30/10/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Rosehill, Festival Stakes day

I really like the look of 3 Chilliwack (Bet Now: $2.90 TOP ODDS) for James Cummings. I think he’s another that will continue the winning ways of Godolphin in these two year old races. This colt has had two trials in readiness for his debut, the latest coming over 800m at Warwick Farm when leading throughout and looked to go about his business really nicely, running good time relative to the morning. Happy to be in his corner.

1 Muntaseera (Bet Now: $1.95 TOP ODDS) has race experience on her side and that will carry her a long way towards victory. Debuted on Cup Day in the Ottawa and closed off pretty well despite being a bit green in the straight when second to Aryaaf. Has that run under the belt now and you’d assume she will be better suited on a bending track, so she’s hard to beat here against this lot.

2 Britain (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) is a son of Snitzel for Greg Hickman that is having start one. He trialled last Friday on his home track at Warwick Farm where he wasn’t knocked about and went on to win the trial in good fashion though the time was nothing flash relative to the morning, so in that regard, needs to improve, but he looks a good type with a good action.

I like 2 Pauper (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) here. The Jarvis stable has this guy absolutely flying at the moment. Resumed with a strong maiden win at Moruya, which has produced several subsequent winners. He then went to Nowra and was impressive again, beating up a field which had decent depth to it. He was an enigma last prep but this time in, he looks to be putting it all together.

5 Bullet Speed (Bet Now: $2.60 TOP ODDS) is a Matty Dunn trained gelding that was kept pretty safe in betting when resuming on Cup Day at Eagle Farm when on speed in a strongly run contest and just ran out of condition late when fourth to Lashoni, who was okay against the tempo last Saturday at Doomben. Bowman on, fitter and stable starting to find their groove again in these races.

14 Denesc (Bet Now: $15.00 TOP ODDS) isn’t the most reliable horse from a winning perspective for Danny Williams but she’s honest and is usually thereabouts, which was the case at Gundagai last time and worked home well to run second to Run Like A Rebel, who had a winning break on the turn. Can sit closer in the run from the gate and is a knockout chance.

I know it’s a Highway, but I think 9 Princess Cordelia (Bet Now: $3.10 TOP ODDS) is the best on the program. Mitch Beer has this mare flying. Gave them a spanking to win two back at Wagga before going to Gundagai where that camera angle was brutal for punters because it looked like she had won but the photo went the other way. Her run was enormous given she was back and had to make a sustained run. If she can hold leaders back/three back fence from gate one, she wins.

On face value, I think 1 Siege Warfare (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS) has been disappointing in two runs back from a spell, but he has run well at Highway level previously so giving him another chance. Was heavily backed first up over 900m at Newcastle but not much went right for him. He then went to Gosford and was okay without jumping up and down and probably expected a bit more. Third up from a break, hard fit now at 1200m on a big track, he gets his chance to show his best.

13 Refire (Bet Now: $34.00 TOP ODDS) has run well in Highways before and does have upside into this. He resumed on Goulburn Cup Day where he was back near last in the run on a day where those on speed were advantaged so he really had no chance and I’d just put a line through that run behind Ashton Blair. Tricky draw, but if the speed is on, he’ll be strong at the end.

I think 5 Suave (Bet Now: $4.40 TOP ODDS) can make it 3/3 for James Cummings. This son of Lonhro has looked very impressive all prep, going back to his trials. Debuted with a super win over 1300m at Hawkesbury before going to the Wyong 1350m and was impressive, drawing clear like a nice horse. He’s heading in the right direction and I’m confident he can measure up here.

3 Coterie (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) finds a winnable race here, but it’s been over a year since he has won and that’s the concern with him here. Was three weeks between runs when racing over 1200m at Newcastle a fortnight back and worked to the line pretty well off a moderate speed set by the eventual winner Burning Crown. Up to 1300m on the home track, he can take this out.

9 Brazilica (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) is a Chris Waller trained mare that was a notable drifter in betting when resuming under the lights at Canterbury where she sat just off a hot speed before putting pay to the leaders and looking home, but was nabbed near the peg by Heaven On Earth. I think race fitness and that hot tempo beat her in the end. Hard to beat here.

13 Roman Typhoon (Bet Now: $16.00) is a knockout chance at odds, especially if they go silly in front. Just ran out of condition fresh at Muswellbrook over 900m when second to Clear The Beach before going to the 1100m at Canterbury when back off a fast speed and held up for a few strides but picked up and was really good late. Has run well in town and I think he’s one you can back each way.

4 Invictus Salute (Bet Now: $4.80) is on track to win one of these and it could well be here. Just looked in need of the run fresh at Randwick behind Agent Pippa before sitting on speed three weeks ago at Rosehill and she gave a really good kick under Dolan, but the mare just had no answers for the class and brilliance of Lucicello, who was far too good. Beat the rest comfortably and that looks the right form.

8 Something Fast (Bet Now: $8.50) is a progressive son of Smart Missile for Anthony Cummings that resumes. This five year old hasn’t raced since May 18 over 1400m here when producing a brilliant finale from off the speed to win impressively and did beat the likes of Asterius, so that reads very well for a 78, and though he brings one soft trial leading in, he’s a big watch.

Bludger of a race. If he’s long odds, I’ll have something small e/w on 10 High Bridge (Bet Now: $13.00), who is first up for Chris Waller, having not raced since July 20 at Flemington when down the track behind a good one in Lord Belvedere, but was at the end of a long prep and looking for the paddock. Closed off okay in a recent Warwick Farm trial and does no work from the gate.

12 House Of Cartier (Bet Now: $3.30) is a John Sargent trained mare who was primed to win two weeks ago at Newcastle after a freshen up and a lovely trial, and the bets were landed, as Avdulla put her into the right spot and she was too good for Sir Pippin. Up to 2000m is no issue for her, has room for improvement and this is a very winnable race.

6 Black On Gold (Bet Now: $11.00) may need one more, but I reckon he’s on track. Chris Waller trains this galloper, who contested the Ladies Day Cup at Hawkesbury when back off the pace and never really a winning factor but loved the way he found the line and produced good late splits. Up to 2000m suits…just concerned he may need one more.

9 Live And Free (Bet Now: $15.00) is a big improver here. He resumed in the Hunter in a race dominated on speed by Savatiano, so those behind really had no chance, including this guy, but I liked the way he found the line in defeat. Tempo should be more genuine this time around, hopefully, and can sit closer in the run from a good gate.

The forecast is for rain on Saturday and if it does, I think 10 Bobbing (Bet Now: $4.80) wins, but even on a dry deck, I still think he’s one of the hardest to beat. Was outstanding first up in the Kosciuszko before going to the 1300m at Newcastle two weeks ago and worked home strongly late behind Into The Abyss. Crying out for more ground and a wet track. He gets the former, and if he gets the latter, it’ll take a good one to hold him out.

7 Siren’s Fury (Bet Now: $19.00) has such an awful racing pattern, but she’s going to pick up a race like this if she runs up to the first up effort in the Hunter behind Savatiano. Was back near last in the run and once the Godolphin mare got it cheap mid race, she was always going to win and those behind had no chance, the late splits of Siren’s Fury were great. Fitter and up to 1500m are two big ticks, and if we get a drop of rain, that will help her more.

Trials aren’t everything, but just can’t ignore the way 9 Chauffeur (Bet Now: $20.00) trialled at Hawkesbury last week. He led all the way under Rachel King over 1000m and absolutely smashed the clock, running sub 59 for the 1000m and his last 600m was 32.54, doing it under not that much pressure. If he runs up to that, I think he’ll only run well here.

1300m back to 1100m isn’t the best of set ups for 1 Bon Amis (Bet Now: $4.80), but his Rosehill 1100m record is outstanding. He resumed in the Hunter at Newcastle and was very good in defeat behind Savatiano given he was first up at 1300m against some very good horses. This looks a considerable drop in depth for him. Just 1300m back to 1100m is the only knock.

2 Passage Of Time (Bet Now: $27.00) is a Northern Meteor gelding for Joe Pride that resumes. This guy had a very solid Autumn/Winter, with several wins put on the board in impressive fashion and beat some handy runners. He’s a horse who can sprint well fresh and I reckon has had a decent enough grounding in readiness for his return with two trials under the belt.

He may want one more, but big track and good speed I’m thinking 4 Matowi (Bet Now: $15.00) will be running well here. He resumed over 1400m at Rosehill three weeks ago and it was just an ugly watch if you were on. Got badly held up and was pretty much a barrier trial, but his late splits were quite good. Fitter and up in trip, I think he’ll run a beauty at odds.

5 Miss Redoble (Bet Now: $6.50) is hard to beat here. Was close up in the Ladies Day Cup at Hawkesbury behind Cellarman before racing over 1400m at Newcastle a fortnight back when off the speed and trying hard with the big weight but had to settle for a narrow second to Pinup Miss. Has struggled in town in the past, but that last run was at metro level and she ran a beauty, so off that, she’s a key chance.

6 Our Winnie (Bet Now: $23.00) has returned in really good order for the Greg McFarlane team. This mare resumed with a closing second to Into The Abyss at Warwick Farm before racing over the mile at Eagle Farm four weeks ago and working home well enough late in the piece behind Bargannon. If the forecast for rain later in the week is right and it gives this track a hint of juice, she’s right in the mix.

BEST BET: Race Three Number 9 Princess Cordelia

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 3 Chilliwack

LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 13 Roman Typhoon

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 4, 5, 6, 10, 12

Leg Two: 7, 9, 10, 14

Leg Three: 1, 2, 7, 9

Leg Four: 1, 4, 5, 6, 12

$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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