3/11/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Melbourne Cup day

The Flemington Carnival continues on Tuesday, highlighted of course by the ‘race that stops a nation’, the Melbourne Cup (3200m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out 2m for the entire circuit.

Melbourne Cup 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Melbourne Cup

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1 Ingratiating (Bet Now: $1.80 TOP ODDS) on top in the opener. James Cummings trained of Frosted that debuted at this track/distance back on October 3 and he was far too good for a sharp debut winner just a week prior in General Beau. Relative to the day, he ran very good time and even though it’s early days, he’s been the best juvenile to race in Melbourne. Tick over jumpout last Thursday was a lovely piece of work and I think he’s too good for them.

The early shoppers have singled out 7 Marine One (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS) for the race. Lloyd Kennewell trained first starter that jumped out solid enough recently at Caulfield and looked to go about his business nicely. Already $5 into around $3.20, which I do find surprising. Runs well, but I think you’ll get better come jump time.

8 Own The Night (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS) is an Astern colt for the Maher/Eustace camp that is on debut. He looked solid enough in a recent jumpout and we know the stable have already had a sparkling start to the season with their juveniles. Stable finds Bowman to steer, draws to get clear air from the outset and I think is value.

2 Finance Tycoon (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS) is a son of Written Tycoon that showed good early speed in the 900m race here at the midweeks and he battled away pretty well, but clearly no match for General Beau. Start one to start two, should improve, but enough to beat Ingratiating? I’m saying no, but he’ll be around the mark.

Class will carry 2 Joviality (Bet Now: $3.00 TOP ODDS) a long way. Just didn’t run the mile out two back in the Flight Stakes before going to the Reginald Allen where she was wide and doing work, but fought on quite gamely in defeat I thought behind Forbidden Love. Tricky draw once again, but has class and provided she gets cover from the gate, think she wins.

4 Sweet Reply (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS) is becoming costly from a punters perspective but she is racing very well and is deserving of a win. Arguably should have won last time out on the Kenso track, but couldn’t get clear of the leader and eventual winners heels, but got clear late and charged to just miss. Deserves a win and gets her chance.

3 Twain’s Express (Bet Now: $4.60 TOP ODDS) is a John McArdle trained filly that has finished runner up in both runs back from a spell, the latest coming on Cox Plate Day at the Valley where she looked all over a winner when she loomed, but couldn’t quite get past La Mexicana. Bit short for my liking in early betting but concede she’s a leading chance.

11 Aswaat (Bet Now: $15.00 TOP ODDS) is a daughter of Deep Field for the Hayes/Dabernig team that resumes. This girl had two runs in the Winter to start her career, placing on debut behind Agreeable at Geelong before making a mess of them on the Synthetic at Pakenham. Spelled, given a good break and has had three jumpouts to get her ready, so watch the market.

With due respect to the runners, this is an awful race. I’ll have a throw at the stumps in the shape of 6 Seeress (Bet Now: $8.00 TOP ODDS) for the George Osborne camp. Had a three run Winter prep, with the highlight being her brilliant first up maiden win at Ballarat on the Synthetic. Far from disgraced at the Valley next time out before being outclassed in the Quezette. Wasn’t asked for much in a Tatura jumpout. Can see her sitting off the speed and finishing off strongly.

Back to 1000m I do like for 1 Hard Landing (Bet Now: $4.00 TOP ODDS), who brings the class into the field. Won well fresh at the Valley before a couple of subsequent Stakes outings where he didn’t really fire a shot. Think the short course is his go in life, he drops miles in grade/depth and is trained here, so would be familiar with the straight track.

2 Mr Moppett (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS) can bounce back here. Put together a couple of sharp wins at Corowa and Leeton respectively before contesting a Highway at Randwick when wide with cover and battling away pretty well in defeat behind Air Marshal. Stable finds Pike to steer and this race has little to no depth, so he doesn’t need to be anything special to be competitive.

Michael Hickmott is the form trainer across Australia so far this season so when he brings one over, the ears are pricked and he brings over 9 Echoes In Eternity (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS). She debuted last Saturday on the Parks track where she was as green as grass but once she balanced up, loved the way she attacked the line. Stable finds Bossy to steer and this isn’t a strong race.

Bludger of a staying race, but the one with upside is 2 Knights Order (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS). WaterBott trained stayer that made his debut in the Port Macquarie Cup and was really good in defeat behind stablemate Entente before going to the City Tatts Cup at Randwick where he was backed at a price and the move proved spot on as he led throughout and was too good. Leads these for fun and off the last run, 2800m should be okay.

1 Djukon (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) ran third to Knights Order in that race mentioned above and I thought his run had merit to it. Was chasing from a fair way out and he’s not really a horse who likes wet ground, so for him to keep chipping away and finish third was a run that was good. Does no work from the gate and firmer footing helps his cause.

10 Yulong Rising (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS) should be suited up in trip. Both runs back from a spell have come over 2000m, the latest on Blue Sapphire Day at Caulfield when closing off strongly behind Vegas Knight. Far from disgraced in the Adelaide Cup last prep, so the form around him reads solid enough for this and has more upside than most.

13 Monmouth (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS) is an absolute beauty for Allison Bennett that will have no trouble with the 2800m. Impressive winner over 3000m at the Valley two back before coming back to 2000m in the Moe Cup where he closed off strongly when third to Our Big Mike. Gets back up in trip and will stay all day. Definite winning chance.

2 Ain’tnodeeldun (Bet Now: $1.85) looks the one to beat. Would have been very competitive in the Derby but he got his Stakes win via the Hill Smith at Morphettville in what was a brutally run race. They walked home, but were entitled to given the brutal tempo. Has had over three weeks to recover from that gut buster and should prove very had to beat.

The one with upside and fresh legs is 8 Grinzinger Lord (Bet Now: $9.00). He was a heavily backed odds on pop when he raced over the mile on Seymour Cup Day at Kilmore but was beaten and I thought he had his chance, but he was strong to the line. Wasn’t exactly stopping, so 1800m on the home track I do like and he looks talented.

Back to 1800m I do like for 5 Ultimate Edition (Bet Now: $11.00). Tried to get him to the Derby via a Geelong Classic win. Was backed with real confidence late but didn’t run out the 2200m when sixth to Confrontational. Back in trip I think is a tick for him and he’ll land near the speed, hopefully controlling things. Last bit may test.

11 Made By Khan (Bet Now: $31.00) should love the rise to 1800m. Matt Laurie trained three year old that ran over the mile at Cranbourne on Pinker Pinker Night where he loomed large to beat New Choice, but that horse kicked on too strongly and was just too good. Form out of that maiden has been strong and on breeding, extra furlong looks ideal.

Want to go the way of 5 Savatoxl (Bet Now: $14.00), the NT star who has had a couple of runs now for the McEvoy camp. Close up third in the Balaklava Cup two back before coming back to 1200m at Caulfield on Blue Sapphire Day and not much went his way behind Coruscate. Should be noted too that in both of those runs, he was backed with real confidence, so hoping it’s third time lucky.

The gate makes things tricky for 2 Groundswell (Bet Now: $4.20) but the Freedman team has him back to somewhere near his best, and the gelding operation has clearly worked with him. He was dominant on Manikato Night at the Valley, sitting on speed and proving too good, running fast time, but that was the theme of the night. If he can get cover from the gate, he’ll take some beating.

6 Outrageous (Bet Now: $6.50) is a Team Hawkes trained gelding that resumes. This bloke hasn’t raced since June 27 when midfield in the Civic Stakes at Rosehill behind Trumbull, who is a pretty good horse, so the form reads okay. Two strong trials in Sydney to get ready and from gate one, he’ll do no work and prove hard to beat.

I think 4 Fox Hall (Bet Now: $34.00) can win again. Team McEvoy trained gelding that loved the field of four set up a few weeks ago at Morphettville, sitting in the 1/1 before peeling wider and in a driving go, with the hard 1400m-1600m runs under the belt, he finished best. Been a while between drinks prior, so hopefully he can go on with it.

This race evolves around 21 Tiger Moth (Bet Now: $6.50). Is he the boom horse that will get the balloon pop GIF trending on Twitter, or will it be champagne popping because we have witness a freak staying performance? I’m leaning towards the latter. Aidan O’Brien has won every big race in the world…apart from the Melbourne Cup. Should have won it last year with Il Paradiso, but think he can make amends in 2020. This bloke was outstanding in the Irish Derby before giving them a spanking at Leopardstown, getting the penalty to secure his spot. I think he can create history.

The query with 1 Anthony Van Dyck (Bet Now: $9.50) is that 3200m could be a stretch for him. Prior to the Caulfield Cup, I agreed. I thought that was his best chance to win a major, but afterwards, I think he’s right in this. Had to make a sustained run in the Caulfield Cup, and he was first up, so entitled to run out of puff late and that is what happened, plus the courage of Verry Elleegant kicked in. I think if he can sit in the first half a dozen, he’ll run a mighty race, even with the weight.

If you’re looking purely at weights, 7 Verry Elleegant (Bet Now: $12.00) is a near good thing. She is thrown in here considering her amazing record and really, should be carrying topweight. Outstanding Caulfield Cup triumph. She was there to be run down but showed great courage to fend off Anthony Van Dyck. I think 3200m will be fine for her, she can win on dry ground…there was disputing post Caulfield Cup that she’s not a champion…IMO she is, and a Melbourne Cup will cement her spot as one of the all time greats.

4 Master Of Reality (Bet Now: $18.00) went so close to winning the Melbourne Cup last year and had he not have hit the front so early in the straight he probably would have. He goes into this years edition of the race in as good if not better form but will have to carry a bit more weight. He is one of the class Internationals lining up in the race and they always prove hard to beat and it will be the same this year. A massive danger.

This is great placement by John Thompson with 15 Purple Sector (Bet Now: $2.60). Was totally against him in the Rosehill Cup due to the bog track, something he hates, but firmer footing here, in form, it’s a perfect race. He bolted up at Randwick and admittedly, he had the A1 run, but still had to take advantage of it, and he did it in spades. Confident he can take this out.

1 Homesman (Bet Now: $5.00) has the class to take this out. Do they run here, or wait for the Mackinnon? 62kg is an ask, but he’s earned it being the class factor, having won the Crystal Mile in impressive fashion on Cox Plate Day, leading throughout under a lovely ride from Ben Melham. The weight is a query, but hard to knock his resumption.

3 So Si Bon (Bet Now: $14.00) has been a beauty since joining the Hayes/Dabernig team, but there was a hint of the old So Si Bon on Manikato Night at the Valley. He was there to win on the turn but half turned it up when third to Iconoclasm. First time he has done that for a while, so the Blinkers off/Visors on set up I do find interesting.

7 Mr Satchmo (Bet Now: $31.00) is a very interesting runner. Former French galloper that makes his Australian debut for Chris Waller. His form from France doesn’t read too bad for a race like this and his Timeform rating would have him as around a Group lll/Group ll horse. That kind of rating is good enough to measure up here.

She’s sucked me in again…3 Lyre (Bet Now: $4.40) on top. She’s frustrating, but this just looks the perfect race for her. Ran in the Manikato and was a little unlucky I thought, but got going late and was good to the line and through it behind Hey Doc. 0/2 at 1400m, but the first time she got a mile back and the second run, she ran a close up fourth in the Group l Surround. Well and truly a life ban, throw away the key, if she can’t win here.

15 Cordilla (Bet Now: $3.80) is the one with upside and timing. Danny O’Brien trained mare that was luckless in her first two runs for the prep before going to Cranbourne Cup Day where Olly had her out of trouble from the outset and she was far too good for them, winning with a fair amount of arrogance. Horribly placed here at the weights, but they aren’t everything, and she loves Flemington.

2 Wild Vixen (Bet Now: $9.00) steps up a bit in grade/depth, but she was an impressive winner first up on Geelong Cup Day in the Black Pearl. Was four and five wide throughout yet still savaged the line from off the pace to win. Admittedly, out wide was the spot to be for the meeting, but the win was still impressive. Think she runs well here.

7 Delectation Girl (Bet Now: $31.00) is a big watch here. Formerly with Kris Lees and Australian Bloodstock, she now finds herself in Victoria under the care of Matt Cumani. Ran fourth in a Group l Coolmore Legacy during the Autumn, so we know she has quality. Can’t find a jumpout, but I think she’s a huge market watch here.

Fair rise in grade/depth for 17 The Astrologist (Bet Now: $5.50), but there was a bit of quality about his first up win on Geelong Cup Day. Sat on speed throughout and you would have been mistaken for thinking that fresh with 62.5kg, Willow would have cuddled and been kind. But no, he got going at the top of the straight to build the revs and was strong to the line. Smashed the clock as well, so it’s worth a crack at this kind of the race, and I think it’s very winnable if he runs up to the resumption.

6 Exhilarates (Bet Now: $7.00) finds a very winnable race here for James Cummings. I’d be somewhat forgiving of her first up run in the Northwood Plume behind Fiesta. Was three and four wide for the trip, keen in the run, and that early burn just told late in a fast run race. Think with a better run this time around, she can bounce back.

2 William Thomas (Bet Now: $5.50) has the class and that will carry him a long way here. Ran over 1200m on Manikato Night at the Valley and tried hard from the back, but couldn’t quite get there when third to the in form Sansom. 1200m is as far as he wants it, but the straight course should suit, sit off the speed and launch late.

Good test here for 16 One More Jack (Bet Now: $8.50), but he’s been an absolute revelation in Adelaide this year. Hasn’t raced since October 3 when winning his sixth race of the year, leading throughout, but I will say that meeting had a real bias towards those on speed/rail. Was down to run a couple of Saturdays back, but the race was cancelled, so has had a tick over trial, and looked in great order.

BEST BET: Race Five Number 2 Ain’tnodeeldun

NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 3 Lyre

LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 5 Savatoxl

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 11, 12, 21

Leg Two: 1, 3, 5, 6, 15

Leg Three: 3, 15

Leg Four: 2, 6, 16, 17

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