) and the rail is out five metres for the entire circuit.

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1600m maiden to kick off the meeting but I think there is one of the better bets on the program here in the shape of 7 Bobsled (Bet Now: $2.60), a Snitzel gelding for the in form Richard Laming team. Ran in a 1500m maiden at Mornington last time out and just got held up at the wrong stage of the race when wanting to build the revs. Got clear and really attacked the line, suggesting 1600m will be ideal. Gets Blinkers first time and Jamie Kah. That’s enough for me.

3 Orrong Road (Bet Now: $6.00) is bursting to win his maiden. Looked like it would come on Cranbourne Cup Day. Pat Moloney gave him a peach steer and looked the winner, but was bloused on the peg by Baglioni. Little query at a strong mile, but does no work from gate one and the form around him does read well for this.

2 Golden Able (Bet Now: $61.00) is a former kiwi for Simon Foster that made his Australian debut over 1400m at Hamilton. He got back in the run and was off the bit on the turn, but he picked up and was more than sound late I thought. $51+ for him whereas Captain Canuck is $5.50 and in that Hamilton race, there was around two lengths between them. He could be worth something very small each way at the price.

Bit surprised 2 Defence Force (Bet Now: $11.00) is well into double figures for this race. Hayes/Dabernig trained son of So You Think that debuted over 1200m at Kyneton. Had the perfect sit behind the speed but crabbed somewhat on the turn. Balanced up, took the front and he was strong to the line and through it in winning. He can sit off what looks a fast speed here and be strong late.

1 Deep Speed (Bet Now: $1.70) is a Team McEvoy trained son of Deep Field that comes to Melbourne off the back of a debut maiden win at Morphettville where he showed sustained speed from the wide gate to get the job done. There has been two winners to come out of it, but the runner up has since been beaten 10+ lengths as a $1.50 favourite at Gawler last week, so IMO, the form is mixed. He can win, but $2.20 is way too short.

7 Redneck Princess (Bet Now: $9.00) is another that can sit off the good speed and be strong late. This filly broke her maiden status at Echuca two back before going to Wodonga and bumping into a pretty smart one in the shape of Smart Design. Gets the 3kg claim for Maddy Lloyd and should get a soft run from the inside draw.

1 Montenegro Man (Bet Now: $8.50) looks to have the right form for this kind of race. Mark Kavanagh trained gelding that is several weeks between runs since racing in a fast run race at Caulfield over 1200m won by Ancestry, who has won twice since, so the form reads well. Good speed here, so can see him sitting back and finishing off hard late.

4 Pintoff (Bet Now: $6.50) is building a tidy little record for Richard Cully. Had a mini freshen up before racing over 1200m at Warrnambool where John Allen took control from the front and he was much too good for his rivals in a dominant display. Harder here, but gets the claim, barrier one and Neindorf has a few options from the gate.

8 Zoology (Bet Now: $21.00) has a good second up record and a soft gate, so $101+ for him seems a bit on the silly side. Resumed at Kyneton where he paraded like he would need the run and that is how it panned out. He can stalk Pintoff and follow that horse wherever it goes. I’ve seen worse rank outsiders, so a sneaky outside winning chance.

8 Wahine Toa (Bet Now: $3.60) will need luck from a tricky gate but Jamie Kah steers and she hasn’t really put a foot wrong this Spring. This mare was a real eye catcher first up at Geelong behind Serengeti before going to Cranbourne Cup Day where it was a sit/sprint, and she was just flat footed. Gets to a more ideal trip and has more upside than most.

4 Vividredsky (Bet Now: $3.40) looks the key and perhaps only other winning chance. Paul Preusker trains this gelding, who ran over 2400m on Geelong Cup Day last Wednesday and worked home strongly late when fifth to Reflect The Stars. I think when these 3000m races come around, he’ll come to the fore, but still, hard to beat over 2500m.

12 Eaton (Bet Now: $35.00) isn’t one of mine, but could certainly include in multiples. He was very brave in defeat last time out over 2000m at Wodonga when wide and doing work in the run, but fought on strongly when a close up third to The Boy Wonder. 2500m should be okay for him and does no work from the gate.

Hoping we can get double figures for 1 Our Gladiator (Bet Now: $7.00) because if so, think she’s a great each way gamble. Ran in the 955m here last Friday night when wide throughout and that sealed her fate behind Sartorial Splendor. From the gate, think Cartwright can find the inside first and hopefully hold up. If so, think she’ll run a big race.

2 Whipcracker Way (Bet Now: $2.15) is the big query here. Phillip Stokes and Alex Bryan have done a fab job with this gelding, winning 3/3 this time in. Last couple of wins though have come over 1200m, so back to 955m has to be a query, and not sure he can cross and find the fence. He can win, but he’s too short at $2.70.

Definite market watch with 3 Written Choice (Bet Now: $8.50), who resumes for Logan McGill. Hasn’t raced since Feb 28 over 1200m here when down the track behind Divine Mr Tycoon. Has had bone chips removed, been given a good long break and his recent jumpout win was encouraging, so will be interesting to see what the market does given he did hold the track record for this trip once upon a time.

The best version of 6 It’s Kind Of Magic (Bet Now: $3.40) would probably win this, but it is a real unknown as to where she is at. Went terrible in both runs last prep, but they were both on wet ground, and she doesn’t go a yard when her toe is in. Three jumpouts to get ready, so the grounding is there to run well fresh…I’d watch the market.

8 Hint Of Mint (Bet Now: $6.00) is the key threat. Andrew Noblet trained mare that resumes, having not raced since May 30 when finishing last at Caulfield behind a talented mare in Broadwayandfourth. Think this is a good kick off point for her, gets the 3kg claim for Will Price and draws to get three wide cover and launch late.

15 Screenager (Bet Now: $18.00) seems big odds here. James Cummings trained mare that resumed over 1000m here a month ago and didn’t get the rub of the green late. Not sure she wins, but should have finished closer. Tick over Flemington jumpout last Thursday was good to the eye in solid time, and this time last year she was a borderline Stakes class mare.

Think with a more conservative steer, 12 Tatalina (Bet Now: $3.20) will take some beating here. Team McEvoy trained mare that ran over 2400m at Bendigo last time out where Olly rode a positive race on her, making her lead, and she tried, but got a stitch late when third to Etna. Lands in a perfect spot from the gate, hard fit and in form.

9 Humble Pie (Bet Now: $5.50) is a Symon Wilde trained gelding that made his Australian debut over 1700m on Geelong Cup Day last Wednesday and was good in defeat I thought when fifth to the in form Serengeti, beaten just over a length. He’ll come right on from that and looks suited up to 2000m. Hard to beat for sure.

1 Feel The Rush (Bet Now: $51.00) can be a big improver here I feel. Ran third in the NZ Oaks in the Autumn before being sent to the Maher/Eustace camp. Made her Australian debut over the mile when down the track and in need of the run behind Sovereign Award. She’ll come on from that and does have a touch of quality. $51+ seems silly.

Think if 11 Bacchus (Bet Now: $5.00) can use the inside gate to advantage, he’ll take some beating in the get out. Chris Waller trained gelding that has had a mini freshen after racing at Bendigo back on September 16 when not getting a whole lot of luck late but by then he was probably a tired horse. Just hope he can hold a spot from the gate, and is a track/distance winner.

15 Trodaire (Bet Now: $10.00) is suited back up to the mile. Was good at the trip two back before coming back to 1400m on Horsham Cup Day and was okay late in defeat behind Pierro Belle. Is a track/distance winner himself and with the 3kg claim for Maddy Lloyd, he is well in at the weights, so think he has to be respected.

3 Okotoks (Bet Now: $16.00) is suited back up to the mile. Was good at the trip two back before coming back to 1400m on Horsham Cup Day and was okay late in defeat behind Pierro Belle. Is a track/distance winner himself and with the 3kg claim for Maddy Lloyd, he is well in at the weights, so think he has to be respected.

BEST BET: Race One Number 7 Bobsled

NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 14 Knowles

LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 1 Our Gladiator

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 7

Leg Two: 6, 8, 15

Leg Three: 1, 2, 9, 12

Leg Four: 1, 3, 11, 15

$50 Investment = 20.83% of the dividend if successful

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